Radical Changes Elections Timeline

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Is there any reason for Arizona's shade of grey being different than all the other states on the governorship maps? Or was that just an error? And I'm interested in seeing if Gore sees challenges from Democratic Party in addition to the Republican Party for the next election as well.

Sorry, Arizona is supposed to be blue. Governor Napolitano has announced specifically that she will remain uncommitted and neither support nor oppose the IWR, while the lighter grey color is meant to indicate that the governor of the state in question has simply made no relevant announcement yet.

The 2004 election will certainly be interesting, to say the least.

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RADICAL CHANGES - 2000 TO 2056 ELECTORAL TIMELINE

Season 4 - Let the Changes Begin

Episode 8 - The Empire Strikes Back

February 16 to March 3, 2003

Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) becomes the fifty-eighth member of the United States Senate to endorse President Gore's Iraq War Resolution in a passionate speech delivered outside the Senate chamber on February 23.

Six. Just six. Six was the magical number.

Six was the number that would decide the fate of millions of lives across the world - the number that would determine the course of history for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Six was the number that an anxious world would lose sleep over, a world that could wait no longer to see if its sons and daughters would live or die.

And President Al Gore was determined to get those six votes.

On Monday, a meeting with Bill Nelson and Bob Graham. On Tuesday, out to lunch with Chris Dodd. On Wednesday, a barbecue with Tom Harkin's family certainly couldn't hurt. And on Thursday, a conference with Ron Wyden and Jon Corzine was on the schedule.

The shock surrounding Prime Minister Blair's assassination certainly would not damage the popularity of a War on Terror - in fact, just last Sunday, President Gore managed to capture the fifty-first, fifty-second, fifty-third, and fifty-fourth votes for the IWR in gaining the endorsements of Ben Campbell, George Voinovich, Tom Carper, and even Herb Kohl. But fifty-four was still six too few.

Finally, on Friday, the President's gamble paid off. Maria Cantwell, Brad Owen, and Bill Nelson down. Three to go.

Sunday saw Joe Biden and Tom Harkin hop on board. Good. Just one left. President Gore could feel the suspense begin to dwindle down.

And just as quickly as the fight to begin the War on Terror began seventeen dreadful months ago when two airplanes crashed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, it was over.

It would one day go down in history as a great irony that the senior Senator from California ended the struggle that the junior Senator from California began. That dreary, misty morning, when Dianne Feinstein stepped outside the doors of her Senate office to announce that the President had, in fact, finally garnered enough votes to override the Senate filibuster, part of America celebrated. Fireworks leapt into the sky with the strength and passion only America could offer, grills were set ablaze in preparation for a celebration that was never to be forgotten, and part of America cheered as it finally became clear that the widely-anticipated War on Terror was to begin.

But another part of America was nowhere near as euphoric. Alone in his barracks, an American soldier deployed abroad crumpled to the floor as the shrill voice of a CNN news anchor confirmed that his Great Unknown was all but certain, that he would likely never see the smiling faces of his wife and children again. A tear rolled down the eye of an Air Force pilot sitting alone in his solitary home on the countryside as he heard the news, praying that he would not once more have to lead the men in his squadron to their deaths at the hands of a foreign enemy.

And in her cold, near-empty office overlooking the Capitol Building, the moment that Barbara Boxer had feared for days was finally upon her. The movement that she had started only a few mere months ago had come to an abrupt and painful end, strangled to death at the hands of the woman that she once considered her closest political ally.

America was divided. But the majority had spoken - a war was to begin. And this was no ordinary war.

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Woah....PM Prescott. That will get ugly. I hope Labor for their own sake throws Brown into the leadership soon.

Prescott will probably be able to hold on until at least 2005 simply due to the circumstances he's found himself in, but I don't think an eventual leadership challenge from Brown is quite out of the question.

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About to get back to this. Thoughts on the IWR?

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RADICAL CHANGES - 2000 TO 2056 ELECTORAL TIMELINE

Season 4 - Let the Changes Begin

Episode 9 - A House Divided

March 7, 2003

Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL) introduces the Iraq War Resolution for a final roll call vote on the floor of the United States House of Representatives.

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"Have all members voted? Does any member wish to change their vote?"

The floor of the most powerful deliberative body in the world was silent. An eerie sensation crept throughout the chamber, the cool atmosphere serving only as a testament to the sentiment within. Congressmen and congresswomen looked nervously at one another - not making a sound - and waited for the final verdict.

Those few seconds seemed like hours to some, and like days to others. So much was at stake - perhaps more than at any moment in the history of the United States since the Second World War - and it all relied on one small slip of paper resting in the Speaker's hand.

Dennis Hastert adjusted his glasses and looked down at the folded piece of parchment that had just been handed to him. He sighed. Whether it passed or not, this bill would likely one day turn out to be the deciding moment of his legacy. The Speaker shivered at his podium, not knowing whether to blame the cool temperature of the chamber or the paradox of inevitability and uncertainty that he felt within. He cleared his throat and unfolded the slip.

"On this vote, the Ayes are two hundred and seventy-five, the Nays are one hundred and sixty. The motion is adopted. Without objection, the motion to reconsider is laid upon the table."

A surge of warmth suddenly filled the chamber, reaching and overwhelming all within its grasp. For some, this was the proudest moment of their political careers - they would be able to go back to their families, their donors, and their constituents, and brag about what was sure to be one of the most glorious successes in the history of the United States House. Across the floor, two hundred and seventy-five souls leapt.

But for another one hundred and sixty members, the warmth that had filled the chamber was of quite a different nature. This warmth was one of shock, of heartache - of anger. For many, all the future seemed to hold was cruel, cruel defeat - the inevitable meetings with disappointed constituents had just become hundreds of time more real, the tears in the eyes of the mothers, fathers, husbands, wives, sisters, brothers, sons, and daughters who were about to see their loved ones shipped off to a place unknown had just become hundreds of times clearer. Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones crumpled to the ground, unable to accept the tenacity of her defeat - all to well did she know that across America, hundreds were doing the same.

