What will be the Next Big 3 Swing States? (user search)
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  What will be the Next Big 3 Swing States? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What will be the Next Big 3 Swing States?  (Read 5203 times)
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
« on: May 31, 2015, 07:57:25 AM »

Try 2014; where Kasich won. Portman won too.


State Dems did bad out of Mi; WI and IL

The Republicans only did good in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in 2014 because it was 2014.
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2015, 08:22:39 AM »

Silly gooses! As 2016 approaches, the nation will probably start trending left again, most likely due to changes in demographics, the Democrats' ability to attract young voters, and the general swing every election (2014 was red, 2012 was blue, 2010 was red, 2008 was blue, etc.)

I doubt the GOP will ever have that much of a chance in Pennsylvania (minority population growth in the big cities & a lack of elastic voters help the Democrats)... Nevada and New Hampshire will also probably become safe for the Democrats soon as well. I also see VA and OH currently trending left, though this will take much longer and the Republicans still have a chance in these two states (as well as FL, obviously). Considering Colorado is a poor fit for Hillary and there are a lot of urban voters there, CO will probably remain a swing state for the time being.

Meanwhile, I can see Georgia and Arizona become swing states due to changes in demographics, and NC will probably retain its swing state status as time goes by. MO and NE-02 are also potentially competitive.

So here we go:

State Trends in 2012/2016/2020 -



Top Three Swing States - FL, OH, NC

State Trends in 2024/2028 -



Top Three Swing States - NC, GA, FL
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2015, 03:21:06 PM »

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.




Then what states do you think will trend Republican to counteract this forum's alleged truths that VA will soon become safe D, NC will be a tossup soon, GA will soon be competitive, etc.?  The Democrats aren't just going to start winning every election...

Yes we are.
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