Sanchez ends up winning CA Senate in 2016?

[Nyvin]

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Politics-Voices/2015/1124/A-sleeper-Senate-race-in-California

Basically the idea that there are multiple Republican candidates to divide the vote, preventing any of them from beating Sanchez or Harris.   Sanchez and Harris end up facing each other in the GE, and Republican voters side with Sanchez (since Harris is much more liberal than Sanchez) and thus Sanchez awkwardly wins the Senate seat in 2016.   

Think this is probable?

[Nyvin]

As it stands, the opposite's more likely. This is Safe D as long as one of them makes it past the run off.

I don't see any scenario where at least Harris doesn't make the top two.    She regularly polls around 30% with all the Republicans polling in the single digits.  

Also Sanchez is easily second.    There will have to be significant winnowing on the Republican side for one of them to slip into the General.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/ca/california_senate_primary-5338.html