Statewide bellwethers?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

so not being a bellwether is not nearly enough evidence for it not being a bellwether? how about every statewide race since 2013?

In the 2017 gubernatorial election it was less than a point off from the statewide result. In every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's tracked close to the overall statewide result. Need I any more evidence?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlantic County is an NJ bellwether.

not anymore. see: bob menendez

that's not nearly enough evidence to pass for a refutation.

so not being a bellwether is not nearly enough evidence for it not being a bellwether? how about every statewide race since 2013?

In the 2017 gubernatorial election it was less than a point off from the statewide result. In every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's tracked close to the overall statewide result. Need I any more evidence?

no it wasn't. you're thinking of burlington. and how can you exclude the 2016 presidential when we're talking about *current* bellwethers lol. it used to be a bellwether i agree but in many senses even 2008 was an eternity ago.

fort bend county is a republican county. in every single presidential election in recent memory (with the sole exception of 2016) it's voted republican. need i any more evidence it leans republican?.

No, i'm not thinking about Burlington (which is more D than the state as a whole).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

one decade ago it was close to the statewide margin

NJ 2017 (statewide): 56.0%-41.9% Murphy
Atlantic County: 55.1%-42.5% Murphy
still close

fact is, you can't discount its bellwether status just because of how it voted in 2016 presidential and NJ-SEN 2018. Sorry.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

.6%+.9% > 1% bud, you just proved yourself wrong. now burlington: 56.4%-41.8% murphy, that's less than a point off

slight correction: I meant to imply that it was within a point of the statewide Murphy %, not the margin itself, which is related obviously but not the same thing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also in 2009 Christie's vote share in the county was very, very close to his statewide %.

one decade ago it was close to the statewide margin

NJ 2017 (statewide): 56.0%-41.9% Murphy
Atlantic County: 55.1%-42.5% Murphy
still close

fact is, you can't discount its bellwether status just because of how it voted in 2016 presidential and NJ-SEN 2018. Sorry.

thank you for proving me wrong. atlantic is a bellwether county because it voted close to the statewide margin in one recent low-turnout race. and also 7 years ago and 11 years ago (and beyond) because those races from a decade+ ago are so relevant. AND we don't count the two most recent high-profile, high-turnout statewide races that occurred in which atlantic voted significantly to the right of the state./quote]

I consider the 2016 presidential election results and the 2018 senate results as an element that ought to be considered, but far from the only element to be in the mix.