Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30834

Give these people a medal or something. Incredible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/

"Russian victory in Chasiv Yar would jeopardize ‘last stronghold’ of Donetsk region, Ukrainians say"

It is interesting how this conflict has attributes of wars in Europe before WWI where key fortresses play very critical roles

Funnily enough you could argue that the wars between Russia and the Sublime Porte over Crimea also saw fortresses be critical.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems Russia can also play this "seisure of assets" game

Russia should only escalate, if it does, with care.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dropping the whole tweet threads on us eh Storr? Lol

It's all a-okay by me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer.  

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer. 

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits. 

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible. 

There's certainly a lot to think about.
Ukraine will find it hard doing everything it could potentially do anyhow. They're handcuffed by the current status quo, in things like manpower mobilization especially. They need to look after both short-term responding to Russian actions and necessary long-term planning. Quite an unenviable job.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

If I had to guess tanks may end up having drone operators at some point.

The Russians have already implemented that idea.  They have also altered their, previously damaged, T72 tanks to sustain numerous drone hits, as well as a certain amount of artillery shells.  These tanks are referred to as 'Turtle Tanks'.    They have also increased the tank's resistance to mines, and some have mine rollers.  There are many other alterations that are being made to other tanks that weren't necessary for the T72.  Tanks with better turret swivel speed and fire reliability than the T72 were provided metal sheets that would not block or impede the gunner from firing.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXoT454uVoU

The 'Turtle Tanks' are the reason Ukraine, over the past month, has run out of drones and artillery shells on the Avdiivka front, as opposed to other areas of the Eastern Front where Ukrainian defenses have held.  It's clearly a game changer. 

So designated drone operators are a thing in the Russian military now? That's something we ought to look at here. That might be a good idea depending on how important drones are in the future. Tanks will still be important, but the way they're used could definitely change significantly.
I had to do research on how tanks operated and all that (military fiction writer) and seeing what this war unleashes in terms of military organization is quite interesting...

Not just drone operators.  That's just 5% of it.  Ukraine needs to make all the changes that I talked about.  They need to revamp all the tanks and vehicles that are incoming from NATO. You can put drone operators in every tank and vehicle, but it's not going to make a difference when 'Turtle Tanks' have repeatedly shown that they can resist numerous drones, mines, and artillery hits. 

We've received an unprecedented amount of war coverage from independent sources working on both sides of the conflict.  The footage is incredible. 

There's certainly a lot to think about.
Ukraine will find it hard doing everything it could potentially do anyhow. They're handcuffed by the current status quo, in things like manpower mobilization especially. They need to look after both short-term responding to Russian actions and necessary long-term planning. Quite an unenviable job.

Well Yeah.  The reality is that nothing Ukraine can be done to significantly alter their current situation. Even if they found enough men, they don't have time to train them, and Russia continues to train more troops with experienced veterans, as well as improve their weaponry.  There weaponry and tactics are improving.  They managed to convert their crappiest tank into the best one on the ground.  The Russians have found a way to successfully occupy areas without losing an appreciable number of men.  I'm becoming increasingly more pessimistic as it relates to the impact Western Aid will have on the situation.  You'd think the Russians would launch their major offensive before it arrives, but apparently it makes way more sense for them to wait for the 'Turtle Tank' upgrades.  If drones, mines, and artillery can't stop them, then there won't be enough advance weapons to help Ukraine stop the offensive.

I'm not being hyperbolic when I say Ukraine is completely and truly F###ed.  The situation is almost hopeless on the Donetsk direction, and nothing can be done to stabilize it if Russia takes Krasnohorivka.  It will help Russia flank everything south of Ocheretyne, and cut-off Ukrainian troops from supporting each other between Umanske, Netaloive and Vuhledar. 

A lot depends on how efficient Ukraine is able to operate and how much they will be able to boost their own capabilities. Russia tends to improve its military capabilities as a war goes on, so if Ukraine can't keep up it's going to be in a really tough spot.
Boatloads of US aid couldn't save South Vietnam...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russian sources say that facing encirclement, it seems Ukraine's forces pulled out of Novokalinovo.  They also indicate that some Ukrainians surrendered in the Berdichy pocket.

Waaaah waaaah no, it doesn't matter that we failed to take Kiev in the most embarrassingly aborted military operation in modern history, instead we captured the border town of Blizhniyhekov (population 49) and its crucial cement factory! This is the turning point in the war!

Reality check: Every single Russian soldier on Ukrainian land will die, and will deserve it.

