Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed (user search)
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  Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed (search mode)
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Author Topic: Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed  (Read 1634 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,704
United States


« on: June 02, 2016, 03:08:25 PM »

Let's look at this graph more carefully.



In 2012 it shows about 46% Dem, 24% Pub and 30% independent. The 2012 result was 67% Dem among Asians/Other, so that says about 70% of the self-described independent Asian vote went Dem.

For 2016 the graph shows about 62% Dem, still 24% Pub, but only 14% independent. The self-described independents from 2012 are now committing to the Dems in a way that reflects their actual voting behavior. A 67% Dem vote in Nov 2016 just as in 2012 would be consistent with the remaining pool of independents. If the remaining independents still broke 70% for the Dems the 2016 vote would rise to 72% Dem. Reality is probably somewhere in between those two points, perhaps like 70% Asians for the Dems.

This is probably true.    There is going to be "some" movement toward the Dems due to Trump, but probably not double digits worth like the graph suggests.

If anything this shows that the days of the Asian vote being considered "swing" are pretty much over.   That's the more important aspect to take from it.
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