Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cooked up what I think is a decent CO map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f71e059f-65da-4c98-bad9-274d526e5ae4

Kept Denver besides a small part in the SW whole.
Aurora is also whole

4 Safe D with yellow being the closest of them and then 1 tossup which is red at Trump +3/Polis +1 so I assume Biden won it by a decent margin.
Also the city of Aurora is whole.
All outstate districts should be safe for the GOP. I can't see anyway to realistically get a swing outstate district besides putting Larimer with outstate and dumping Weld with Boulder which I really don't like.Boulder + Larimer are a pretty decent COI.

Outstate really can only be one CO springs district which will not be touched in any circumstance whatsoever and then the Eastern district has to expand to Take Pueblo either due to the loss of Douglass or Weld which removes any chance for a swing Boebert district.

This map is a bona fide fair map. I also like the compact shapes and the overall end result. Only real quibble for me is the shape of the El Paso County CD. The county is just right in size that it can be a CD to itself. If you want smaller deviation, then it's better taking a precinct with a less jagged shape.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I mananged to create 6 Polis districts by cracking Grand Junction. Overall, this is obviously a very pro dem map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f52747e1-fda6-467f-bb16-814d6d7defc1

I raise you one better:

7 Polis districts, all of which also went to Hillary Clinton.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/27998970-024a-4d7d-9bbb-1ec4e93f78e8

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GOPmander to see how geographically feasible it was to make a map where Dems are winning less than half of the seats.
It is still quite possible.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/8a07deda-1e7f-4e56-a9c7-070aa9213a39

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a combination least-change and proportional map, if DRA is anything to go by.
The new 8th is lean GOP, Trump '16+5, but clearly winnable for Dems in the right circumstances; it might even have voted for Biden.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/17d5c35b-4641-466d-b80d-10fec89b0395

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone think Denver will get a VRA majority minority district? I think it'll need to.

I made a map including such a VRA district, which seems to be 2D-1R-5 swing at first but is probably 7D-1R given the swing of Colorado lately... I can't post it here yet as I don't have enough messages for image posting, but will do later.

A Denver VRA district is something like 43% Hispanic, 38% white, 12% black.

Welcome to the forum!
I don't think it's a given Denver gets a majority non-white district, but it's certainly likelier than not.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://coloradosun.com/2021/05/12/jason-crow-moves-centennial-congressional-redistricting/

Fairly minor news although any district with Aurora will be Safe D but Centennial on the other hand could be placed with Douglas in a swing district.

A district running from Douglas to areas directing bordering Denver is likely to be a fair-fight district. Every congressional map this century in CO has had one of those.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's my attempt at maximizing competitive districts.
3 safe D, 1 safe R, and 4 swing that could really go either way depending on the year.

I made the new 8th district in the northern Fort Collins/Greeley area; expanded the 4th into Centennial; transferred eastern Colorado to the 6th; and northwestern Colorado to the 2nd.

This is 5R-3D by 2012-18 average (which is what's pictured in the map), but it's 6D-2R by 2018 gubernatorial (and the 4th district was just three points off flipping in the 2018 gubernatorial). Incumbents who've changed districts: Boebert is now in the 2nd, Buck is now in the 8th, Crow is now in the 4th, and I believe everyone else stays in the same place.

You did a very good job maximizing competitive districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is an interesting map. I'm not sure why they gave part of El Paso County to Buck's district, rather than keeping the whole county intact as its own congressional district. But otherwise, the map makes sense, and pretty closely correlates with what I expected. This would be a 5 D-3 R map in most years, assuming that Republicans don't reverse the Democratic rise in Douglas County.

The El Paso cut is only done for Pop reasons, CD5 remains nested in the county. DRA's 2019 estimates have the county just on the edge of 1 cd, but given growth it likely surpassed its allotment in their internal data. It and the rest of the front range is also likely to benefit from the final census numbers, at the expense of the south of the state and Pueblo region, given the expectation of a rural Hispanic undercount.

I would like an all-El Paso CD, but seems the county grew too much for that to be possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1407828715690770440
WTF?

tweet and pdf were deleted?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1407828715690770440
WTF?

tweet and pdf were deleted?

Interesting that the average of the two median districts are considerably more Rep than the state overall. D+2 in margin vs D+6 in the state overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

El Paso County appears to be 10Kish over the 8 CD threshold in the new numbers, so goodbye any hope of a neat whole-county district.

Looks like the El Paso CD is going to shrink even more, through shedding its easternmost portions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

El Paso County appears to be 10Kish over the 8 CD threshold in the new numbers, so goodbye any hope of a neat whole-county district.

Looks like the El Paso CD is going to shrink even more, through shedding its easternmost portions.

They can draw the El Paso CD with zero population deviation and no split precincts -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9b00209f-fb73-42f4-ac65-d7c919fa7407

Splendid.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That 3rd still leans GOP - right?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why in the world would they put Fort Collins in the eastern district?

The 8th dislocates the 4th and the 4th is compensated with part of the 2nd, with the 2nd eating into the 3rd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like 3 Safe D districts, 1 likely D district, 2 safe R districts, 1 likely R district, and 1 tossup (maybe tilt D).

The 8th (western Adams/Weld) and third (South) both kinda look like tossups.   I guess 8th could be called tilt D and 3rd tilt R.

