🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How precisely does the Berlin electoral system operate? How do wards work within that structure?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's check in on the polling for the Thuringia election that's been delayed more times than Half-Life 3 at this point (changes from last election):

AfD 24 (+1)
SPD 21 (+13)
Linke 20 (-11)
CDU 15 (-7)
FDP 8 (+3)
Green 7 (+2)

Thuringia SPD must really be furious they couldn't have it on the same day as the federal elections.

What sort of government would an election result like that produce in Thuringia? Red-Red-Green with the SPD leader becoming premier? Or could you get a four party coalition of SPD-CDU-FDP and Greens? (is there any national flag that includes red, black, yellow and green??)?

Guinea-Bissau coalition?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

It's pretty important, both for the prestige and the executive powers it entails ("Richtlinienkompetenz"). But there's also unwritten rules that will probably never be broken, like the largest party in a governing coalition will always get the position of head of government.

Why does the SPD then foreit the mayorship anyway despite the fact that it had the theoretical option of continuing with Red-Green-Red? The realities of political sustainibility or rather the lack of it. Look at the post-election polls what Berliners say which coalition they'd prefer and where Red-Green-Red stood there after the election. Look at the inernal discord among the Berlin SPD's rank and file regarding the continuation of Red-Green-Red.

Ah.
Thanks for the very thorough reply.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Right on schedule, the negotiations were finished today and will be presented tomorrow at 11.00 in the morning.

As written earlier, the SPD has succeeded in pushing through the vast majority of its demands, even points that were considered unlikely, such as the minimum wage being automatically adjusted for inflation going forward, buying out GASAG's operations in energy supply, a housing strategy that includes both new construction as well as a fund of 4 billion EUR for buying out existing buildings, and (most controversially for the CDU), the implementation of a state penalty tax if companies do not create enough apprenticeship positions.

Over the weekend, the two parties also finalized a 10 billion EUR climate fund, to be spent in three areas: in the areas of transport, renovation and energy. If implemented, this fund would be the largest fund among the German states on a per capita basis. In transport, the money is to be spent on electrification of the BVG's fleet. In energy, money is to be spent on solar panels and geothermal energy. In renovation, there is an accelerated program for existing properties.

However, the allocation of departments between the SPD and CDU will only be published if the membership vote of the SPD is successful.


Some more details about the negotiations directly from the negotiators in the SPD and CDU themselves showed that they managed to work together really well; even the left-wing negotiators in the SPD said it went well:

"The mood was initially bad, but that quickly thawed out," says a leading CDU negotiator. According to the CDU, the Greens negotiators could not promise until the end that they would be able to implement what was discussed in the talks. The CDU swung in the direction of the SPD.

Even the negotiators from the CDU-critical left wing of the party report something similar: Many debates with the Left and the Greens were deadlocked, it was often no longer about solutions, but about being right. "Honestly, also with us," says a Social Democrat. Now it's more about arguments. "I find it almost terrible myself, but it went really well," said a negotiator from the left wing of the party.

It is really telling that both the CDU and the SPD's left-wing felt the same way about Linke and the Greens, and that the BVG apparently seems to have a really bad relationship with the Greens in particular, which even to me is quite shocking. The CDU-SPD agreed on other topics that you would think originated out of Red-Red-Green, such as street tree planting programs for streets and the city center, as well as recreational spots like concrete steps leading down to the Spree River, more safe cycle paths, more "park and ride" lots by S-Bahn stations, more frequent public transit services in the periphery, intelligent traffic light systems, and continuing the subsidized public transit tickets introduced last October.


So far, I have yet to find much discussion of areas where the CDU outmanoeuvred the SPD, either in the press or from political opponents of Black-Red (the Left and Greens have entirely focused on repeating the mantra that it is a "regressive coalition", while the Jusos just keep calling Wegner a Nazi, etc.), but there was really only one specific area that the CDU managed to force through over the SPD's objections: that classes on religions will become mandatory from Year 7 in schools. Both parties agreed, however, that there should be fewer exams in schools.

I'll have to look through the entire contract once it's released, but so far I am leaning strongly towards voting "yes" once the SPD member ballots are sent out. This is basically an SPD government program, but under a CDU mayor.

Some unhappy CDU member somewhere: "This is the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals!"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some unhappy CDU member somewhere: "This is the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals!"

And it gets even better: despite the CDU winning 28.2% of the vote and 52 seats vs. the SPD's 18.4% of the vote and 34 seats, the Senate of Berlin (i.e. the governing administration) will be split equally between the two parties, and both parties will receive 5 Senators each (not including the Mayor, who will be Kai Wegner in such a constellation).

This is how badly the CDU wants to govern: they are willing to do 95% of what the SPD wants, so long as they get the Mayor's office and control over some departments. Much like Angela Merkel's last 8 years as Kanzlerin.

Well, they might be lucky to get such a result again.
So I guess it makes sense for them to take what they can get.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did the Bremen AfD get suspended?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did the Bremen AfD get suspended?

Irregularities in the nomination process.

Apparently, the AfD state chapter in Bremen is essentially split into two different factions with two competing  executive committees and consequently two lists of candidates.

Instead of picking one of the two lists as legitimate the election authority in Bremen simply told the AfD to go f**k themselves, ruling the AfD's bid invalid altogether based on the argument that it constitutes a violation of election law to hand in two competing lists for the same party.

AfD: phew I'm not banned for extremism
*hands in two lists of candidates*
AfD: this isn't how I expected to get banned
Court: you got banned for extreme interpretations of the electoral law!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

Yes. But it still seems crazy they would give AfD a few districts in Hamburg for example.

I am not familiar with previous results in Hamburg, but the AfD gets no more than 5-10 percent there, so how can they be ahead in some?

If I had to guess
1) AfD structurally just does better in EU elections
2) the non AfD vote is heavily split
3) some Kreis being better demographic fits for AfD and thus giving them more votes %-wise
which feeds into
4) AfD likely finishing first with high teens to low 20s in select areas at least, enough to give them pluralities in some districts