But it was done. No more fight, no more uncertainty. Confirmation in the Senate was essentially given at this point, and even those most passionately opposed to the war knew that nothing could be done to convince President Gore to change his mind.

And a mere one hour after Speaker Hastert had announced the result of the roll call vote, the House Chamber was silent once more. Not silent with the nervousness and the bated breath of its members, but with utter and complete abandonment. The room in which the fate of the world had been decided was empty.

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FINAL HOUSE ROLL CALL VOTE ON THE IRAQ WAR RESOLUTION: Two hundred and seventy-five Ayes, one hundred and sixty Nays. One hundred and sixty-seven Republicans and one hundred and eight Democrats voting for, fifty-two Republicans and one hundred and eight Democrats voting against.

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Great timeline! If you don't mind my asking, who are some potential 2004 challengers to President Gore?

Thanks!

That's not something I can fully reveal yet, but I'll float the names Elizabeth Dole, John Hoeven, and Bob Taft.

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RADICAL CHANGES - 2000 TO 2056 ELECTORAL TIMELINE

Season 4 - Let the Changes Begin

Episode 10 - The Verdict Awaits

March 8, 2003

FINAL SENATE ROLL CALL VOTE ON THE IRAQ WAR RESOLUTION: Sixty-seven Ayes, thirty-three Nays. Thirty-six Republicans and thirty-one Democrats voting for, twelve Republicans and twenty-one Democrats voting against.

Senators Voting in the Affirmative - Baucus, Bayh, Bennett, Biden, Bond, Breaux, Bunning, Campbell, Cantwell, Carnahan, Carper, Cleland, Clinton, Cochran, Collins, Conrad, Corzine, Crapo, Daschle, DeWine, Dodd, Dole, Domenici, Dorgan, Edwards, Ensign, Enzi, Feinstein, Fitzgerald, Graham of Florida, Graham of South Carolina, Grassley, Gregg, Hagel, Harkin, Hatch, Hollings, Hutchinson of Arkansas, Hutchinson of Texas, Kohl, Kyl, Lincoln, Lott, Lugar, McCain, McConnell, Miller, Murkowski, Nelson of Florida, Nelson of Nebraska, Owen, Reid, Roberts, Rockefeller, Schumer, Shaheen, Shelby, Smith, Snowe, Specter, Stevens, Strickland, Thompson, Thune, Voinovich, Warner, Wyden

Senators Voting in the Negative - Akaka, Allen, Bingaman, Boxer, Brownback, Burns, Byrd, Chafee, Craig, Dayton, Durbin, Feingold, Frank, Frist, Gejdenson, Gramm, Inhofe, Inouye, Jeffords, Lautenberg, Leahy, Levin, Markey, Mikulski, Nickles, Reed, Santorum, Sarbanes, Sessions, Stabenow, Terrell, Thomas, Wellstone

Support and Opposition for the Iraq War Resolution by State

United States Senate

Green - Both For
Red - Both Against
Blue - One For; One Against

United States House of Representatives

Green - Majority of Delegation For
Red - Majority of Delegation Against
Blue - Delegation Tied

United States State Governorships

Green - For
Red - Against
Blue - Uncommitted

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I think I've decided to wrap up Season 4 here; Season 5 will start shortly. Expect more on the 2004 presidential race, international politics, and the eventual conclusion of what was for sure a rough start to the Iraq War. If anyone has any other questions or comments, I'd love to take them now!

I'm also thinking of maybe starting Season 5 in a new thread because OCD.

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Will there be an anti-Iraq war Primary Challenge for Gore in 2004?

It really depends on how the war goes.

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Bump

Thanks! The first post for Season 5 should be up shortly.

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Radical Changes Electoral Timeline - Season 5

Table of Contents

Episode 1: The Iraq War - Part I
Episode 2: An Update on Domestic Affairs
Episode 3: An Early Look - Election '04
Episode 4: Terror Strikes
Episode 5: And So It Begins
Episode 6: A New Era
Episode 7: Election '04 - Part 4
Episode 8: Election '04 - Part 5
Episode 9: A Final Chance
Episode 10: The Reveal

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The Iraq War - Part I

The Iraq War Resolution signed into law by President Al Gore on March 15, 2003 was very different than the one many expected would be similarly enacted by a hypothetical President George W. Bush. Many - including the former Texas Governor - argued that the resolution did not go nearly as far as it should have in authorizing the use of military force against the Iraqi government, with a number of sitting Republicans in both the House and the Senate who voted against the resolution maintaining that they would have supported it had it given enough powers to the United States Armed Forces for them to, in their opinion, actually win the war quickly and effectively. However, the resolution had been passed as it was, and the war was to begin under the control and advice of President Gore regardless of protest.

By the time the IWR was signed into law, a number of other nations - namely Australia, Poland, and Spain - had passed similar resolutions on their own, well aware of the fact that the United States had begun preparations for an invasion the previous October. The United Kingdom, under the leadership of John Prescott, was to follow only three days later, and on March 29, the so-called invasion began. Many questioned whether the word "invasion" had been used aptly, as very few ground troops from any of the participating nations had actually been deployed, and the lone coordinated missile strikes on Baghdad authorized by President Gore and Prime Minister Prescott left many feeling that the two leaders were not themselves all that invested in a full-fledged attack upon the Hussein Administration. Prime Minister Aznar announced on March 31 that he would not be willing to fully commit more troops to fighting in the region if other nations - namely the United States and the United Kingdom - were not willing to do so as well. In fact, many claimed that Gore's lack of preparation and unwillingness to fully engage left the Iraqi government an opportunity to put its guard up, and by April 2, a rather well-constructed makeshift missile defense system had been developed and placed around the capital.

