Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anybody have any last-minute predictions for WA SEN and OR GOV before polls close in 13 minutes?

WA-SEN is Murray+6, Oregon Gov is Kotek+5. Gonna predict that, anyway...let's see the results as they come in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is a D House and R Senate theoretically possible?

Yes, but it's becoming steadily more unlikely. Would probably require Rs to do well in AZ, GA, and NV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

who wins nevada? best guess?

I expect a CCM win around 1-2 points. Not sure about other people...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC news projects Grassley as winner in Iowa.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC also projects Maggie Hassan as winner in New Hampshire.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My "takeaways" (regardless of whether the house/senate go R or not):

1. gop primary voters suck

2. maybe don’t send a repugnant, historically unpopular incumbent president to swing states

3. what even is the point of predictions anymore

4. rick scott is probably enjoying this because he loves titanium tilt r elections, and i want him out of the senate now (can’t wait for my boi steve daines to take over at the nrsc)

5. now i actually know what democrats go through on election nights 😂

6. i just don’t want another georgia runoff to determine this thing

7. the curse on this senate map is now officially lifted, but that means it might be lifted on the class I map as well, just saying

8. mattrose94 (the atlas user) deserves more accolades than anyone else tonight — check out his parody posts about this election (he was spot on about nearly every bad take we made)

But either way, congrats on a historically impressive showing, guys. I’ll acknowledge having been more than a little smug about certain races (and very wrong about the overall environment we were in). I know a lot of vote is outstanding, but I don’t remember the last time I was this surprised by the outcome of an American election (not even 2016 comes close). You certainly made history tonight, and it’s way more impressive than 1998 or 2002 even if Republicans narrowly win the House and/or Senate. Feel free to bump and mock my posts now, I won’t delete them.

HOWEVER, I never denied that Nevada is a state that votes (roughly) in line with the national popular vote, so be fair...... (*shows himself the door*)

Is Miller leading in IA-AG? Because if he loses, you can still collect some accolades.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Adams County (home to Gettysburg National Park -- very powerful and moving place that I recommend to everybody) reporting >95%. 

Oz leads 63-35, Trump won here 66-32

Oz continues to fail to hit the targets he needed.
Someone should get him some crudite as a consolation prize.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can't even explain Elliott County voting to shoot down the anti-abortion amendment as just "ancestral Dems voting for party identity going back generations" lol. They didn't vote for a party or candidate, they genuinely and directly voted for socially liberal policy this time!

What a wacky county, I'll always love it!

There's a difference between the Evangelical Southern Baptist Deep South Right, and the Applachian Populist ex New Deal right.

Remember that unlike Alabama, Arkansas; Kentucky only shifted drastically Republican quite recently.


And yet you guys still have a Democratic governor.

I dunno if there's a hugely significant difference between these two areas when it comes to abortion policy, though...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC news projects Vance as winner in OH.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I guess Beto's political career is over. He lost two major statewide races and went no where in a presidential primary.

He could pull a John James and carpetbag to a fitting house district

This is probably the best hope for him in the long-run. That, or as state chair of the TX Dems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ohio Democrats will win FIVE House seats for the first time since 2010!

Also back then Ohio had 18 districts instead of 16

Big W for Buckeye state Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC news projects Shapiro as winner in PA-GOV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can't even explain Elliott County voting to shoot down the anti-abortion amendment as just "ancestral Dems voting for party identity going back generations" lol. They didn't vote for a party or candidate, they genuinely and directly voted for socially liberal policy this time!

What a wacky county, I'll always love it!

There's a difference between the Evangelical Southern Baptist Deep South Right, and the Applachian Populist ex New Deal right.

Remember that unlike Alabama, Arkansas; Kentucky only shifted drastically Republican quite recently.


And yet you guys still have a Democratic governor.

I dunno if there's a hugely significant difference between these two areas when it comes to abortion policy, though...

Yes there is.

Safe Legal, and Rare. Remember Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign ? Hint : He did very well in Appalachia.

Thing is, you had a lot more New Deal Dems back then. Now, issues like abortion have tended to be more salient than in the past in these areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC news projects Newsom as winner in CA-GOV and Padilla as winner in CA-SEN.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanford Bishop up 55-45 in GA-02 with 80% of the vote counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not saying it means anything but lol

Davis County Utah

Lee 53% McMullin 44% (71% in)

Was Trump +20 in 2020.

That's...not good for Lee. How is Utah County voting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC News projects Kemp winning in GA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So you’re telling me there’s a chance that the crazy lady from CO-03 is unseated tonight? Please don’t get my hopes up…

If she does, Colorado and Florida becoming mirror opposites would be complete.

They are already polar opposites in terms of elevation and weather.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So it's something like a 52-48 margin in VA-02.
Congrats to incoming Congresswoman Kiggans on a well-run campaign.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC News projects Hochul winner in NY-GOV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Watching the Newsmax livestream commentators have a meltdown is hilarious. Highly recommend!

Link plz

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Luzerne also very interesting .... Fetterman +12 right now with 55% in. Trump +15 county!

WHAT

It is what it is!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Moving along!

Mifflin County, PA now at >95%, named after Thomas Mifflin (the first governor of PA). 

Oz leads 73-24, Trump won here 77-21 in 2020

Going to be bold here and forecast Oz losing by 6%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Moving along!

Mifflin County, PA now at >95%, named after Thomas Mifflin (the first governor of PA). 

Oz leads 73-24, Trump won here 77-21 in 2020

Going to be bold here and forecast Oz losing by 6%.

At this point, I don't even think that's that bold. I'm completely stunned at what happened tonight.

Depends on how Dem the last 10-20% of ballots is. I agree it's not necessarily bold, but that margin would be a bit surprising still.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Watching the Newsmax livestream commentators have a meltdown is hilarious. Highly recommend!

Link plz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVLTvdtwgA8

Thanks man!