I had a thought earlier that maybe all that went on in the past 24 hours was a ploy by Prigozhin to increase his popularity in preparation for a run for President in 2024.
It would explain why he decided to stop his drive to Moscow, because the effort was an attempt to send a message to the public instead of making a real attempt at regime change. That he's the one trying to fight the incompetent corrupt military brass. That he's the one that can actually lead Russia to glory. That he's the one who'd actually fight the elites, etc.
And to be fair, now that as part of his deal the insurrection charges are being dropped, he can legally run for office.
[I don't think this is likely, but it would explain why Prigozhin seemingly gave up after making a seemingly weak deal. IMO what probably happened is that Evgeny got mad after the MoD announced regulations that were going to put PMCs under MoD control. ]
Interesting theory.
We shall see how it pans out, of course.