Nonetheless, Gore remained extremely popular within his own nation's borders, boasting an 81% approval rating as the month of April arrived. Prime Minister Prescott himself was awarded a not quite as spectacular but still significant 64% approval around the same time, a testament of the still noticeable feeling of solidarity inside and between the two nations in light of the two recent separate tragedies that had struck each of them. Furthermore, on April 7, three days after substantial numbers of ground troops were finally permitted to enter Iraqi borders, US troops scored an important victory outside of the city of Najaf, boosting public morale and restoring confidence in Gore's ability to lead the invasion in a competent manner.

However, Gore's good luck did not last long. By mid-April, progress in reaching Baghdad had slowed significantly, and while airstrikes were proving to be effective once again, many began to predict once more that the conflict would take longer than initially expected. Political cartoons depicting Gore and Prescott as ignorant and indecisive flourished, and political analysts suggested that the President's approvals would likely begin to falter once more. The Iraqi cities of Basra and Karbala were providing unexpectedly strong resistance against American and British troops, and with President Gore being forced to focus on domestic matters once more as the 2004 election approached, the leader who only a few weeks ago experienced one of the largest political victories of his career began to perceive melancholy ahead once again.

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Great Update man!

Thanks!

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An Update on Domestic Affairs

By mid-April, prospects were looking good for the Gore Administration once more, with a coalition of American and British troops having successfully toppled opposition in the Iraqi cities of Basra and Karbala and the President's approval rating maintaining a rather sturdy hover around 80% - a near all-time high. By April 5, Gore was told by his military advisers that the coalition would reach Baghdad in less than two weeks. And on April 6, the Senate confirmed Laura Tyson as the new Secretary of Treasury, following a prolonged fight that at times seemed unwinnable for the Gore Administration. For one of the first times in three years, Al Gore considered himself a truly happy President.

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Meanwhile, the situation that President Gore's colleagues in the Senate and House of Representatives had found themselves facing in recent days was not nearly as favorable. On April 9, the Drudge Report released a video showing a rather serious confrontation between Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) and Senator George Allen (R-VA), with the footage showing Lott grabbing Allen by his collar and uttering some sort of threat before Allen pushes the Minority Leader to the side, causing him to break his glasses. The video of the confrontation was released one week after a congressional staffer allegedly heard Senator John Breaux (D-LA) call fellow Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) a "whiny bitch" shortly after leaving a committee meeting, and while each of the Senators involved declined to comment regarding their motives when asked, some believe that the events may have been correlated.

However, not all news on Capitol Hill was unfortunate. On April 13, Congress passed the Bingaman-Hatch Act of 2003, a bipartisan piece of legislation designed to better regulate corporate misconduct and provide higher accountability for corporate fraud investigations. While some parts of the legislation were cut shortly before being put to a vote in order to ensure majority support in both the House and Senate, the bill eventually passed by respective votes of 351-76 and 64-34, and became law on April 15.

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An Early Look - Election '04

With unprecedented conflicts brewing at home and abroad and history being made at a moment's notice, the 2004 presidential election was sure to be one for the ages.

The first candidate to announce a bid for the presidency was Senator Conrad Burns of Montana, a staunch conservative known for his distinct and often controversial views. Senator Burns made his April 2 announcement at his hometown in Billings, Montana, arguing that America "needs an honest, God-fearing, conservative leader rather than some knee-jerk liberal who can't get things done."

Two weeks after his entry into the race, Senator Burns received his first major challenger - Governor John Hoeven of North Dakota. A popular first-term incumbent, Hoeven had a reputation as a moderate reformer, emphasizing his record as Governor as a main theme in his announcement speech.

While some in the Establishment wing of the GOP were keen to back Hoeven after his announcement, most chose to wait for the candidate of their choice to enter the race before endorsing, with all eyes on 2000 Republican Vice Presidential nominee and former Senator Dick Cheney of Wyoming. While Cheney had not yet announced his candidacy as of mid-April, his frequent appearances at fundraisers and party events in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire suggested that he was, in fact, ready for a run. Others on the Republican side who had expressed interest in joining the race included Governor Bob Taft of Ohio, Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, and Governor Frank Murkowski of Alaska, though each of those listed were yet to initiate a formal campaign. Former Education Secretary and Governor Lamar Alexander also expressed interest in running, though had mostly refrained from engaging in campaign activities in recent months.

CBS News - National Republican Primary Poll (April 19)

Dick Cheney - 27%
John Hoeven - 15%
Conrad Burns - 11%
Bob Taft - 8%
Lamar Alexander - 5%
Richard Lugar - 3%
Frank Murkowski - 2%
Undecided - 29%

Meanwhile, the first candidate to make an announcement on the Democratic side was none other than President Al Gore himself, who, in a televised speech broadcasted on April 18, announced his decision to seek reelection to a second term in office. Gore, emphasizing his nearly 80% approval rating and reminiscing upon the successes of his first term in office, stressed the need to "come together and unite in this time of great urgency," telling the American people to join him in "fighting to promote and defend the rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness for Americans and world citizens abroad." Gore also emphasized his domestic policy achievements, describing his Administration's "unwavering desire to create a better future for all of the children of our nation, whether that be through education, protecting the environment, or advocating for the introduction of universal civil rights for all" and describing "the fight that all the American people must engage in and embrace in order to secure a brighter tomorrow." As of mid-April, Gore remained virtually unopposed in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, attracting none but trivial opposition.

CBS News - National Democratic Primary Poll (April 19)

Al Gore - 94%
Lyndon LaRouche - 2%
Undecided - 4%

While there was some talk of an anti-Iraq War protest candidate on the Democratic side, it appeared that there was none to be found for the time being, leaving Gore with near-unanimous support.

