Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Leeuwarden:
Ouch, PvdA isnt going to win any municipality tonight

[SunSt0rm]

VVD barely wins Rotterdam.

Ouch, for the PVV, who were favorite to win Rotterdam

Denk bigger than PvdA 8.1%-6.4%

[SunSt0rm]

Urk as expected

[SunSt0rm]

Any chances for any other parties to get on the map?

No, Its only going to be VVD, CDA, D66, GL, PVV, CU and SGP. Leeuwarden was the only chance of PvdA, which they lose

The Hague

[SunSt0rm]

VVD can drill fot more gas. lol



VVD+CDA+D66+CU seems to get a majority!

[SunSt0rm]

Klaver expects to be on the sideline and be opposition leader at NOS

[SunSt0rm]

Denk at 8.1% in Rotterdam, Disguting, but think I can win the prediction game here

[SunSt0rm]

As expected D66 wins Wageningen

[SunSt0rm]

Denk at 8.1% in Rotterdam, Disguting, but think I can win the prediction game here

You expected Denk to win there, or you expected the VVD to win there?

No, I expected Rotterdam to be the best Denk municiipality, which becomes true, never expected VVD to win Rotterdam. Everyone expected PVV to win Rotterdam

[SunSt0rm]

lol D66 wins Utrecht, expected GL to win Utrecht instead of D66. I expected GL performing better in Utrecht than in Amsterdam

[SunSt0rm]

PVV wins Maastricht

[SunSt0rm]

Bladel goes to VVD, expected going to CDA. Noord Brabant will certainly vote for VVD now

[SunSt0rm]

Eindhvoen going to VVD now, biggest city in the South

[SunSt0rm]

VVD 32
CDA 19
PVV 19
D66 19
GL 15
SP 14
PvdA 10
CU 6

VVD+CDA+D66+Cu= 76

[SunSt0rm]

Amazing how good the exit poll is.

Yea, the exit poll are pretty accuate as in 2012 and 2010

[SunSt0rm]

Only 20% of the PvdA voters of 2012 voted PvdA yesterday. 17% went to GL, 13% to D66, 11% to SP, 5% to VVD and 5% to PVV.

[SunSt0rm]

Quite ok, underestimated VVD and D66 a bit at the expense of PVV, CDA and GL.

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I dont think Pechtold will get Interior as its currently a very small ministry with hardly any power. I think based on the results, CDA will get Finance and D66 probably will get Foreign Affair. Moreover, Zijlstra has said in an interview that he wants to become Minister of Social Affair.

[SunSt0rm]

Some other observations:
- PVV's gains in the south were very poor: the disappointed southern voter who used to vote CDA but voted PVV in 2010 and VVD in 2012 often came home for the CDA this time rather than voting for Wilders once again. This is a pattern we saw in the provincial election in 2015 too: stable result nationally, but small gains in the north and losses in Limburg. This time, outside the south, the party often only slightly underperformed on its 2010 result, and in Groningen they probably did better than in 2010. The PVV lost support in Wilders' hometown of Venlo (though the absolute number of votes will be higher this time).
- Was it Sunstorm or Rogier who expected Edam-Volendam to be FvD's best municipality? This prediction was spot on: 6.1%.
- The SP received more votes than the Jessiah movement. For all the talk about Klaver's #revolution, Emile Roemer leads the largest party on the left.
- Awful result for the left. SP, PvdA, GL and PvdD received 42 seats, which should be a record low and is barely more than what the PvdA got on their own in 2012. The Dutch are a bourgeois, center-right bunch. A VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition would be fitting in that regard.
- The Erdogan row probably gave Rutte a "Prime Minister bonus" at the expense of CDA and PVV.
- Turnout among young voters (18-24) was lower (!) than in 2012: 66%.

I predicted Edam-Volendam to be VNL best municipality unfortunately, but I was correct that one of the smaller right parties will do well there. Another observation is that the VVD has become largest in the province of Groningen, which is the left stronghold. CDA managed to win Overijssel and Friesland and the PVV won Limburg

[SunSt0rm]

I'm quite annoyed by the lack of good maps this time around. I want a map where I can see support for one party across the country by municipality to get a better understanding of the picture. I especially wonder whether the support pattern for the VVD is now different than in 2010, when they received a similar percentage of the vote. I'm also interested in seeing the PVV map across the country and compare it to the map in 2014, when they got 13.3% in the European election, and the 2011 map, when they got 12.4% in the provincials.

My first impression is that the PVV lost some voters in the South, while it gained in the northeast compared to 2010.

Map where the combined right won, Its mainly outside the Randstad

[SunSt0rm]

   So, what parties outside of the Fvd, attempted to coopt the PVV nationalist message, if any?  And which were the most against? (I'm guessing Denk of course, and GL?).

In this campaign VVD, SGP and especially CDA appealed to the PVV nationalist message. CDA had a plan which require children to sing the national anthem at school. PvdA had a weird message of progressive patriottism

[SunSt0rm]

The left had a devastating night. PvdA+GL+SP together now are smaller than the PvdA in 2012. Progressives and leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU hold well in the negotiations with CDA and VVD. One positive thing about the campaign is the fact that Rutte was clearly Pro-EU in the campaign and that he did not suddenly become eurosceptic before the election or tried to do a 'Cameron'

[SunSt0rm]

First and second party by municipality. Second party: VVD and CDA in civic belts in north, east and Green Heart. D66 in the Alkmaar-Nijmegen progressive belt. PVV in suburban, exurban and declining formerly industrial areas. CDA being 2nd in East Brabant shows how the PVV failed there. The PVV-grey west-east strip in the center of the country used to be deep PvdA red. The map of the second largest party is much more insightful than the VVD-blue map.

Note the lack of places where the PvdA are in 2nd place.

Eastern Brabant has always been CDA territory, its very rural. Check the map of 2010 and see it was CDA county then and not PVV. I am suprised by the strong performance of VVD in rural East Brabant and weak performance of CDA there.

[SunSt0rm]

The final turnout percentage is 80.8%, the highest since 1989.

People often vote for a woman for feminist reasons, but they usually picked the first woman on the list. She was often sure to be elected anyway, so a vote for the first woman on the list typically doesn't increase the number of women in parliament. For that reason, there was a campaign to vote for women who are placed just below an electable position on the list this time. If they are elected with preference votes this does alter the gender balance in parliament. This campaign seems to have had the effect that Isabelle Diks, #19 on the GL list, has been elected with preference votes... at the expense of another woman, Lisa Westerveld at #14. However, Westerveld herself can still reach the preference threshold too. On the PvdA list it appears that incumbent Development Aid Minister Lilianne Ploumen, #10, has been elected for similar reasons and personal popularity at the expense of the #9, William Moorlag.

Ploumen became popular 1 month ago for her anti-abortion effort against Trump, not really suprising she has been elected tbh

[SunSt0rm]

leftwingers should hope now that D66 & probably CU

is the CU a christian leftish party regarding social policy?

On environment and immigration they can be considered left. On Abortion, drugs and Euthanasia they are conservative. On the economy they are left to the CDA but right to the PvdA.

[SunSt0rm]

Swing map. Orange shows municipalities that have swung to the left, blue shows municipalities that have swung to the right. The collapse of the PvdA in the north seems to have benefited CDA and PVV.

In the west or Randstad, the PvdA swing to D66 and VVD lost much voters to D66 there as well. Outside, PvdA & VVD ==> CDA & PVV. There is a weird municipality in the south, Leudal, that did not swing to the right, but swung hard to D66. No idea why tbh