FL: Rereredistricting

[Nyvin]

Could the anti gerrymandering amendment be invalidated by the federal supreme court?

No. It is within the provenance of the states to do what they want, as long as it does not screw minorities per the US Constitution, or the VRA statute, and honors the one person, one vote, rule.

States also have to abide by the Uniform Congressional District Act.   Of course nothing in the FL Fair Districts Amendment goes against that law at all.   

Which by the way....why don't we ever hear of lawsuits against states for not making congressional districts "Reasonably Compact Territory" like the law states they need to?   

[Nyvin]

The latest pawn move is that Senator Galvano instructed staff to come up with a map with certain parameters intended to accommodate the concerns of both the Senate and the House, and staff came up with this. The House leader on redistricting thinks it has potential. It most certainly does from a Pub partisan standpoint. FL-09 on the map per my calculations has about a dead even PVI (46% McCain). So if this map flies, the Dems pick up FL-10, lose FL-02, are favored to win FL-13, and FL-09 is a tossup, so the Pubs either break even, or lose one seat out of the whole thing.

If FL-9 was a swing seat in the 2008 election....then by now it's almost for sure going to lean Dem with the mass influx of Puerto Ricans to the area, especially Osceola County. 

[Nyvin]

9/24/2015 Part 2

House Attorney questions Jason Poreda, Staff Director of Joint Committee on Redistricting.

Poreda was one of the three map drawers, and he had the mouse about 95% of the time.

He described how they were isolated, including going so far as to re-key the doors, with only two keys.

He confirmed that they did no political analysis except necessary to comply with the VRA.

Also neither set of plaintiffs submitted a map, though there were about a dozen public submission.

He then explained the process by which 26 and 27 were drawn. They started by putting Homestead in both districts. They chose to put it in 26 since that gave the best convex-hull compactness. If Homestead were in 27, it would stick out from the southern tip. They then took the previous boundary and came up the Florida Turnpike until they got enough population.

When doing this, they only had Total Population turned on. He had know knowledge of the demographics of the area that was moved into FL-27, which turns out to be three areas that are predominately black. The effect was to keep FL-26 Republican, despite including all of Homestead.

That kinda smells like a BS story toward the end, but what else is he supposed to say I guess.

[Nyvin]

The first Senate map is the cleanest map, and also gives the Hispanics in FL-9 the best representation.   

The House Map isn't all that much different though.    I really believe FL-9 will actually end up being a safe Dem seat regardless since there is such a massive influx of Puerto Ricans into the area, so it's really moot which map is chosen in the end.   Going off the 2010 Census does have it's limitations.

[Nyvin]

I listened to some of the final argument.

1. The House and Senate counsel as to CD 26 and 27 pounded hard, and I think effectively, that the odds of electing an Hispanic in CD 26 would be diminished, because the district moves 2 points to the Dems, and the Hispanics do not have the ability to nominate an Hispanic in the Dem primary, unless the Dem party realizes that it has to, for that candidate to win the General. With the district leaning Dem, that incentive is degraded, increasing the odds that a white or black Dem will be dominated, who then will win the General over the Hispanic Pub. Therefore there is illegal retrogression in the ability of Hispanics to elect a candidate of their choice.

That's kinda putting a spin on it.   The hispanic vote in FL-26 is pretty evenly divided, the district voted 54% Obama in 2012 and is 68% hispanic (mostly Cuban).    Neither the Democratic Primary "or" the GOP primary can give the ability to nominate a hispanic (for sure).   

The idea that since the Democrats "can't" nominate a hispanic makes the redistricting moves illegal is screwy because it just assumes the GOP "can".    The only thing they have to base that assumption off of is the incumbent. 

[Nyvin]

The first Senate map is the cleanest map, and also gives the Hispanics in FL-9 the best representation.   

The House Map isn't all that much different though.    I really believe FL-9 will actually end up being a safe Dem seat regardless since there is such a massive influx of Puerto Ricans into the area, so it's really moot which map is chosen in the end.   Going off the 2010 Census does have it's limitations.

