OK-GOV primary runoffs: Who wins?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

There is no fair way you can draw a tossup seat in Oklahoma County

A tossup CD? You are likely right on that. However, a CD located wholely in Oklahoma County is definitely possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

There is no fair way you can draw a tossup seat in Oklahoma County

A tossup CD? You are likely right on that. However, a CD located wholely in Oklahoma County is definitely possible.

I’m aware. Just pointing out that even if you kept OKC intact, the best you can do is about R+6ish. Aka, far from a tossup seat

True.
I think actually it might be more promising for OK-02 to be redrawn to include North Tulsa.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

There is no fair way you can draw a tossup seat in Oklahoma County

A tossup CD? You are likely right on that. However, a CD located wholely in Oklahoma County is definitely possible.

I’m aware. Just pointing out that even if you kept OKC intact, the best you can do is about R+6ish. Aka, far from a tossup seat

Whipped this map up.
OK-01: 31% Obama, 42% Dem, R+23
OK-02: 40% Obama, 56% Dem, R+17
OK-03: 45% Obama, 51% Dem, R+5
OK-04: 30% Obama, 48% Dem, R+25
OK-05: 27% Obama, 40% Dem, R+26
OK overall: 34% Obama, 47% Dem, R+20