Redistricting victims next cycle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

4 bases in Alabama have to have their own districts:

• African-American (7)
• Mobile (1)
• Huntsville/northern tier (5)
• Birmingham suburbs (6)

This all points to the 3rd district being dismembered or moving so far north it's effectively a different district.

But the 3rd is on the eastern boarder.   It makes more sense to just expand it into AL-6 and move it north so AL-7 can get more AA voters.   Then cut off that northern part of AL-6 and give it to the two northern district.   

Removing AL-3 altogether would require basically an entirely new map.

Why not eliminate AL-4?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

Not to mention that Lane County is going to be a larger % of a seat's population if there is 6 instead of 5. It's likely OR-04 gets more Democratic, not less.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

DeFazio lives in Springfield.

Here is the deal:
Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, and 100,000 more people (probably from northern and eastern Marion county, rather than a Weird Hood River/Wasco protrusion) make exactly three safe blue congressional districts.


Benton, Lincoln, Linn, Polk, the rest of Marion County, and about 100,000 people from Lane County (probably Eugene west of the 5, northeast of the Willamette, but Springfield or the Santa Clara area could work too) makes another congressional district, which Hillary Clinton won by a few percentage points. This additionally forces DeFazio south.

DeFazio's new district would have to take in all of Josephine, and about half (Western Medford, Jacksonville, Ashland) of Jackson county. This would maintain an even PVI, which DeFazio would have a very good shot in.

Walden would keep East Medford, Central Point, and White City, along with all of Oregon east of the cascades. This would be a safe R seat.

All in all, it would look something like this:

great map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kentucky's State Constitution bans splintering up KY-03. Yarmuth is complete safe unless somehow the GOP gets another Anne Northup.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kentucky's State Constitution bans splintering up KY-03. Yarmuth is complete safe unless somehow the GOP gets another Anne Northup.

Anne Northup would not win KY-03 today.

what I meant was, a GOPer capable of winning KY-03. Anne Northup was the last Republican to fit in this category.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

That is not possible.

why not?

Because any district that includes Minneapolis is by default Omar's sear. And if you split Minneapolis, Omar just gets the district that doesn't go to someone else (probably Dean Phillips)

Wouldn't MN Ds be punished if they passed an overly obvious gerrymander?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

That is not possible.

why not?

Because any district that includes Minneapolis is by default Omar's sear. And if you split Minneapolis, Omar just gets the district that doesn't go to someone else (probably Dean Phillips)

Wouldn't MN Ds be punished if they passed an overly obvious gerrymander?

Were Republicans punished for doing this in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia?

Question: is MN the same as MI, NC, OH, and GA?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I were drawing the MN map D gerrymander for 2020, I would try to pack Republicans into 2 seats, keep seats intact for McCollum, Craig, and Philips, draw away the seats of Omar and Peterson, while creating 2 new open Democratic seats which would be up for grabs for a primary.

That is not possible.

why not?

Because any district that includes Minneapolis is by default Omar's sear. And if you split Minneapolis, Omar just gets the district that doesn't go to someone else (probably Dean Phillips)

Wouldn't MN Ds be punished if they passed an overly obvious gerrymander?

Were Republicans punished for doing this in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia?

Question: is MN the same as MI, NC, OH, and GA?

Yeah they are all states.

http://www.jcpa.org/dje/articles2/minn3.htm