Is Trump hurting Republicans' long time prospect? (user search)
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  Is Trump hurting Republicans' long time prospect? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Trump hurting Republicans' long time prospect?  (Read 6226 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,720
United States


« on: January 26, 2017, 11:31:58 PM »

Trump actually did better than expected with the youth vote in certain key states according to CNN exit polls.

Wisconsin: he won 18-24 year olds 45-43 points.

Minnesota: he won 18-24 year olds 48-43 (the only other age group that voted for Trump was the 50-64 demographic).

Pennsylvania: he lost 18-24 year olds 50-45, but this was noticeably better than how he performed among 25-29 year olds (lost 53-40) and 30-39 year olds (lost 54-40).

Given that people generally become more conservative and not less as they grow up I'd say he's in a pretty good spot in the rust belt.

All he has to do in 2020 is hold Florida and flip Minnesota and he can afford to lose NC, Arizona, and Georgia.

People stop changing their political beliefs sometime in their late twenties to early thirties.   Most of the change occurs between the ages of 16 and 25.    Which way it changes depends on the social/economic environment and is not constant.

It's a myth that people get more conservative or liberal as they age...the current events around them have less and less impact on their beliefs as they age and that's about all that happens.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,720
United States


« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2017, 11:44:49 PM »

Trump is helping the Republicans' long-time prospect enormously by taking actions to reduce Democrat immigration. Immigration is the single largest long-term threat to the GOP.

You do understand that 3/4 of Mexican Americans are legal native born citizens right and are among the fastest growing demographics while white voters are set to decrease in 2024? And that the Great Migration from 1965-2005 is irreversible? Yes?

Your palpable fear of the future of minority majority America is entertaining.

-If I wanted to live in Mexico, I would have moved there. No thanks.

The migration from 1965-2005 may not be reversible. The migrations after 2016 can be prevented.

There is currently no net gain of migration from Mexico to the US....their youth bulge is mostly over.

https://populationpyramid.net/mexico/2016/
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