Sure, but even with the Covid bump fading, that is just a lot of ground to make up in one election. I could see it happening but I am skeptical that National can pull it off.
Basically. Luxon also comes across as a bit of an idiot, though maybe not in a politically harmful way. It is still early in his leadership and people are focused on many other things instead of learning more about him, so Labour can always hope he underperforms in a campaign if it is not already decided either way.
I get the sense a lot would have to wrong for National for them to get a sub-35 seat count two elections in a row. The real question, generally speaking, is how much they rebound. Of course, 2023 is still more than a year away.
