Trying to predict the results of the next election before a single vote has been cast in the current one is a fool's game.
Not really. It is almost a certainty that the Dems would lose seats in 2018 if they win in 2016.
Even if the economy is good?
1966,1986, 1994, 2006, 2014. A good economy doesnt help the incumbent party much but does hurt if it is bad.
The economy wasn't good in 1966 or 2014.
Are you serious?
1966 was the middle of the 1961-69 boom. GNP growth was 4% or higher that year. 2014 was pretty decent, the best year since 2006 for GDP growth and for jobs the best year since 1999.
Yes, I'm serious. To me, and evidently to voters, cost and standard of living determine whether a economy is good as much as GDP. 1966 was the beginning of the 1970s inflation crisis, and 2014 has seen lower wages than before the recession.
I think that Republican gains in 1966 had more to do with "law and order" type issues then the economy.
