NY-14: Goliath falls to OCASIO!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Crowley has been taking the primary challenge very seriously, but his loss would be very similar to Dave Brat’s upset win in VA-07 several years ago. Joe Crawley is a part of Democratic House leadership and Pelosi’s likely successor as Speaker/Minority House Leader, so his loss would send shockwaves through the entire Democratic Party.

There's one way it isn't as similar: it isn't as machine driven in the Old Dominion...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

hilarious!

This guy has always seemed like a hack, I have no sympathy for Democrats that voted for Iraq losing their seats.

While I don't care much for Crowley, I can't see him losing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I prefer Crowley over AOC because of factors X mentioned.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The largest anger behind the scenes coming from the whole Twitter spat in which Ocasio Cortez claimed that Crowley was going to attempt a 3rd Party Run, with Dem Representatives saying that those type of inexperienced outbursts could be responsible for costing Democrats The House of Representatives this year.

Holy crap. Democratic elected representatives are even more out of touch than I thought they were if they genuinely believe that some random candidate from Queens is going to cost Democrats the House. The Republicans nominated a literal Nazi in Illinois. A literal Nazi. Yet Ocasio Cortez getting in an immature Twitter argument with Crowley will cost Democrats the House.

These people are a joke.

They are absolutely terrified of her and what she represents. They know they’re not going to last long in this political moment. But instead of trying to stymie potential challenges by moving to the left, they’re lashing out like wounded animals.

Just because they’re Democrats doesn’t mean they’re not the enemy as well.

You’re normally a pretty good poster, so I’d advise you to cool it with “enemy” talk. Big tent parties have plenty of room for diverse perspectives and all hands on deck to combat Trumpism. Everyone’s getting WAY too worked up about old dinosaurs like Pascrell overreacting to AOC flubbing one interview.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bill Pascrell, Alcee Hastings, and Lacy Clay sounds like a great list of Congressmen who need to be primaried.

Throw in Lipinski and Cuellar and you'd have most of my list.

I certainly wouldn't mind most of that list being gone, but a lot of them would be super-hard to touch. Cuellar, especially, who is basically invincible despite being terrible.

I do think Lipinski is 100% toast in 2020 and will likely not run for reelection in that year. Hastings will be in his mid-80s in 2020, but he seems the type who wants to die in Congress.

Im fine with Blue Dogs, as long as they hold a tossup or tilt D seat. Im fine with Peterson, but not with Lipinski. I did this entire analysis, and found that only 7 members of the 18 people congress(8 out of 19 with Lamb) hold a safe seat. So, why arent they represented by a more liberal Democrat? And even then, the progressives hold the same amount of tossup seats. Really, I want like, 6 Blue Dogs, or it dissolved entirely. Just join the new Dem Caucus, its not 2006.

Reason I said Cullear is basically invincible is that most of those Laredo-area Dems are Dems like him. He's basically that district in human form.

what makes him so strong?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Broadly speaking, she was asked how you pay for “these ideas” and she didn’t give a bad answer to how one pays for most progressive programs. Of course, she didn’t give an explicit answer for how Medicare for All would be paid for, which is problematic. With that said, Ocasio-Cortez needs to shut up and focus on learning about the issues representing her district so she can actually be ready on Day 1.

She does not care, she knows she has the seat no matter what, and as a result is too busy doing other stuff she likes doing more to even fake caring.

If she truly didn't care, she wouldn't spent her post-2016 life protesting standing rock, risk putting her life on hold to run a tedious and tiring year long campaign that had very little chance of winning and doing so without taking money from large corporations. She could have easily gotten into politics by being allies with big money interests who are destroying our country but she did not. Now I don't agree with her on everything but I have yet to see substantive reasoning that she doesn't care.

^this guy gets it