CBS News - National General Election Poll (April 19)

Al Gore - 54%
Dick Cheney - 41%
Undecided - 5%

Al Gore - 52%
John Hoeven - 43%
Undecided - 5%

Al Gore - 59%
Conrad Burns - 37%
Undecided - 4%

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Please feel free to comment! Thanks for reading!

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TERROR STRIKES

Attack in Karbala Kills Over 230

The world was overwhelmed by mourning on April 26 as a coordinated terrorist attack in the Iraqi city of Karbala killed more than two hundred and thirty civilians and injured almost seven hundred others, with the al-Qaeda terrorist group claiming responsibility for the massacre that many say was the largest single terrorist attack on Iraqi soil in modern history.

The attack, which al-Qaeda claims was due to the alleged betrayal of the Iraqi people and way of life by Western leaders, began around 11:00 AM AST when four unidentified suicide bombers associated with the al-Qaeda group detonated their suicide vests on separate crowded city streets, killing a combined estimated one-hundred and ninety or more pedestrians. A fifth bomber was captured by Iraqi police shortly before the planned detonation time and is currently in American custody. The suicide bombing was followed by a series of coordinated shootings around the city, with terrorists in at least two restaurants and one primary school massacring civilians before being apprehended by security. A total of thirty-three children are estimated to have been killed as a result of the attack, with two American and three British peacekeepers among the total two-hundred and thirty casualties.

Response to the attack was swift and hard-hitting, with Iraqi security forces in the region initiating a full lock down of the city to locate the remaining terrorists involved and prevent any co-conspirators from leaving. The international response was also quick, with President Gore calling the massacre an "indefensible and brutal mass murder of innocent men, women, and children who were merely trying to live their lives in peace." Prime Minister Prescott, after speaking with the families of the three British peacekeepers killed, called the attacks "absolutely outrageous" and promised not to back down in the face of increased adversity from opposition groups in the region.

The attack - which many blamed on insufficient security support from American and British peacekeeping forces - followed a rather depressing week for coalition troops on the Iraqi front. On April 23, Iraqi forces successfully prevented the infiltration of a key security outpost outside Baghdad by coalition troops, and the next day, twenty-two Americans were killed when an Iraqi lieutenant masquerading as a civilian detonated a bomb two miles from an American bunker. Both events were widely reported in the American media, and - combined with the recent attack in Karbala - significantly damaged Gore's reputation among the American people as a reliable Commander in Chief.

Things would be getting no better for President Gore, as on May 4, he received his first serious primary opponent for the upcoming 2004 presidential election, with Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana announcing his decision to challenge Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination. In a passionate speech delivered outside his office in the District of Columbia, Bayh pronounced his desire for a "stronger, more confident leader to take the reins of this great nation in such times of trouble," emphasizing the "need of the American people for a President who can navigate through conflict without hesitation or second thought." Senator Bayh's decision came as a complete surprise to most Democratic Party insiders, with many calling the spontaneous announcement a mere attempt to gain attention. However, a Bayh staffer maintained the seriousness of the campaign, revealing that internal polls had suggested President Gore's approval ratings had fallen steeply in past days due to the declining situation on the Iraqi front.

The negative trend was confirmed by the Marist polling firm, which, in a poll released on May 1, suggested that President Gore's approval had fallen a stunning 20 points to 59% compared to where it was one month ago. The Bayh campaign was apparently aware of the trend well before and had collected similar polling numbers through its internals, leading to the Senator's announcement.

Meanwhile, the GOP was seeing its presidential primary begin to gain steam as well, with former Senator and 2000 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Dick Cheney announcing his decision to enter the race. In his announcement at a Republican fundraising event in Iowa, Cheney blasted the Gore Administration for "providing insufficient leadership in the face of the most serious security threat to the American people since the Cold War," attacking Gore for "weak policies and weak leadership that will make for a weak America if he's allowed four more years." Cheney's presidential announcement was followed in rapid succession by those of Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), Governor Frank Murkowski (R-AK), and Governor Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID), each of whom announced their decisions to challenge Cheney for the GOP nomination in the first few days of May. While they had not yet announced, Ohio Governor Bob Taft and former Education Secretary Lamar Alexander both remained potential candidates for the GOP nomination, along with conservative activist and 2000 candidate for the GOP nomination Alan Keyes.

Marist College - Presidential Approval (May 6)

Approve - 59% (-20)
Disapprove - 38% (+19)
Undecided - 4% (+1)

Marist College - National Republican Primary Poll (May 6)

Dick Cheney - 31% (+4)
John Hoeven - 14% (-1)
Richard Lugar - 11% (+8)
Conrad Burns - 7% (-4)
Dirk Kempthorne - 7% (+7)
Bob Taft - 6% (-2)
Frank Murkowski - 5% (+3)
Lamar Alexander - 4% (-1)
Alan Keyes - 3% (+3)
Undecided - 12% (-17)

Marist College - National Democratic Primary Poll (May 6)

Al Gore - 81% (-13)
Evan Bayh - 8% (+8)
Lyndon LaRouche - 1% (-1)
Undecided - 10% (+6)

Marist College - General Election Match-Ups (May 6)

Al Gore - 49% (-5)
Dick Cheney - 46% (+5)
Undecided - 5% (+/-0)

Al Gore - 48% (-4)
John Hoeven - 46% (+3)
Undecided - 6% (+1)

Richard Lugar - 46%
Al Gore - 45%
Undecided - 9%

While general election polling did seem to imply good news for Republicans, the situation that the GOP had found itself in on Capitol Hill was nowhere near as promising. On April 5, a video was released of Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi vehemently throwing insults fellow Senator Larry Craig of Idaho during a conversation between the two, calling Craig a "loony strumpet so stupid [he] can't put one foot in front of the other" and proceeding to spit on Craig's shoe. The same day, a congressional staffer revealed to CNN that while at a formal event the night before, he had witnessed House Speaker Dennis Hastert throw a full glass of wine at Representative Spencer Bachus and nearly assaulting him before the Speaker was held back by two aides. While news networks and political analysts were still unable to decipher the meaning of the controversy as of early May - all parties involved in the incidents denied any connections - many suggested that the recent happenings signaled severe distress within rival sections of the GOP. Little did they know, the changes were only about to begin.

