Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

Ok, in that way. Still very improbable as, I think Rutte leadership skills are needed, which everyone appreciates of him. I dont think the PM position has ever been negotiated since the 70s. And I dont think the VVD will accept that it will be negotiated if they become the largest non-PVV.

[SunSt0rm]

Wilders is avoiding a debate again, this time he won't attend the RTL debate on March 5th, where the 8 biggest parties will debate. He wont attend the debate, because RTL interviewed his brother, who was critical to him. Wilders will now only attend two debates. the one-to-one debate with Rutte on the 13th and the final debate at NOS.

[SunSt0rm]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

D66 is very eager to govern this time and its the last opportunity for Pechtold who already states he will resign if D66 wont be part of the next government. Moreover, D66 is needed for almost any coalition. I think it depends on the coalition. Such a coalition, you mention here, wont do well for D66 and it would probably demand a lot of its point if it steps in such a coalition (this coalition wont have a majority now as well). However, I suspect that D66 will try to cover its left wing and have PvdA and/or GL as well. In a coalition like purple where both wings are covered, D66 will do well as a compromise will be moreorless the same as programme of D66 (like the current government). The same applies that D66 wants to cover its right wing as well when a centre-left government is proposed. Thankfully, CDA closed the door to a centre-left coalition with the SP.

[SunSt0rm]

50+ has made a joke of itself and has proposed a plan to lower the retirement age back to 65 by lowering the payments. I expect the inevitable decline of 50+ will come now, the PVV will probably profit from it.

[SunSt0rm]

In this time of global populist fervor, the most underplayed story of this election has to be the quite lousy performance of the SP and that, despite the imminent collapse of the PvdA. It's hard to pin this entirely on the seemingly uncharismatic Roemer.

Its remarkable indeed. Its mainly the fault of Roemer who is seen as a nice but incompetent leader. In every debate, he fails and forgets the numbers. Moreover, its pro-immigration stance is hurting as well, losing many voters to the PVV

[SunSt0rm]

FvD is a bigger threat to the establishment than the PVV in the long run if they manage to get a seat this election. When Wilders leaves politics, the party will be gone.

Tonight, the first tv debate will be held. Roemer, Klaver, Asscher, Pechtold and Buma will be present. Rutte and Wilders will not attend the debate as more than 4 parties were inivited to. Most important thing to watch: battle of the left parties and Buma who will present himself as VVD-light. This is going to be the most important debate for these outsiders to get momentum.

[SunSt0rm]

Eenvandaag also has a poll today. VVD & PVV equal now, and the largest party has less than 15% of the support now. 50+ implodes now as expected

VVD 22 (-1), PvdA 12 (-), PVV 22 (-4), CDA 19 (+1), SP 16 (+3), GL 15 (-), D66 17 (+1), CU 7 (+1). SGP 4 (-), PvdD 7 (+1), 50P 5 (-5), DENK 2 (+1), FvD 2 (+2).

[SunSt0rm]

I don't care for the two-horse race but I do care for a large PVV and a large VVD. Still hoping for the race to begin

Thank god, Wilders refuses to appear at any occurance so no two horse race can occur and besides he will slip more in the polls because of his refusal

[SunSt0rm]

I think the combination VVD+CDA+D66+PvdA (or VVD+CDA+D66+CU if it has a majority, but far from now) is most likely. I dont think GL will join such a coalition as Klaver is more left wing than Halsema and Sap were and the fact it had bad experience from the Kunduz coalition. I see the PvdA most likely joining such a coalition as Asscher is most open to work with the right now and I dont see him as a successfull opposition leader.

Two distnct coalitions are likely emerging after the election:
Centre right coalition: VVD+CDA+D66 plus combination of GL, PvdA and/or CU
Centre left coalition: CDA+D66+PvdA+GL+SP

The VVD, and I guees CDA and D66 are prefering the first option, while the left parties are second option. In this election, CDA and D66 are the real kingmakers who are both needed in any combination, they have momentum and are both slowly gaining in the polls as well. And my feeling is that CDA will only chose the second coalition, if the SP can be traded for the CU and Buma can become PM.

[SunSt0rm]

^ Worth noting that it was not Halsema who pulled the plug on Purple Plus in 2010 and that Sap only got 4 seats in 2012. The implication "if it didn't happen under Halsema it sure won't happen under Klaver" doesn't hold: GL were eager to govern, but at the time the VVD simply preferred the option with CDA and PVV. This time, the VVD will choose GL over the PVV. Your point with regard to the bad experience with Kunduz is fair, but I have the impression GroenLinks have "moved on" and seem very eager to govern, even with the VVD if necessary. I used to think a coalition with the PvdA was more likely than a coalition with GL, but that has changed.

A center-left coalition is not going to happen. Would be both illogical and electorally suicidal for the CDA, and D66 would much prefer to cooperate with the VVD too as they would form the "center" of a coalition with VVD, CDA and GL. Besides, if the VVD becomes the largest non-PVV party, they will have the initiative and others will probably follow.

I have the opposit feeling. I think GL under Halsema and Sap were eager to govern even with the right, but that it has changed since Klaver, who is not eager to govern with the right anymore. Klaver says he strives a government without the VVD. Asscher isnt very clear yet, and I think if he is more likely to take the gamble and continue to govern as he know he cant outshine Klaver or successor of Roemer as opposition leader. The party can always sacrifice Asscher for Aboutaleb 4 years later what they used to do.

I know a centre left coalition is not very likely, but if somehow CDA+D66+PvdA+GL+CU manage to get a majority with Buma as PM, I wouldnt rule that option out.

[SunSt0rm]

Poll about preferences coalitions, have no idea why the option 4 and 6 are polled lol.

