PPP - Burr leads by double digits (!) against everyone

[Nyvin]

NC probably won't even be competitive in 2016. It IS no "swing state" after all and this Senate race should be rated Likely Republican. However, Burr is by no means safe, he could still end up like Dole or Hagan.

Yep. In 2008, what everyone thought was NC becoming purple was just really part of the purple-atlas blue pattern it has had since the election of John Edwards in 1998 - the margins aren't that big and dems get a lucky break sometimes, but a clear republican leaning does exist.

I don't know, it's one of the fastest growing states in the country.   All those new voters have to affect the state in some way or another.   They did have more Democratic votes for House reps in 2012 than GOP ones.   

[Nyvin]

Even in a GOP wave year Tillis only beat Hagan by 1.5%,  if it were a climate more favorable to democrats it's easy to say Hagan could've won.

[Nyvin]

NC probably won't even be competitive in 2016. It IS no "swing state" after all and this Senate race should be rated Likely Republican. However, Burr is by no means safe, he could still end up like Dole or Hagan.

Yep. In 2008, what everyone thought was NC becoming purple was just really part of the purple-atlas blue pattern it has had since the election of John Edwards in 1998 - the margins aren't that big and dems get a lucky break sometimes, but a clear republican leaning does exist.

What the heck are you talking about? North Carolina has been trending Democratic for years now.

Maybe slightly, but it is not a purple state. It has been purple-atlas blue since 98, and that remains true today.

Obviously you're confused. North Carolina was not competitive in 2000 and 2004, hence it was not a purple state.
But it was in 2008 and 2012, hence it was.

Also, following your logic Illinois is a purple state since it elected Mark Kirk.

Again, purple-blue/red, not purple. Neither NC nor IL are purple states, but looking at presidential and senate combined, it is unfair to categorize them as solid red/blue, so the purple-blue/red state defintion is used. The only state that is solid one way or the other despite a recent counterexample in presidential/senate races is MA, to which I grant a special exception because Coakley was a beyond horrible nominee.

I don't really buy that either though, back in the 2006-2009 period a plethora of GOP states had Democratic governors and a number of GOP states had Democratic Senators,  that didn't change whether or not they were known as solid red/blue.

Governors and to a lesser extent Senators are elected largely on the national/state mood, especially governors since they aren't as attached to the national party.    

[Nyvin]

NC probably won't even be competitive in 2016. It IS no "swing state" after all and this Senate race should be rated Likely Republican. However, Burr is by no means safe, he could still end up like Dole or Hagan.

Yep. In 2008, what everyone thought was NC becoming purple was just really part of the purple-atlas blue pattern it has had since the election of John Edwards in 1998 - the margins aren't that big and dems get a lucky break sometimes, but a clear republican leaning does exist.

What the heck are you talking about? North Carolina has been trending Democratic for years now.

Maybe slightly, but it is not a purple state. It has been purple-atlas blue since 98, and that remains true today.

NC probably won't even be competitive in 2016. It IS no "swing state" after all and this Senate race should be rated Likely Republican. However, Burr is by no means safe, he could still end up like Dole or Hagan.

Yep. In 2008, what everyone thought was NC becoming purple was just really part of the purple-atlas blue pattern it has had since the election of John Edwards in 1998 - the margins aren't that big and dems get a lucky break sometimes, but a clear republican leaning does exist.

What the heck are you talking about? North Carolina has been trending Democratic for years now.

Don't you know that if a Republican wins by 1.5% in a huge Republican wave year, its obviously trending Republican!!!

Seriously though, its a swing state just as much as Pennsylvania is.

Dude, we are talking about Thom freaking Thillis. He is an ABSOLUTELY terrible candidate and ran against a well-organized Hagan campaign with a great ground game. Black turnout was high, too. She still lost. Why? Because the state is just very Republican.

He won because it was a low turnout midterm in a GOP wave year during the sixth year of a democrat president.

The national environment favored him heavily.   North Carolina isn't very Republican or he would've won by a lot more than 1.5%.

Even in 2012 for president Romney only won by around 2%,  that's a lot less than states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and those two states are always called swing states.