The second senate map has better metrics.

As in county chops?   What would the metrics be?

[Nyvin]

So it looks like the Dems will pick up FL-10, FL-13, and FL-26 in the next election, and potentially pick up FL-7 and FL-27 when the incumbents retire.

The GOP will pick up FL-2 and probably FL-18, but those seats were always fluke wins anyway.

I'm fairly certain FL-9 will stay Dem since the Puerto Rican population there is exploding (literally tens of thousands more each year...).

In the end it might only be 1 net seat initially....but the new map looks much more promising and fair than the old one, and the seats that the Dems hold will have actual Dem majorities in them rather than relying on cross over voters.  

Good changes overall!

[Nyvin]

I would treat Graham and probably also Murphy as flukes, in which case the original map was basically 18R/8D/1T going by PVI.  Now, we will have 16R/11D going by PVI or maybe even 15R/11D/1T with the new FL-07 being left of the current FL-18 and having been won twice by Obama.  Also, note that the 2 most marginal D-PVI districts, FL-09 and FL-26 are currently moving left at 100 mph.  In PVI terms, it looks like a big win for Democrats.

Wow,  I pretty much just double posted you, lol.   I didn't read yours before I posted mine though...

[Nyvin]

The new CD-26 is D+5 PVI using 2012 numbers,  there's no way Curbelo can win with that!

CD-9 is D+5 also,  and trending Dem fast...very likely Dems will hold that seat.

CD-5 is D+13, lol,   Brown was worried a Republican was going to win here, yeah, okay.

Here's a really good map of the new districts:

http://www.brianamos.com/cp1/

[Nyvin]

The only way this could get any better is if the Democrats found a way to kick Corrinne Brown to the curb in 2016.

[Nyvin]

So for the state Senate:

The Tampa district will get broken up (currently 77% Obama '12), and the Dems will pick up the St Petersburg seat, since that district next door is 50.2% Obama '12.      It even takes the same section of St Petersburg (the heavy black area...) that CD14 did in the current congressional map!    That one is definitely a no brainer.

In Orlando you can draw district 15 more Dem by shifting the Black-Hispanic district north of it,  since I doubt they'll touch the Hispanic majority district that's 69% Obama '12 to the east.   Not as sure on that though.

In Southeast FL you can break up district 39 which is currently 72% Dem (with multiple snake-like extensions),  and lower the BVAP in district 36 (currently 58.3% BVAP).     Those two changes will surely mix things up in that area quite a bit, hard to say what the Dems will get out of that though.    I'm thinking at least 1 of the 3 GOP seats in that area will flip though,  since they're all so marginal already.

[Nyvin]

Senate districts are smaller, and you may be able to maintain a black opportunity district crossing Tampa Bay. FL-14 is a Hispanic-Black coalition district that elects a white congresswoman.

It's false that you cannot have a black opportunity district without crossing the Tampa Bay,  the GOP is using old primary data to come up with that myth to protect the incumbent there.   ESPECIALLY considering the current senate seat isn't even black majority, it's just coalition.     It's incredibly easy to make a SD with under 50% WVAP.  

It'll get blown over like the congressional map did, and the Fair Districts amendment will win.

I think they are protected seats.

They're only protected to be hispanic majority.   CD-26 was a protected seat as well, in the new map, CP-1, it has a PVI of D+5.    

[Nyvin]

FL GOP is desperately trying to protect district 22's incumbent....every single draft keeps the St Petersburg chop across the bay....really lame!

http://www.brianamos.com/senatemaps/#

I really don't expect it to stand though,   it's easy to demonstrate it's not needed.

[Nyvin]

The lawsuit about the Fair Districts amendment limiting freedom of speech has been rightly tossed out by the courts:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2015/10/federal-court-rejects-lawsuit-challenging-anti-gerrymandering-law.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

There goes that option for Republicans...

