If anyone doesn't mind, I have a question about these maps and others. What are the chances Democrats will be able to obtain a majority in the State Senate with these new maps? Because the way this reads, it almost seems like the base composition could now be 18 (D) / 22 (R) or 19 (D) / 21 (R). Sort of how the Virginia State Senate is. Given this, a bare majority on a good year does indeed at least seem possible.
Also, how come the State House maps were never challenged? If the State Senate maps were gerrymandered, I would think the State House maps would at least be vulnerable to a challenge (only because to me, it would seem too unrealistic for one chamber to rig their maps and the other to not). I mean, Republicans have a pretty large majority in the State House but now with the State Senate, it looks very close. How can there be such a large discrepancy?
It's hard to imagine the Democrats
not winning at least 17 seats with the new map. Getting the last 4 will probably be tricky though.
The open seats Obama won marginally in 2012 will obviously be top targets, SD-7 and SD-17. Also it looks like a lot of the seats in the southern half of Miami-Dade will be key too, relying on the continuing trend of Hispanic's shift leftward there.
There's definitely a possibility of a Dem majority, if not in 2016, then certainly by 2020.
The good news is that none of the Democrat's areas are trending Republican except maybe SD-7. And a lot of the marginal seats in the Miami and Central Florida area actually shifted leftward from 2008 to 2012.
