Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

My current prediction, but I will wait for the debate of tonight and tomorrow and possible any polls after the clash with Turkey to give a definite prediction

VVD 27
PVV 24
CDA 19
GL 17
D66 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50+ 5
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 1

[SunSt0rm]

Oh, first poll after diplomatic crisis with Turkey, hardly any changes. There is a chance the PvdA will get single digits lol

EenVandaag
VVD 24
PVV 24
CDA 21 (+1)
D66 16
GL 16
SP 16 (+1)
PvdA 10 (-2)
CU 7
PvdD 5 (+1)
50+ 5
SGP 3
Denk 1
Fvd 1
PP 1
VNL 0 (-1)

58% are certain of their vote, 32% doubt between several parties, 11% have no idea yet

[SunSt0rm]

De Hond poll does see a changes in its poll

VVD 27 (+3)
PVV 24 (+2)
CDA 21 (-1)
GL 19 (-1)
D66 16 (-1)
SP 14 (-1)
PvdA 9
CU 5
50+ 4 (-1)
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 2

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-03-13.pdf

[SunSt0rm]

A new coalition will almost certaintly consist of VVD+CDA+D66 plus a combination of PvdA, GL or/and CU. In addition SGP can always give outside support if necessary

[SunSt0rm]

I dont think many expect the current coalition make it through it, so who knows. I think it depends which coalition will be formed. If its VVD+CDA+D66+CU with outside support of SGP, i think such a coalition can be stable as the social issues will be discussed and agreed beforehand. A coalition with PvdA or GL will be more unstable. 2019 will be a year to watch for any coalition as the senete is elected again.

[SunSt0rm]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

Obviously. I haven't seen the debate myself, but everyone I talked to thought Rutte had the upper hand.

I also thought it was Rutte who had the upper hand as well

[SunSt0rm]

The most loyal elderlies are CDA voters who do turn out, not 50Plus voters, who David says are similar to PVV and SP voters. I am quite suprise about the turnout of D66 expected it higher, higher than GL.

Tonight it will be the last debate. 10 debates will be hold

Undercard debate:
SGP vs 50Plus vs Nieuwe Wegen
PvdD vs Denk vs VNL

Main debate
Klaver (GL) vs Buma (CDA) about Income difference
Pechtold (D66) vs Roemer (SP) about Europe
Segers (CU) vs Rutte (VVD) about Energy
Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Buma (CDA) vs Pechtold (D66) about Security
Roemer (SP) vs Asscher (PvdA) about Health Care
Rutte (VVD) vs Klaver (GL) about Refugees
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

Debate between VNL and Denk will be hilarious. Furthermore, debates between Asscher vs Wilders Buma vs Pechtold and Rutte vs Klaver will be interesting

[SunSt0rm]

Kuzu just decided to skip the kiddie table debate. Truly the mirror image of the man he hates so much. VNL are f**ked. For them, everything depended on Roos roasting Kuzu.

And this is I&O's final poll, big if true. VVD to 27 (+1), PVV to 16 (-4). Let's remember that this poll structurally underpolls both the combined right and the PVV, though. I also feel this has outlier written all over it, but who knows? Highest figure = potential high on the basis of this poll, median figure = current estimate on the basis of this poll, lowest figure = potential low on the basis of this poll.

VNL is screwed, their only advantage to FvD is that they would debate with Denk.

Poll is too good to be true. Purple plus would even have a majority in this poll

[SunSt0rm]

Final Poll De Hond

[SunSt0rm]

Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

 
 
Why do they deliver these topics to Wilders on a silver platter? Everyone knows his positions about Islam. Let him talk about Health Care or Income Inequality instead. 
 
 
About the I&O poll: A bump for Rutte makes sense. He has proven to quite some right-wing voters that he is willing to fight back when countries like Turkey go to far. That being said I agree that the PVV is to weak in that poll. I can see them coming in 3rd or maybe 4th if GL has a good turnout, but 5th is unrealistic.

The first person chooses the topic. So Asscher chose to debate about integration and Wilders chose to debate about Islam with Segers

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos final Poll

VVD 29 (+3)
CDA 23 (+2)
PVV 20 (-3)
D66 18 (+1)
SP 15 (+2)
GL 15 (+1)
PvdA 9 (-2)
CU 5 (-2)
50Plus 5 (-1)
SGP 4 (-1)
PvdD 4
DENK 2
FvD 1

VVD+CDA+D66+CU 75 seats

[SunSt0rm]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

Wilders was quite good, he roasted Asscher, who was dreadful. Roemer was also strong. Buma was awkward with the debate with Pechtold. Asscher is the biggest loser and I may believe now the PvdA will reach single seats now

[SunSt0rm]

Final prediction
VVD 29
PVV 23
CDA 21
D66 16
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 10
CU 6
50+ 5
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 1

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GL
Largest in Utrecht (city): GL
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: CDA
Largest in Overijssel: CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Nijmegen
Best D66 municipality? Saba (if it counts otherwise Wageningen)
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Almere
Best DENK municipality? Rotterdam
Best VNL municipality? Edam-Volendam
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK & FvD

[SunSt0rm]

Nice, glad to see some more people are making predictions! Is it going to be VVD or D66 for you?

D66, feel closer with them and want to give them a stronger position in the negotiation of a possible centre right coalition with CU and SGP. I trust Buma and also Pechtold to refuse coalition with SP and trust VVD to win against PVV

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout at 10:30 is 15% according to Ipsos, which is 2% higher than in 2012

[SunSt0rm]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

[SunSt0rm]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

Thx.

Will the results today also be published here, or is there another page ?

No, live results will be at nos.nl

[SunSt0rm]

The Hague: 23.4% at 12. 2012: 19.3%. If this is the pattern outside big cities too, this may be going into the high 70s.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

High turnout is usually good for PVV, SP and 50Plus, and it could be good for DENK too. However, no certainty here, of course.

It could also benefit GL and to a lesser extent D66, who will attract the youth vote that dont vote very often. Higher turnout will disadvantageous CDa, CU and SGP

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam 25.8% at 1 PM, 14.1% in 2012. WOW.

Wow, turnout in the cities is HUGE. This could benefit GL & D66

[SunSt0rm]

Does the Dutch exit poll have a good history of accuracy?

I read it has a huge sample size, 38,000.

Is it face to face or sample ballot?

Quite good, it may underestimate the PVV a bit.

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout 13:45 33% according to Ipsos, in 2012 it was only 27%

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout in Eindhoven at 27.16%, in 2010 it was 25.68%. Maybe, the south is not turning up like the rest of the country?

[SunSt0rm]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Update of the most 'average' town, its still too early as most votes still have to be casted and different voters turn out at different times

VVD: 23,4%
D66: 13,8%
CDA: 13,0%
PVV: 11,9%
SP: 9,9%
PvdA: 8,8%
GroenLinks: 6,1%
50Plus: 4,4%
Christenunie: 3,3%
Partij voor de Dieren: 1,9%
Forum voor Democratie: 1,7%
DENK: 1,1%
Piratenpartij: 0,6%
SGP: 0,3%

[SunSt0rm]

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

Absolutely. Amsterdam east, which is multiculti neighbor

[SunSt0rm]

Which party is thought to benefit most from a very high turnout?

Difficult to say. Most logic are PVV, GL and Denk. But could also be VVD as people wants to block Wilders to become 1st