Icelandic parliamentary election 2016

[BundouYMB]

Þjóðarpúls Gallup has a new poll out this morning:

Pirate Party -- 32.4% (down 3.7% since their poll last week, up 27.3% since the 2013 election)
Independence Party -- 21.9% (down 1% since their poll last week, down 4.8% since the 2013 election)
Left-Green Movement -- 16.7% (up 5.7% since their poll last week, up 5.8% since the 2013 election)
Progress Party -- 10.8% (down 1.2% since their poll last week, down 13.6% since the 2013 election)
Social Democratic Alliance -- 7.6% (down 1.9% since their poll last week, down 5.3% since the 2013 election)
Bright Future -- 5.6% (up 1.4% since their poll last week, down 2.7% since the 2013 election)
Others -- 5.0%

Link: http://ruv.is/frett/fylgid-snareykst-hja-vg-en-dalar-hja-pirotum

I'm guessing SDA politicians were also implicated in the Panama Papers?

[BundouYMB]

FTR, btw, the Icelandic Gallup is generally considered to be the "gold standard" of polling in the country. Two other firms, MMR and Fréttablaðið also poll regularly. I don't know much about either of them, but MMR seems to have performed fine in the 2013 election while Fréttablaðið missed the result by a sizeable margin, incl. having Progress in the lead.

Weren't the Progressives already down to their absolute core of support even pre-Panama Papers?

Yes, pretty much. The funny thing is it didn't take much for it to happen. There's been a few gaffes but AFAIK no big scandals before the Panama Papers. They've basically been criticized for pandering too much to their rural voters and in no time at all their urban voters abandoned them for Independence or the opposition.

[BundouYMB]

Oh, wow. I just found something really interesting. Party leader approval ratings from the latest MMR poll.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left-Greens) 59% approve, 21% disapprove
Óttarr Proppé (Bright Future) 42% approve, 27% disapprove
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson (Pirate Party) 40% approve, 30% disapprove
Bjarni Benediktsson (Independence) 22% approve, 61% disapprove
Árni Páll Árnason (Social Democratic) 15% approve, 51% disapprove
Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Progressive) 10% approve, 81% disapprove (!!!!!!!!!!)

Interestingly, they also polled SDA vice-president and Reykjavik mayor Dagur Bergþóruson Eggertsson. He was not only MUCH better liked (29% approve, 44% disapprove) but also better known than the actual leader!

By the way, Progress seems to have changed leaders and now Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson will lead them into the election. This can't possibly help them at this point, can it?

Link: http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/530-10-prosent-bera-mikid-traust-til-sigmundar-davids

[BundouYMB]

New Þjóðarpúls Gallup:


Pirate Party -- 29.3% (-3.1%)
Independence Party -- 26.7% (+4.8%)
Left-Green Movement -- 19.8% (+3.1%)
Progress Party -- 6.9% (-3.9%)
Social Democratic Alliance -- 9.0% (+1.4%)
Bright Future -- 5.0% (-0.6%)
Others -- 3.3% (-1.7%)

Changes compared to their poll last week.

Link: http://ruv.is/frett/sjalfstaedisflokkurinn-storeykur-fylgi-sitt