Early Voting thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)? 

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

i think it was overall votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1589033141712613376?s=20&t=qcQ-vS8Qy5...

Young Kim's homophobia has provoked God! There is no other explanation!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864

That's what the doctor ordered.

IIrc, do Ds lead by 5,000 until now, and that's increased to 13,000 just because of this drop? Because, wow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864
That's what the doctor ordered.

IIrc, do Ds lead by 5,000 until now, and that's increased to 13,000 just because of this drop? Because, wow.

Worth noting this drop alone puts the Clark firewall at around 37k. I was expecting 37k final before Tuesday but we got there in one day. I'm assuming no or slow mail Sunday. If Monday is good...that could be mid 40s, and that's with mail on election day plus the few days after

Looks like the laws that NV Ds passed re: voting have done their job in boosting turnout. Now we shall see which party benefits...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Don't disagree with much here. Pretty much the only certain thing we have right now is that this race is close, and polling strongly suggests the winner will prevail by a margin of less than two points. Reasonable people can disagree on who is likelier to win between the two.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ralston agrees with me - very narrow CCM win. This was what I was predicting for months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So far, at this very moment, what can we take away from the EV right now? Good? Bad? Ugly ?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia: Very good for Dems
Florida: Horrific for Dems
Everywhere else: Mixed, or I'm not sure

NV is a 4/10 for Dems, GA is 6/10, FL is a 1/10. Black turnout wasn't robust in GA.

I don't think any other states are worth looking at. There's an equal and opposite reaction phenomenon in EV. People who vote early are mostly partisans who were going to vote anyway, so every Dem vote early is one less Dem vote on e-day. That was the case in 2020.

Black turnout seems fine in GA? Given that it appears that a surprising amount of Dems are waiting till Election Day, 29% of the vote share seems pretty good. Basically in the middle of the 2020 (27.7%) and 2021 (30.9%) which had higher early voting.

There does seem to be a decline in the relative amount of Ds early voting.
It's also good for Ds that it's in the middle of 2020 and 2021 here...both were D wins.
I feel pretty good about GA at this point.