What reality do you live in if you think every single Russian soldier on the soil in Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts will die?
War rarely works like that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.midilibre.fr/2024/04/26/guerre-en-ukraine-matelas-gonflables-passeurs-des-milliers-de-citoyens-tentent-de-fuir-le-pays-pour-eviter-la-mobilisation-11916003.php

"War in Ukraine: inflatable mattresses, smugglers… thousands of citizens try to flee the country to avoid mobilization"

Mobilization on the Israeli model can be very taxing. If you draft the people who keep your economy going...you better hope you succeed, because if not...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/key-insurer-says-russia-oil-price-cap-increasingly-unenforceable

"Key Insurer Says Russia Oil Price Cap Increasingly Unenforceable"

The entire Russian oil cap regime is based using shipping insurance.  At this stage the Russians has built an alternative shipping and shipping insurance ecosystem to make this entire cap system break down, not that it really worked that well in the first place.

This was likely priced in in the plans of US and allies. How much money did it cost Russia? Time will tell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sounds like Afghanistan II

It does. For Russia.

Too early to tell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Too early to tell.

Is it though? Even in the incredibly unlikely event (despite recent hype that they are "on the verge of victory") that they conquered every inch of Ukraine, Russia would surely face massive resistance.

Well, what does an "Afghanistan" mean precisely? Jaichind perhaps imagines a South Vietnam type situation (build up proxy ally fails badly). There's still room for either side to suffer huge embarrassment of that kind however unlikely it looks, I wouldn't predict it for either side in this proxy conflict just yet, I doubt the story would be conclusively resolved then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Apparently a New York is under threat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York,_Ukraine
Today I learned...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anti-Putin Russian media Mediazona estimate by month of Russia KIA mostly by scrapping obituaries.   This effort seems to have BBC funding.   The KIA rate has clearly been going down these last few months and the breakdown of the type of KIA gives good trends on the makeup of the Russian military at the front.

What observations do you think there are to glean from this data specifically?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What observations do you think there are to glean from this data specifically?

The battle of Bakhmut was very costly for the Russians where convicts and the Wagner Group made up of a good part of the attacking force and losses.  Since that battle it seems volunteers made up a larger part of the Russian force at the front and the losses as well

Ok from what I know I guess I agree with that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Who could have seen this coming? A Russian prisoner-recruit kills six fellow soldiers and flees after the Russian military bombed his mother in Kharkiv. The 57-year-old is still at large and armed with a silenced AK-12."

"Why he was sent to the [prison] colony is not specified. 161.ru claims that [Yuri] Galushko is a native of the Kharkov region, but “lived and served” in Russia for a long time, he has Russian citizenship."

"The channel, citing the words of his ex-wife, claims that the military man “became embittered” after his mother, living in Kharkov, came under Russian shelling and was injured and suffered a stroke.

Galushko is suspected of shooting six servicemen of a howitzer artillery battalion [belonging to the 10th    Tank Regiment] on May 4 and fleeing the crime scene,"

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1787574415682576399

Something is always a risk when recruiting from potentially hostile demographics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

“Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense?”

BRUSSELS — The EU's emergency bailout fund — created at the peak of the debt crisis — could be the answer to governments' prayers: a ready-made money pot it could invest in defense.
Powerful figures in the bloc are pushing for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), worth €422 billion, to move beyond its original role rescuing drowning economies, according to five people with knowledge of the discussions.
It could instead take on the task of distributing cheap loans to buy weapons, one of them said.

Wow this could be a major shot in the arm for Europe’s ability to increase aid to Ukraine and their own defensive production
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-emergency-bailout-fund-defense-spending-investment-european-stability-mechanism/

Perhaps this was the secret trap card Ukraine needed all along!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Commander-in-chief of AFU Oleksandr Syrskyi: Northern Kharkiv front "significantly worsened"

The Ukrainian army’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that the situation in the country’s eastern Kharkiv region had “significantly worsened” for Ukrainian forces on Sunday as Russia claimed it had captured four new villages in its continued offensive on the area.

Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces were engaged in “fierce defensive battles” in the Kharkiv region and that while conditions had “significantly worsened” in recent days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had managed to hold their defensive line and prevent Russian troops from advancing further into the region.

On Saturday, Russia said it had captured the villages of Borisivka, Ogirtseve, Pletenivka, Pylna and Strilecha, also along the border in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian war monitoring project DeepState confirmed the Russian claim on Sunday.

Source: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/05/12/ukrainian-military-chief-describes-worsened-situation-in-kharkiv-region-amid-russian-advances-en-news

Russia is pretty likely to gain long-term, the question is how much and will their material losses be enough to make it worth it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Patrushev losing Putin's favor feels like it came out of nowhere.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukrainian General Staff on Vovchansk: "In order to save the lives of our servicemen and avoid losses, the units carried out a maneuver and moved to more advantageous positions" - In essence we're retreating from parts of the town

In separate areas, in the Lukyantsi and Vovchansk districts, due to the impact of fire and assault actions of the enemy, in order to save the lives of our servicemen and avoid losses, the units carried out a maneuver and moved to more advantageous positions. The fighting continues.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/

There's nothing tactically bad about this. Ukraine needs to preserve its manpower.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's incredible to some extent how we have a war in which a social media platform would be an important source of primary information.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems some have lost Putin's favor.