House Results without Gerrymandering (user search)
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  House Results without Gerrymandering (search mode)
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Author Topic: House Results without Gerrymandering  (Read 1648 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« on: November 28, 2022, 09:54:10 AM »
If we count WA as "gerrymandered", is this an acceptable replacement?
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=28203
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2022, 09:57:45 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 09:52:36 AM
Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

Removing Bend made the seat perhaps 2-3% more Republican I guess?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2022, 10:16:15 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 10:12:45 AM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on November 28, 2022, 09:57:45 AM
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 09:52:36 AM
Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

Removing Bend made the seat perhaps 2-3% more Republican I guess?

A fair oregon 2nd could be as swingy as trump+12
Ah.
How did the OR-02 that Ds drew vote?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2022, 10:20:25 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 10:16:34 AM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on November 28, 2022, 10:16:15 AM
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 10:12:45 AM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on November 28, 2022, 09:57:45 AM
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 09:52:36 AM
Oregon 2 is only so Republican because they removed Bend from it. Its a clear R pack

Removing Bend made the seat perhaps 2-3% more Republican I guess?

A fair oregon 2nd could be as swingy as trump+12
Ah.
How did the OR-02 that Ds drew vote?

Like Trump+35 iirc
Really??? Wow.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2022, 10:35:55 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 28, 2022, 10:22:30 AM

Mistyped, I meant to press a 2.
That sounds more realistic.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2022, 07:59:14 AM »
I would not assume Fung wins. It's probably reasonable to demand no town splits, and it is hard to draw a no town split map where Fung does well enough to get a genuine swing district.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2022, 02:31:12 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2022, 02:47:32 PM by Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 29, 2022, 12:57:47 PM
Quote from: NUPES Enjoyer on November 29, 2022, 05:08:11 AM
Quote from: Pres Mike on November 29, 2022, 12:41:17 AM
What does the state delegations map look like?



19D-26R-5T

I gave Dems one more district in Texas based on politicallefty's comments, and I assigned the two uncertain Dem seats to SC and NE rather than CO and VA for the sake of geographic diversity. Still, despite gaining 6 seats, Democrats actually fare much worse in terms of state delegations due to RI, NV and OR ending up tied.

Did you not read an explanation on Rhode Island? Try drawing a Providence based seat, the outer seat won't be much more R because it now has to take in high turnout Democratic coastal areas and it loses Cranston which is the area Fung improved the best .
It's possible to draw a district where Fung would be favored in 2022. But this isn't a non-partisan map, this is a Republican gerrymander.
EDIT: I checked OurCampaigns and R House candidates won here by about 5k votes in 2022 (so a margin of about 2.5%).
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