Mississippi Megathread 2.0

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Probably time for a new thread, old thread is centered mostly around 2015 discussion.

State Rep. Toby Barker (R-Hattiesburg) announced his run for mayor of Hattiesburg today. If he wins, it'll trigger a special election in HD102. Tough to get an exact estimate on how this district voted in November (split precincts), but after looking at the SOS site, I'd say Clinton won something like 53-42-5. The current makeup of the House is 74R-48D, so the GOP supermajority would be on the line in a hypothetical special election.

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Could you realistically handicap Barker's chances in the Mayor's race?  Do you think he stands a decent chance?  Local politics is still very Democratic in Hattiesburg IIRC

It'll be real interesting.

As most MS political observers know, Dave Ware came real close in 2013 to beating DuPree but fell about 100 votes short after two elections and a court battle. DuPree received no opposition in 2009, in 2005 he had a GOP opponent but she ran a joke campaign and lost pretty badly (60-39-1).

Looking at the precinct reports, Ware seems to have gotten something like 10-15% of the black vote. Barker needs to run up massive margins in the majority-white precincts (Thames, Kamper Park, Camp, USM Golf Course, Timberton) and get something like 20% of the vote in the heavily-black precincts (Rowan, Train Depot, Dixie Pine Central, Grace Christian) which I think he can do. He won 70%+ of the vote in 2015 in his legislative race and like I said earlier, Clinton won this district by 10 % points in 2016. So there is/was some crossover, mostly white liberals but some black voters as well.

In a potential special election, I still think the GOP would be favored even though this is a Obama/Clinton district, but it wouldn't be a sure thing. There are no real obvious candidates for either party, but I think a handful of people would have a go at it.

TLDR: I think he has a shot at knocking off DuPree, right now I'd put it at 50/50, but that could change as the campaign starts heating up. Usually in these type of elections, it's about turnout with few swing voters. This applies for the most part in Barker/DuPree, but I think college-educated black voters might be the key demographic in this race that could sway the election one way or another.

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FWIW, Thad Cochran got 20-25% in Hattiesburg heavily-black precincts in 2014. Different election, sure, but shows that the right Republican can get about a quarter of the black vote.

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In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

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In a majority black city, this guy is running a website that does not feature a single African-American person? There's something to talk about here.

First off, there is a photo of him speaking with a black woman on the "Our Moment" section. The other two header photos are just pictures of him and some donors at a fundraiser from earlier campaigns. Not much to read into.

His campaign manager is a black woman. He's one of the very few Republicans in the Legislature that supports changing the state flag. Yeah, he's a virulent racist (sarcasm). Come on.

This was his announcement vid FWIW: https://vimeo.com/199163832?ref=tw-share

Looking at his ACU ratings - pragmatic conservative. Probably - more Cochran-style then McDaniel-style

Yes. He endorsed Kasich in 2016 and Huntsman in 2012. Was the only Republican to vote against HB1523/LGBT bill on the first passage (two others joined on the second passage). Also voted against the massive tax cut last session.

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Frank Corder is a total hack, but I just stumbled upon this article. He seems to think Hood will not run 2019.

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/45674/

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If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

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I'm not trying to sound rude when I ask this, but how is Mississippi already not run into the ground? They're dead last in educational attainment levels across the board, and their GDP per capita is downright pitiful. You would think that'd give someone like Hood an opening to run a "Democratic version of Trump" campaign under a "what the hell do you have to lose" type theme.

Would have to have some Louisiana or Kansas type fiscal disaster or something.

Like DT said, the MS Dem party is a joke. Bobby Moak (state chair) is a clown. I think Hood could win if he ran, but he'd have to overcome basically the entire Mississippi political establishment and the incompetence of his state party to win. If Hood's a no-go, I'd see if you can get Brandon Presley from the PSC to give it a shot. But Presley has very little name recognition outside of North Mississippi, which would be trouble.

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If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

Nevertheless Eaves got better percentage then DuPree... And against incumbent...

Yeah I would rate Eaves as more serious challenger than DuPree or Gray.

There certainly isn't a Democratic bench in the state, and you're never going to convince a Nick Bain or Jason Shelton or Connie Moran to run for governor if there's a chance they might lose the primary to a truck driver.

MS Dems are a (sad) joke.  Republicans will have to run our state into the ground until they have a more snowball's chance in hell of occupying either end of Congress Street.

Right on Eaves. But he was never going to win. He actually did run pretty well in the NE part of the state and in some other heavily-white rural counties. Very socially conservative platform.

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Can't forget this!

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/football/2017/01/18/bill-introduced-establish-ncaa-investigation-time-frames/96744132/

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Is there anywhere I can find a map of the MS state house? How many White conservadems are still around and kicking?

Can't find a map, but Michael Evans, Nick Bain, and Tom Miles are the three big conservadems in the House. In the Senate, you have Bob Dearing and JP Wilemon.

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Well, i tried to look at NE corner of Mississippi (arbitrary taking 4 counties: Alcorn, Itawamba. Prentiss and Tishomingo: all mostly white , with Blacks comprising from 3 to 14% of county population) and compared percentages of last 4 Democratic gubernatorial candidates + Hood (last election) and Presley (the same). What i got?

Musgrove (2003): 59.97, 43.81, 49.74, 42.29
Eaves (2007): 40.79, 47.34, 52.01, 46.55
DuPree (2011): 27.47, 22.3, 29.64, 24.58
Gray (2015): 15.58, 12.05, 19.45, 17.28
Hood (2015): 50.65, 54.1, 54.31, 48.4
Presley (2015): 54.79, 71.6, 69.79, 64.21

Big difference, isn't it? A "white conservative populists" (moderate to moderate-conservative on economy, solid conservative on social issues) faring from moderately good to very good, blacks - well, not so much (to be a minimally politically correct)))). Why?)))))

And one additional question: what sense does it make for people like Nick Bain (conservative populist of the above mentioned type from Alcorn county) to stay Democrat? In a statewide race "D" after name is more likely to be minus, not plus, with voting records like Bain's such people are acceptable for Mississippi Republican party (most of Mississippi's conservative Democrats had rather successfull career after switching, except those who were initially elected from minority heavy (35% or more) districts), as Democrats they are in perpetual minority in Legislature, and even in their caucus (usually - Black dominated and substantially more liberal) they are a minority. In fact - that reasoning applies to almost all remaining right-of-center Democratic legislators from the South. Bain's neighbor (Jodi Steverson) with similar voting record already switched, BTW))))). It's easy to understand why Deborah Dawkins (white, but solid liberal) is a Democrat, but these???

Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

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Bain might switch if Barker vacates his House seat and a Democrat replaces him. In this case, the GOP would remain at a 74R-48D supermajority. 2015 election Republicans finished with a 73R-49D advantage but Stevenson switched and got them to the magic number (74).

Well, as i see from Barker's electoral statistics, he never won an election with less then 62.5% of vote. So, i see little chances of it going Democratic in low-turnout special....

Not an exact number (split precincts), but Clinton won this district something like 53-42-5. Barker has crossover appeal with white liberals (i.e. college faculty/staff, grad students, millennials, etc) and some blacks.

I still think the Republican would be favored, but a Democrat would at least have a chance (25-30% or so).