Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Senate Leadership Fund as we speak:

Quoted for truth.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed.  

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

Those are fair statements.  As you said, it's just one data point among others.  There have been Congressional specials this cycle with some small swings, some large ones (all toward the Democrats).  There's naturally going to be some variation in results among the entire set of such elections.  The point is that the final margin in November is likely to be closer to the average of these results, rather than to an extreme on either end.

This is the list of results compiled by Harry Enten (who, incidentally, defines swing as the change from the district's partisan lean):



Source: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1013418919363858433

(No, I don't think the final margin in November will be D+16.  As I've said elsewhere, I think this is a reasonable upper bound on the likely Democratic margin, with the GCB average as a reasonable lower bound. )

What if that partisan lean was redefined to be 50/50 as opposed to 75/25?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I mean, it would be fair to take from this result some pessimism on Beto O'Rourke's chances, given that he'd need some kind of major shift in Texas voting patterns that might be unexpected Hispanic turnout which didn't show up here.

Well, given that O'Rourke never had a shot at winning in the first place, this really isn't news.

Lmao he's down 5 in the latest poll. If being down 5 means you have no shot then we might as well call WV, MT, and MO Safe D at this point.

Polling isn't everything, as we learned in 2016.

Polling was fine in 2016.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

O'Bannon will wind up winning, hello Rep elect OBannon😁

first time an O'Bannon wins a race since 2000?