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Little did they know, the changes were only about to begin.

Oooh boy. This timeline is great!

Thanks!

When I started planning this timeline last June, I essentially created the whole plot before I even started this thread. The purpose of everything that has happened so far is basically to build up to one single main plot point, and that plot point will actually come in the next post so I'm very excited.

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As Senator Larry Craig approached the Senate floor, Minority Leader Trent Lott clenched his fist so hard that the ballpoint pen within it burst. He didn't notice, of course. Trent Lott was too busy seething with anger, looking into the eyes of the man who he knew would inevitably destroy his political career. He dared Larry Craig to look back.

But Larry Craig didn't. As the Senator from Idaho reached the front podium and calmly handed a stack of papers to the Senate clerk, he chuckled. Larry Craig could not care less what the thirty or so Republican Senators staring at him with eyes of rage thought of him; he was merely there to do business and had no intention whatsoever of going out of his way to appease them. In fact, his intention was to do just the opposite. He turned to an aide by his side and told him to go tell Mr. Nickles he was ready.

A few minutes later, the aide came back - this time with another group of Senators, a very different group than the group that had spent the past few minutes thinking to themselves how nice it would be for Senator Craig to be dead. As the group led by Senator Craig's aide entered the Senate chamber, mouths across the room fell. There were that many?

Thad Cochran couldn't believe what he was seeing. Larry Craig had already convinced eleven other Senators to join him? In the conversations he remembered having with Minority Leader Lott and Minority Whip McConnell, the consensus was that Larry Craig would be able to convince no more than three or four other Senators to join his cause. But there were eleven.

As the group led by the aide approached the front of the Senate floor, Senator Craig went out of his way to greet them each individually. Sam Brownback, Phil Gramm, Craig Thomas, Jeff Sessions, Suzanne Terrell, Conrad Burns, Jim Inhofe, Bill Frist, Rick Santorum, George Allen, and, of course, Don Nickles. They were all there, just as expected. Larry Craig grinned and turned towards the podium. Each of the eleven Senators who had joined Craig spread out behind him, eager to be captured by the unblinking eye of C-SPAN as part of the group of Craig's followers - explicitly not as part of the group of those he was about to address.

"Ladies and gentlemen of the United States Senate, I come here today to address the dishonesty and depravity that has corrupted each and every one of you. I come here today to expose to the American people your unwavering fraudulence.

"Ladies and gentlemen of the United States Senate, I come here today to propose an alternative to the American people who each and every one of you pledged to serve so diligently the moment you first entered this very Senate chamber. Most of you have failed to carry out that pledge, and all of you need to know it. So today, I come here with an alternative for the American people - an alternative that will protect the freedoms and liberties of our nation's people from those that wish to rid of them.

"Today, I - along with eleven other members of the United States Senate, nineteen members of the United States of House of Representatives, and two governors of two of the great states of our nation - have congregated to announce that we will no longer stand for the corruption and misguidance of the establishment of the Republican Party. We will no longer condone the forces that brought our nation into a misguided war, the forces that didn't even care enough to call the families of the twenty-two American soldiers who died two weeks and one day ago today as a result of the war President Gore and the Republican leadership in the Senate started.

"I'll tell you, I called up the families of each and every one of those twenty-two soldiers, and I told them that some of us up here on Capitol Hill would not stand for the travesty that our peers were all too keen to support. I listened to the mothers of those young men cry, and I listened to them tell me that they were no longer going to sit idly by and watch their sons friends die as well. I wasn't either.

"It is because of this that today I am announcing the formation of a Conservative Traditionalist Caucus in the United States Congress, a group of men and women who care more about fulfilling their promise to serve the American people than about fulfilling the desires of their bosses, who care more about the twenty-two young men who were killed in Iraq on April 24 than about the twenty-two old men on the board of the Republican National Committee who couldn't give less of a sh*t.

"While the Conservative Traditionalist Caucus we are forming today will still nominally associate with the Republican Party - by God, we can't just let Gore and the Democrats take over everything - we will not in any way associate with the dishonesty and decadence that has corrupted the Republican Party over the past few months and years. Instead, we will associate only with the values and traditions that have made our country the greatest to have ever found itself on God's green earth - the values that give the mothers of those twenty-two young men the strength to get out of bed each morning and face life's daily challenges knowing that their sons are still looking down upon them from heaven.

"That is all I have to say today. Goodbye."

Senator Craig collected his papers and stepped down from the podium. Senator Lott groaned.

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A New Era

If Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert had one wish, he told himself, he would wish to see Senator Larry Craig struck down by the wrath of God right before his eyes. As the Representative from Illinois sat down with his cup of coffee one dreary morning in his apartment in DC to enjoy the Sunday crossword, he noticed yet another headline regarding the incident that had happened only a few short days ago - "Senator Craig Continues to Bash GOP Leaders; Promises to Expand Newly Formed Caucus." Hastert twitched. That damned Senator from Idaho just couldn't let it go; he couldn't let it rest. Every day, it was more talk of corruption, more talk of how congressional leaders were apparently too underhanded to run a nation. All talk, no sense. All talk, no competence. All talk, and nothing but more attention.

