AL-FM3 Research (Jones Internal): Jones +1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

Have to disagree..

Jones hasn't even tried to carve himself out a image of bipartisanship, his voting record has been extremely liberal for the state's partisan lean..

Voted against Kavanaugh, voted to convict on both counts, and looks likely to vote against Barrett's nomination..

Red state voters don’t care as much about a Senator's voting record as people here think. Jones' strength isn’t that he’s a conservadem, it’s that he’s perceived as genuine and relatable — the kind of decent guy who fights for you even if you disagree with him on some issues (well, that, and Tuberville's own weaknesses as a candidate and the massive Democratic wave). I’m not saying he’ll win reelection, but don’t be surprised if the margin is a lot closer to McCaskill's margin of defeat than what you’re predicting. There are also quite a few favorable trends for Democrats in this state, and Democratic enthusiasm/black turnout will be off the charts (I’m expecting Biden to crack 40%).

Taking this race for granted would be absolutely foolish. Jones' campaign is definitely playing to win.

Obama didn't even crack 40% in 2008.. a huge stretch to say Biden will.

tbf, the state's fundamentals are better for Ds than in 2008.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

This. Jones will likely lose but Tuberville actually seems like a pretty crappy candidate.

Imagine if Doug Jones scrapes home again. Will Rs be going, "should we have picked Sessions instead?".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, but Republicans definitely can’t take this for granted and both parties' internals have been showing the race much closer than public polling. It’s a single-digit race.

This. Jones will likely lose but Tuberville actually seems like a pretty crappy candidate.

He doesn't seem to offer very much besides "hey, remember when I coached at Auburn?".  (Feel free to yell at me, my Alabama Republican peeps).  

And he wasn’t even that great a coach. And Auburn is nowhere near as popular as Alabama (Crimson Tide) in the state.

Oh you don't need to tell me hehe, I went to Alabama for a year during my undergrad.

Imagine if Tommy loses because of Auburn fans hate how he did badly as coach and Alabama fans hate the fact he coached Auburn.
A man can dream, can't he?