FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress

[Nyvin]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

Very Competitive???  No.   FL-27 voted 59-39 Clinton.    This should be one of the easiest districts in the whole country for Dems to flip without IRL,  especially with Trump in the White House.

[Nyvin]

The Democrat will win this seat for now. But soon rick scott will make appointments to the fl supremergency court and there will be wonderful gerrymandering.

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.

[Nyvin]

Newsflash: Dems are weak as heck on the local level in Florida. We won't be winning the governorship in 2018. We have come close several times, but no cigar, and this time won't be different. The dems have very weak potentials while the republicans have very strong potentials. The state is battleground in presidential elections, and lean D with Bill Nelson's seat, but besides that, Florida is a ruby red state on all other levels.

Gwen Graham is absolutely capable of winning the Governor's seat in 2018.  

Granted,  the FL Dem party's clownish and inept reputation is a valid concern.  

[Nyvin]

Anitere Flores is probably the best Republican candidate for FL-27.   Not really sure on the Democratic side.   Can Jose Rodriguez run here?

Edit - Annette Taddeo should stick to running in FL-26 since that's going to be the more difficult race now.

[Nyvin]

IRL issues a brutal statement on Trumpcare:

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I imagine this will appear in ads against the two other SoFL Republicans.

Curbello will have a race on his hands. Diaz-Balart is untouchable though.

No,  I expect they'll both be competitive.   Diaz-Balart is not an entrenched incumbent, and FL-25 isn't heavily conservative anymore.

[Nyvin]

FL-25 only barely voted for Trump and that was because of the Collier County portion which is more Republican than Miami-Dade County. More likely than not it will be contested, since Democrats have a limited offense list to play from.

Take a bare Trump win and add Diaz-Balart performing at least 10 points better among hispanics and that district looks a lot less contestable.

If the Democrats can't even contest a district Trump won by not even 2 points then what the heck are they supposed to do?

There's also this:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/860130572890517504

[Nyvin]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

Flores was probably their best candidate to run....I wonder who they go to now?