As Hastert continued flipping through the paper, he came across a headline - "FOX Poll Explores Fight for Control of the GOP." Finally, Hastert thought to himself. It was time for some good news, and the poll was sure to confirm that Craig hadn't siphoned away any actual support from the mainstream Republican Party. There was no way the poll could suggest Craig and his damned new cabal was building a real public following, and Hastert knew it.

FOX News Poll (Self-Identified Republican Voters): May 15-17, 2003

Q1. Are you aware of the new Conservative Traditional Caucus formed by Idaho Senator Larry Craig?

Yes - 72%
No - 28%

Q2. What is your opinion of the Conservative Traditional Caucus?

Very Positive - 14%
Somewhat Positive - 19%
Neutral/Unsure - 38%
Somewhat Negative - 7%
Very Negative - 22%

Q3. Who do you support in the race for the 2004 Republican Party presidential nomination?

Dick Cheney - 30% (-1)
John Hoeven - 12% (-2)
Conrad Burns - 11% (+4)
Richard Lugar - 11% (+/-0)
Dirk Kempthorne - 10% (+3)
Lamar Alexander - 4% (+/-0)
Frank Murkowski - 4% (-1)
Bob Taft - 4% (-2)
Alan Keyes - 1% (-2)
Undecided - 13% (+1)

Q4. Do you more closely align with the Conservative Traditional Caucus or the Mainstream Republican Party?

Mainstream Republican Party - 54%
Conservative Traditional Caucus - 29%
Undecided - 17%

Dennis Hastert's cup of coffee crashed onto the floor, forgotten. The Speaker could not believe what he was seeing. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans aligned with that idiot's caucus more than the mainstream GOP? Twenty-nine percent? Hastert threw the paper into a wastebasket and grabbed his briefcase. Today wasn't going to be a good day.

______________________________

President Gore was faring no better. Sitting at his desk in the Oval Office, Gore slowly chewed on a biscuit, not even bothering to glance at the news briefing on his desk. An aide walked in.

"Mr. President? You may want to see this."

She handed him a small slip of slightly-wrinkled computer paper. He looked down.

Quinnipiac Poll: May 14-16, 2003

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Al Gore?

Approve - 54% (-5)
Disapprove - 42% (+4)
Undecided - 4% (+1)

Q2 (Republicans Only). Who is your first preference in the 2004 Republican Party presidential primary?

Dick Cheney - 31% (+/-0)
John Hoeven - 12% (-2)
Conrad Burns - 10% (+3)
Richard Lugar - 10% (-1)
Dirk Kempthorne - 9% (+2)
Bob Taft - 5% (-1)
Lamar Alexander - 4% (+/-0)
Frank Murkowski - 4% (-1)
Alan Keyes - 2% (-1)
Undecided - 13% (+1)

Q3 (Democrats Only). Who is your first preference in the 2004 Democratic Party presidential primary?

Al Gore -76% (-5)
Evan Bayh - 12% (+4)
Lyndon LaRouche - 2% (+1)
Undecided - 10% (+/-0)

Q4. Which candidate would you support in the following general election match-ups?

Dick Cheney - 50% (+4)
Al Gore - 46% (-3)
Undecided - 4% (-1)

John Hoeven - 49% (+3)
Al Gore - 45% (-3)
Undecided - 6% (+/-0)

Al Gore - 52% (-7)
Conrad Burns - 42% (+5)
Undecided - 6% (+2)

Richard Lugar - 48% (+2)
Al Gore - 44% (-1)
Undecided - 8% (-1)

Al Gore - 45%
Dirk Kempthorne - 45%
Undecided - 10%

The President sighed. This would be a long race.

[/]

Craig; Hart Announce Bids Following Chaotic Week

This week, the 2004 presidential race became even more enthralling as two more major candidates entered the competition for their parties' respective presidential nominations, capping off what many say will one day be looked back on as one of the most eventful months in modern political history.

On May 19, Senator Larry Craig of Idaho - a recent household name due to his part in the founding of the newly-formed Conservative Traditional Caucus - continued his foray into national politics with the announcement of a presidential bid of his own, further angering leaders of the GOP Establishment and assuring a competitive primary season through the upcoming year. In a speech delivered to a crowd of over 7,000 shortly outside the National Mall, Craig declared this year's fight for the Republican presidential nomination to be "the ultimate fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party," attacking other candidates for their alleged "insiderism" and proclaiming to be the only candidate who could "truly bring this party back to the party of Lincoln and away from the party of big money and special interests." While Craig's announcement was widely lauded by supporters of his Conservative Traditional Caucus, the reaction from other groups was not nearly as warm, with current GOP frontrunner Dick Cheney calling Craig "a liar and a cheater who doesn't know what he's talking about" and House Speaker Dennis Hastert labeling him a "bumbling idiot." However, likely the most disappointed due to Craig's announcement was none other than fellow member of the CTC and presidential candidate Conrad Burns, who had previously claimed to be the official candidate of the Conservative Traditional Caucus before Craig's entry into the race. When asked about Craig's announcement, Burns emphasized that he would remain in the race, though failed to comment upon whether he believed he or Craig served a larger role in the development of the CTC itself.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary race was certainly no calmer, with former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado becoming the second major candidate to challenge President Al Gore for his own party's presidential nomination on May 20. In his announcement speech, Gary Hart called for "more responsible leadership in these times of trouble," attacking Gore for his "poor decision-making skills" and contrasting Gore's alleged "incapability to lead" with his own "experience in making the choices that are best for the American people" throughout his time as a Senator. Emphasizing his position as the only major candidate in either party so far to have announced his opposition to the Iraq War, Hart also attacked Senator Evan Bayh - President Gore's other chief rival for the Democratic nomination - for Bayh's support of more military involvement in Iraq, stressing that "the only way to get us out of this Iraq War mess is to end the war, not to get us further in it."

