US House Redistricting: Idaho

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My preferred map on 2010 figures is Boundary, Bonner, Kootenai, Shoshone, Benawah, Latah, Clearwater, Nez Perce, Lewis, Idaho,  Valley, Adams, Washington, Payette, Gem, Boise, and Ada counties, and the rest of the state in the other CD.
I'm not sure what things would be like under 2018 figures, or the eventual 2020 census results.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update: the above CD would be overpopulated by 11k under 2018 figures, a sharp contrast to being 3k below quota under 2010 figures. Definitely would not work as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Idaho redistricting is really boring right now but will get much more exciting when the state gets a 3rd CD.  Expect a big fight between the parties over whether the commission has to draw a compact Boise CD.  

It might not be a massive fight in practice - any compact Boise CD is still at least R+7 (after having toyed with things in DRA). That being said, Rs would definitely prefer a CD that is all of Canyon and some of Ada as opposed to all of Ada and some of Canyon.



whipped up a quick and easy 3 CD map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6783f745-d1cb-4640-adc5-9b4241f4a1bc

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

R+7 would be competitive by 2030 though, no?

It could possibly be. Bear in mind that Idaho's population growth has been fed in large part by influxes that are in fact more right-leaning than Idaho is overall.
Even leaving that aside, by 2030, I'd still rather be Rs than Ds here. Rs don't actually have too much to fear from a compact Boise district. Ada still would be only three-fourths of the seat at most (and Ada isn't exactly firm Dem territory), while rapidly growing burbs in neighboring Canyon, that is basically titanium R territory, would be needed to reach quota. And that is a major, major hurdle to any Dem trying to win a compact Boise CD.
Also, the Boise CD on my map isn't R+7, it's R+9.73 - markedly safer overall. R+7 was thrown about as a guesstimate as to what the PVI of a Boise CD created in 2030 might be, given it'd likely take less of Canyon County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(came here from the "biggest reapportionment surprise" thread, in which the possibility of 3-district Idaho was discussed)

It might not be a massive fight in practice - any compact Boise CD is still at least R+7 (after having toyed with things in DRA).

It should be noted that that map was drawn with 2016 results, in which third-party candidates got 13.4% of the vote in Ada. That county went from Trump +9.2 in 2016 to Trump +4 in 2020.

Yes, that is fair, but the Canyon County part of any compact Boise district would be a major, major roadblock to Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.0
We already have a thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=416549.0
We already have a thread.

If mods could merge this thread into the existing one, that would be great.

Agreed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why can't Ada be put whole in the 1st district? Splitting Metro Boise in 2 seats but unifying Ada?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'd rather put Boise in with the Panhandle to create a more competitive district, but whatever, I can understand why they didn't this.
Not a bad map, not a good map either. Meh.