4-2-2 map IMO.

Third consecutive time a new CD winnable for both parties is drawn, bordering Denver. It happened in 2002 and in 2012 as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New Preliminary maps have been dropped.

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/staff-congressional-1

Bad news for Lauren Boebert as she has been drawn into a very heavily Democratic district. She will need to pack up the moving van if she wants to remain in Congress.

Wow, that's a total departure from what they had previously, aside from El Paso and Denver.

Boebert can still win in that southern district though.  Isn't she from Mesa County?

Garfield, though maybe she could carpetbag? Though apparently even CO-03 only voted for Trump by less than 5.

Boebert having to move will be the least of her problems - the bulk of her constituency remains in the same district. She could move with little consequence. The big problem for her is that if CO-03 is like this she could go down in defeat even in a good year for Reps.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The end result of the map (besides the Hispanic stuff) is to spread out the Republican vote more than the previous map.   They basically have no real vote sinks left anywhere. 

I'd think the COGOP would prefer this to the other one, other than Boebert.

This is the gist of it in regards to the differences between the two maps, imo.
Worth noting that probably only 1/5 of this CO-04, at most, lives outside Douglas, Weld, and Larimer...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Neguse is already fundraising off of it:

https://twitter.com/joeneguse/status/1433941758170128385?s=21

Very cheeky indeed.
Can't hurt to raise money early though...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Neguse is already fundraising off of it:

https://twitter.com/joeneguse/status/1433941758170128385?s=21

Boebert lost Garfield County to Diane Mitsch-Bush last year, if I'm not mistaken.

yep, she did

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm reading this is actually a staff map that was presented to the commission, not a commission drawn map.

Yeah that's what happened last time. Still interesting to note in how it was heavily influenced by an obvious Democratic gerrymander proposal yet somehow managed to be not a major Democratic gerrymander. Its quite weird what the staff is doing.

This map is probably better for Republicans in the short run though, the median seat is now Biden+5 rather than Biden+9, there is potential long term benefit from the Democrats, but other than the Col. Springs seat, idk if any of the other GOP seats (i.e. the two slope ones) will trend D long term in a significant way.

CO03 was Romney +4 and Trump +4.4 . CO04 on the other hand is zooming left pretty hard thanks to Fort Collins being back in and keeping Douglas County also being half the district. CO08 trended left in 2020 but had overall a moderate R trend from 2012  to 2020.

*Trump 4.4 in 2020 after being Trump +10.2 in '16.

Who knows what happens there long term but given Colorado's overall swing plus Boebert...well, being Boebert, there could be some possibilities medium-term here. Buck seat is an obvious longterm play and overall this map seems like they're trying to squeeze longterm potential out of the map if they continue making gains across the state.

Agree if  2016>2020 trends continue its def going 8-0 by 2028 or something.  I just felt it was important to point out the 2012>2020 trend in this case.

Not even as far as 2028.

This is what happens if we extrapolate 2016-20 trends to 2020-24:

1: D +59.0 in 2016;  D +61.3 in 2020;  D +63.6 in 2024
2: D +20.7 in 2016;  D +27.6 in 2020;  D +34.5 in 2024
3: R +11.3 in 2016;  R +4.4 in 2020;   D +2.5 in 2024
4: R +18.3 in 2016;  R +8.3 in 2020;   D +1.7 in 2024
5: R +24.3 in 2016;  R +10.2 in 2020;  D +3.9 in 2024
6: D +14.9 in 2016;  D +24.4 in 2020;  D +33.9 in 2024
7: D +1.4 in 2016;   D +12.1 in 2020;   D +22.8 in 2024
8: R +1.4 in 2016;   D + 4.8 in 2020;   D +11.0 in 2024

Obviously expecting trends like that to repeat is ambitious, but it’s still at least conceivable that it could go for 8 Dems as soon as 2024.

What do gubernatorial numbers look like for these districts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Neguse is already fundraising off of it:

https://twitter.com/joeneguse/status/1433941758170128385?s=21

Boebert lost Garfield County to Diane Mitsch-Bush last year, if I'm not mistaken.

yep, she did

And not only did Mitsch-Bush win it, but she got a majority there. Certainly a humiliating result for Boebert to lose her home county, although she obviously carried her hometown of Rifle (Mitsch-Bush won thanks to a strong performance in Glenwood Springs). Mitsch-Bush did the best of the three major Democratic candidates in Garfield County, as Biden won it with a plurality and Hickenlooper lost it to Cory Gardner.

Interesting.
Two things as an aside.
I don't think someone losing their home county necessarily means too much, especially in this era of polarization up and increasingly farther down the ballot.
The other is, it's ironic that the gun rights activist who rises to the fore due to something related to Beto O'Rouke lives in a place called...Rifle. Lol.
I wonder how that place got its name.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would a hardcore 5R-3D under 2020 figures look like?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would a hardcore 5R-3D under 2020 figures look like?

Best you can do is a dummymander. Each red district is at least Trump +5:



(you could get it up to Trump +6 by carving into El Paso County, but not beyond)

Lol, at least this map would hold up better than the map GA Dems passed in 1992.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1435033207628521476?s=20

Munching on popcorn.

Best reality show ever from the Rockies. Change my mind.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow, Senate Districts 3 and 8 together have a majority of the state's land area.