Of course, the media was quick to discuss Hart's alleged extramarital affair, which had dogged and ultimately derailed his previous presidential campaign in 1988. While the scandal was almost twenty years old, many still questioned Hart's trustworthiness, and during his appearance on the Late Show a day after his announcement, Hart was questioned regarding the morality of his earlier actions.

David Letterman: "Now, Mr. Hart, as people are learning more about you, they're also learning about your history, and many are wondering about the affair that led to the suspension of your earlier presidential bid in 1988. How can the American people put their trust in you to be a moral leader?"

Senator Hart: "You know, David, I can't agree with you more that this election revolves around the morality of our actions. But how can I be attacked for a harmless incident eighteen years ago when our current President - President Gore - is initiating one of the most harmful and unneeded military conflicts in our nation's history? How can you question my morality when it's the other candidates - not me - arguing for a war that has already costed hundreds of lives and has the potential to cost thousands more?"

Hart's response was widely seen as acceptable by the public and the media, and conversation regarding Hart's affair was put to rest soon after.

The same week, two other candidates entered the presidential field of contenders, with Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning and conservative activist Alan Keyes both announcing their bids for the GOP nomination. However, due to the announcements of Craig and Hart, neither of the other entries gained much press attention. The week also saw Ohio Governor Bob Taft announce that he would not mount a bid for the presidency in 2004, coming as a surprise to many.

ABC/Washington Post - Presidential Approval (May 22)

Approve - 45% (-9)
Disapprove - 47% (+5)
Undecided - 8% (+4)

ABC/Washington Post - Political Alignment Among Republicans (May 22)

Mainstream Republican Party - 51% (-3)
Conservative Traditional Caucus - 34% (+5)
Undecided - 15% (-2)

ABC/Washington Post - National Republican Primary Poll (May 22)

Dick Cheney - 28% (-3)
Larry Craig - 19% (+19)
Richard Lugar - 11% (+1)
John Hoeven - 9% (-3)
Dirk Kempthorne - 6% (-3)
Conrad Burns - 5% (-5)
Frank Murkowski - 4% (+/-0)
Lamar Alexander - 3% (-1)
Jim Bunning - 3% (+3)
Alan Keyes - 2% (+/-0)
Undecided - 10% (-3)

ABC/Washington Post - National Democratic Primary Poll (May 22)

Al Gore - 62% (-14)
Evan Bayh - 19% (+7)
Gary Hart - 12% (+12)
Undecided - 7% (-3)

ABC/Washington Post - General Election Match-Ups (May 22)

Dick Cheney - 49% (-1)
Al Gore - 45% (-1)
Undecided - 6% (+2)

John Hoeven - 48% (-1)
Al Gore - 45% (+/-0)
Undecided - 7% (+1)

Richard Lugar - 51% (+3)
Al Gore - 42% (-2)
Undecided - 7% (-1)

Al Gore - 47%
Larry Craig - 43%
Undecided - 4%

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What are everyone's thoughts so far on the 2004 race? Who do you guys think will win? Suggestions?

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Gore Filmed Arguing with Anti-Iraq War Protester

The Gore Administration was embroiled in controversy once more last night as video footage leaked by the Drudge Report appeared to show President Al Gore arguing with an anti-Iraq War protester while on his way to attend an economic summit in Boston.

The footage, which the Report claimed to have bought from an anonymous source, appeared to show Secret Service agents escorting President Gore from his limousine to the Saltonstall Building in downtown Boston when a group of protesters emerged, holding picket signs and participating in anti-war chants. As the President and his agents proceeded to move towards the building, one protester walked in front of the door, preventing President Gore from entering the building until the protester was pushed aside by two agents. However, while the Secret Service was trying to convince the President to step into the building and away from the protesters, Gore chose instead to confront the protester who had previously blocked his entry, calling him a "witless imbecile" and a "coward" before being whisked away by Secret Service agents.

The incident was widely reported in the media, with many calling Gore's actions inappropriate or unacceptable. Former Senator Gary Hart, President Gore's main anti-Iraq War rival in his fight to receive the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, was quick to seize upon the President's remarks, saying during a rally in Des Moines that "the only true 'coward' in this race is the man who has chosen to send thousands of young American men and women abroad to die in a war that he started."

Hart's comments were widely recirculated by media outlets, and by late May, it had become clear that President Gore had isolated both the anti-Iraq War and centrist wings of his party.

____________________

NBC/Wall Street Journal - Presidential Approval (May 29)

Approve - 39% (-6)
Disapprove - 50% (+3)
Undecided - 11% (+3)

NBC/Wall Street Journal - Political Alignment Among Republicans (May 29)

Mainstream Republican Party - 46% (-5)
Conservative Traditional Caucus - 39% (+5)
Undecided - 15% (+/-0)

NBC/Wall Street Journal - National Republican Primary Poll (May 29)

Dick Cheney - 27% (-1)
Larry Craig - 24% (+5)
Richard Lugar - 11% (+/-0)
John Hoeven - 8% (-1)
Dirk Kempthorne - 6% (+/-0)
Conrad Burns - 4% (-1)
Frank Murkowski - 3% (-1)
Lamar Alexander - 2% (-1)
Alan Keyes - 2% (+/-0)
Jim Bunning - 2% (-1)
Undecided - 11% (+1)

NBC/Wall Street Journal - National Democratic Primary Poll (May 29)

Al Gore - 57% (-5)
Evan Bayh - 21% (+2)
Gary Hart - 18% (+6)
Undecided - 4% (-3)

NBC/Wall Street Journal - General Election Match-Ups (May 29)

Dick Cheney - 48% (-1)
Al Gore - 46% (+1)
Undecided - 6% (+/-0)

Al Gore - 46 (-1)
Larry Craig - 46% (+3)
Undecided - 8% (-2)

Richard Lugar - 52% (+1)
Al Gore - 42% (+/-0)
Undecided - 6% (-1)

____________________

That night, the President was having dinner with his wife and an old friend in the White House dining room when a staffer walked in. She bent down and whispered something into his ear. President Gore dropped his fork. This couldn't be happening. No. Not to him. This wasn't supposed to be his problem.