[Nyvin]

The lawsuit about the Fair Districts amendment limiting freedom of speech has been rightly tossed out by the courts:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2015/10/federal-court-rejects-lawsuit-challenging-anti-gerrymandering-law.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

There goes that option for Republicans...

Except that it will be appealed presumably. It's an interesting case. The issue is sure, you can speak to anyone, but if you speak to the wrong person, it taints the map. In the end it is kind of an evidentiary issue I guess, as to whether it really tainted the map. If the case had been framed that the only evidence of taint was the conversation itself, perhaps that would be deemed an unacceptable chilling effect on speech. But I think here there is more evidence of taint, than just conversations.

A majority (8D-3R) of active judges on the 11th Circuit Court are Democrat appointed judges....but good luck with that.

[Nyvin]

Other than the Tampa area,  Senate Draft 9078 looks the best.    It's 21R-19D (around that at least).    If the Tampa-St Petersburg district doesn't hold up and is given to the Dems it'd almost be an evenly divided map (which "Florida" should be anyway).    Although it'd still favor the Republicans slightly.

[Nyvin]

Other than the Tampa area,  Senate Draft 9078 looks the best.    It's 21R-19D (around that at least).    If the Tampa-St Petersburg district doesn't hold up and is given to the Dems it'd almost be an evenly divided map (which "Florida" should be anyway).    Although it'd still favor the Republicans slightly.

21 R - 19 D? That's 40 districts! I thought that Florida only had 27?

It's for the state Senate.

[Nyvin]

The vote was 16-23 against the compromise map.    Looks like the FLGOP blew it again.

[Nyvin]

It'd be good to know how much of Florida's taxpayer money has been wasted on all these failed special legislative sessions.

[Nyvin]

So after the trial on December 14th,  will the maps be official and we'll know what's decided on?

[Nyvin]

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Awesome news!

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/local/florida/2015/12/02/florida-supreme-court-approves-new-congressional-map/76672702/

[Nyvin]

Sabato's new ratings:



Whoever redistricted these is kind of an a**hole; they basically just shoved out two incumbents entirely. As much as I dislike Webster, this is just cruel. Especially with Graham.

Graham really did get screwed, and that does suck since she's an awesome rep.

Webster doesn't actually have it all that bad,  I'm thinking he's gonna move to FL-11 since Nugent is retiring.  

Graham really needs to convince Murphy to drop out of the Senate race so she can run in it.    That way he can stay in FL-18 and she has an election she can win.

[Nyvin]

So after the trial on December 14th,  will the maps be official and we'll know what's decided on?

I suspect it will be appealed to the SCOFLA.

The Supreme Court has not ruled on the congressional district map, even though they had the hearing three weeks ago.

They issued their opinion. SCOFLA Opinion (PDF)

Take a look at the map on page 71 and, then the one on page 67 and see if you notice anything.

It is of interest that they said (page 67, footnote 11) the diminishment standard (AKA Section 5) does not apply if the minority is not cohesive. This suggests that at least some parts of the Gingles test are applicable to retrogression claims.

But it would also imply that Florida could be required to satisfy a Section 2 challenge based on the overall Hispanic population in Miami-Dade County.

The senate district that crosses Tampa Bay would be illegal under the current Florida Constitution, and not required under Section 2 of the VRA, because it is not compact. But can the non-retrogression standard be used to maintain the existing district?

That's an interesting opinion piece.   I read through a good portion of it.   

They directly brought up the gerrymandering issue on page 88.   

[Nyvin]

The final court order was issued today for the congressional maps....CP-1 is official -

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2015/12/23/final-order-issued-in-congressional-redistricting/

[Nyvin]

The judge picked map CPS4a....which was pretty favorable to the plaintiffs.   It has 21 districts that Obama won in 2012, although a number of those are marginal wins.   

It creates a competitive district in SD-7 around Alachua county,   which is an open seat in 2016.

Pretty good map,  but still disappointed they are still crossing the tampa bay with the AA district.