VVD prefer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA
CDA perfer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA and VVD+CDA+D66+GL (but not very positively)
D66 prefer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA and VVD+CDA+D66+GL
PVDA prefer CDA+D66+PVDA+SP+GL and VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA (!)
GL+SP prefer CDA+D66+PVDA+SP+GL

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos poll
VVD 28 (-)
PVV 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+3)
D66 17 (+1)
GL 13 (-)
PvdA 12 (-1)
SP 12 (+1)
50+ 6 (-3)
CU 6 (-1)
SGP 5 (-) (lol)
PvvD 5 (+1)
Denk 1
FvD 1
VNL 1

[SunSt0rm]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

I wouldnt be against it

[SunSt0rm]

Economically, such a coalition would make sense. On social issues there will be troubles between D66 and CU/SGP. I hope D66 will demand a high price for such a coalition on social and environmental issues.

Its pretty embarrassing (which I am glad) that the PVV is not winning overwhelmingly in an era where populism is at his height.  

[SunSt0rm]

Buma is surging!

De Hond
PVV 25 (-4)
VVD 24 (-1)
CDA 21 (+3)
GL 17 (-1)
D66 17 (+3)
SP 13 (+2)
PvdA 10 (-2)
CU 5 (=)
PvvD 5 (+1)
50+ 5 (-1)
SGP 3 (=)
Denk 2 (=)
FvD 2 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

Trend: CDA & D66 gaining, PVV, 50+ losing

[SunSt0rm]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

lol, Wilders at 20% and Buma non existent.

[SunSt0rm]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

[SunSt0rm]

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

D66 are still ahead of GL in most polls, in some of them by a pretty substantial margin, so I think they would win both... but yes, those two municipalities will be close. GL will win Utrecht before they win Amsterdam, but I expect D66 to win both unless Klaver gets momentum on the left. The Hague will also be interesting since the VVD vote should hold up pretty well there (though VVD-PVV swings in the new district Leidschenveen-Ypenburg may be bigger). It will be a D66/VVD/PVV three-way race. Rotterdam seems a done deal.

I remember GL being slightly bigger than D66 in Utrecht and Amsterdam in the election of 2010 when they both got 10 seats.

Yea The Hague will be D66/VVD/PVV
Amsterdam & Utrech (and most university cities): D66/GL
Rotterdam: PVV
Eindhoven & Tilburg: D66/VVD/PVV (maybe also SP, if they do a bit better)

[SunSt0rm]

You may be right: the GL vote is much more urban whereas D66 are much stronger in suburbs, so even if GL and D66 end up with the same number of seats GL may have the edge in Amsterdam and especially Utrecht. But if D66 win three or more seats more than GL, they win Amsterdam and perhaps Utrecht too -- perhaps my views on this are too much colored by my skepticism of Klavermentum (i.e. the belief that he will end up with about 15 seats rather than about 20).

Eindhoven is an interesting one and I really don't know what to expect there. The SP came first there in the 2015 provincials and should not be underestimated either, but I think D66 have the edge now. The CDA/PVV -> VVD swings in Brabant were insane outside the big cities, particularly in the West. I expect big swings toward CDA and PVV there, though the VVD should still be able to be close to their 2010 level.

I am also sceptical about D66 as they may lose some seats in the final days compared to the current polls, although their campaign is fine now. They never manage to peak at the right moment.

Eindhoven is definetely going to be interesting. SP is normally doing great here, but I expect that there is SP/PVV swing outside the city centre. But I wouldnt rule the SP completely out, but I think PVV, VVD and D66 will perform better than the SP now.

In the west of Brabant, I expect the PVV will top CDA and VVD, while in the east outside Eindhoven and its suburbs it will be CDA country. I expect the VVD will be strongest in the Eindhoven suburbs and the area between the four big cities. VVD will easily take Breda and Den Bosch, while PVV will take Helmond. North East Brabant will be battle between CDA and SP.

[SunSt0rm]

Electoral map of the Netherlands



Rus belts will go to PVV in this map, Green Belts will be places D66 will be strong, but areas where the VVD should win outisde the cities. Green Belt in the south and in the east (gelderland) will be VVD/CDA battle outside the cities. Civil Belts are places where CDA will win and where the PvdA should hold some cities.

[SunSt0rm]

Tomorrow it will the Carre Debate (which I cant watch) between eight parties. VVD, CDA, D66, GL, SP, PvdA, 50+ and PvvD. Wilders wont be present, because of the interview of his brother and CU as it is sunday. Rutte will be present this time. Setting will be different from the first debate. Four subjects will be debated by only 4 parties each time. Each party will only engage in two debates.

Initially the setup would have look like this with Wilders, dont know if they changed it completely or just replace Wilders with Thieme (Animals). What to look for: Rutte vs Buma and battle between the left parties (its actually their last chance to change the momentum especially for PvdA)

Initially setup:
1. Copayments in the healthcare sector should be abolished
2. The Netherlands has protected its culture insufficiently
3. The retirement age should be lowered to 65
4. A stronger EU is more necessary than ever

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos poll is suggesting a possible VVD/PVV/CDA three way race instead of D66

VVD 26 (-2)
PVV 23 (-1)
CDA 21 (+2)
D66 17 (=)
GL 14 (+1)
SP 13 (+1)
PvdA 11 (-1)
CU 7 (+1)
50+ 6 (=)
SGP 5 (=)
PvvD 4 (-1)
Denk 1 (=)
FvD 1 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

[SunSt0rm]

[SunSt0rm]

De Hond sees a four way race in his poll. GL can become greatest according to his poll, lol.

[SunSt0rm]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

The party members wont allow it this time. The party almost split last time. And with the radical stances of Wilders nowadays it almost impossible that a deal can be striked this time