[/]

I really do need to get back to this timeline soon. The next post will contain yet another #radicalchange; any guesses on what it might be?

[/]

As Senator Daniel Inouye walked into the Oval Office that dreary Thursday morning, he felt a chill creep down his spine. He always knew that President Gore had a tendency to prefer lower temperatures during his meetings - this was not the first time the two had met in private - but he somehow knew that this was no ordinary chill. No, this was different.

"Mr. President," the Senator muttered, stone-faced. He waved a hand to dismiss his staffers from the room and took a seat on the opposite side of the President's desk.

"Senator Inouye," Gore replied, looking up from the stack of papers in front of him. Gore had not actually been reading the papers - he had, in fact, spent the past two hours concentrating solely on the meeting that was about to occur - but Senator Inouye could not know this.

The Senator cleared his throat. "You know, Mr. President, it doesn't have to come to this. We've offered our list of demands, and we've even removed two provisions your advisers deemed unfriendly."

"I don't need your counsel, Senator Inouye," the President retorted, his expression slowly shifting from shock to anger. "My staff and I have made our decision, and there's nothing you can do to change that. I called this meeting to allow you to compromise with me, not to have to listen to you go on and on about your damned demands, or whatever your lot call them."

"I'm sorry, Mr. President, but that isn't my problem. We've issued our ultimatum, and now it's up to you to determine whether or not you will abide by it. I have nothing more to say."

President Gore watched Senator Inouye stand up from his chair and begin to walk out of the room. He felt like a schoolchild reprimanded by his teacher for misbehaving.

The meeting had lasted only two minutes, but it had felt like two hours. The President had one more week. One more week until it would all be over. One more week until it would all begin.

[/]

BREAKING - Boxer Announces Formation of Anti-Iraq War Caucus; Endorses Hart Over Gore

June 10, 2003

CNN - Another stunning blow was dealt to the Gore Administration this Tuesday as seventeen Democratic members of the United States Senate and twenty-five of their colleagues in the House of Representatives announced the formation of a caucus to oppose President Gore's policies regarding the increasingly unpopular War in Iraq.

Led by Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who gained national attention earlier this year through her role as the lead opponent of the Iraq War Resolution in the Senate, the group is to be known as the Progressive People's Caucus, or PPC. The caucus will be chaired in the House by Representative Martin Sabo of Minnesota, another anti-Iraq War Democrat known for his fierce criticism of the President's foreign policy.

While rumors of increased tensions between the President and anti-IWR Democrats in Congress had been slowly spreading around Capitol Hill for nearly two weeks now according to an inside source, the formation of the caucus was only officially announced earlier this morning, when Senator Boxer and Representative Sabo participated in a joint press conference outside the latter's office in Washington. Leaving no doubt regarding the intentions of her group, Senator Boxer immediately called out Gore for "ineffective and destructive leadership that has set our nation up for utter failure on the international playing field," promising to "end the caustic war in Iraq as soon as possible and bring the sons and daughters of our nation away from harm and back to their families."

Perhaps even more shocking, however, was Senator Boxer's announcement that she would give her endorsement in the upcoming Democratic presidential primary to Gary Hart instead of her party's incumbent. In a fierce rebuke of the Gore Administration, Boxer emphasized the need for "competent and independent leadership in these times of great trouble for the people of our nation," calling former Senator Hart "a selfless yet courageous leader who has exemplified his ability to take our country in a positive direction throughout his many years in the United States Senate." Boxer was joined in her endorsement of Hart by a number of the members of her newly formed caucus, while others - including Representative Sabo - decided to withhold their endorsement until a later time.

____________________

CNN/USA Today/Gallup - Presidential Approval (June 10)

Approve - 36% (-3)
Disapprove - 52% (+2)
Undecided - 12% (+1)

CNN/USA Today/Gallup - Political Alignment Among Republicans (June 10)

Conservative Traditional Caucus - 44% (+5)
Mainstream Republican Party - 43% (-3)
Undecided - 13% (-2)

CNN/USA Today/Gallup - National Republican Primary Poll (June 10)

Larry Craig - 27% (+3)
Dick Cheney - 26% (-1)
Richard Lugar - 9% (-2)
John Hoeven - 7% (-1)
Dirk Kempthorne - 7% (+1)
Frank Murkowski - 4% (+1)
Conrad Burns - 4% (+/-0)
Lamar Alexander - 2% (+/-0)
Jim Bunning - 2% (+/-0)
Alan Keyes - 1% (-1)
Undecided - 11% (+/-0)

CNN/USA Today/Gallup - National Democratic Primary Poll (June 10)

Al Gore - 49% (-8)
Gary Hart - 26% (+8)
Evan Bayh - 19% (-2)
Undecided - 6% (+2)

CNN/USA Today/Gallup - General Election Match-Ups (June 10)

Dick Cheney - 48% (+/-0)
Al Gore - 43% (-3)
Undecided - 9% (+3)

Larry Craig - 47% (+1)
Al Gore - 45 (-1)
Undecided - 8% (+/-0)

Dick Cheney - 48%
Gary Hart - 44%
Undecided - 8%

Gary Hart - 46%
Larry Craig - 45%
Undecided - 9%

Evan Bayh - 46%
Dick Cheney - 46%
Undecided - 8%

Evan Bayh - 47%
Larry Craig - 43%
Undecided - 10%