Poland election - October 25 2015

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Voting ends at 9pm

Those old reich borders still appear somewhat visible...

At 17 rather I would say rather Weimar borders

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Voting ends at 9pm

Any hotel room rates?

You mean exit poll leaks or internal party exit polls?
As for the 17 it was according to guy from Twitter who is good at this "game":

PiS 41
PO 23,6
Cookies 8,6 
KORWiN 4,8
Zlew 6,6
PSL 5,3
Razem 3,6
.Nowoczesna 6,7

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

2 x yes, but we need to wait a little bit for exit polls and few days (...) for final results.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Formally PiS was taking part in those elections in alliance with few smaller parties and maybe they will get something in the government. Before the elections PiS politicians said that Jarosław Gowin will be Minister of Defence, but time will show. But formally

If PiS gets a majority, is this not the first majority ever in modern Polish Sejm elections ?

this will be right.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Saw it before exit polls. I wonder if when KORWiN will enter the parliament PiS then will lose it majority.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What happen to TR/Palikot?  They ran as part of ZL this time, right? How did Palikot and SLD go from over 18% of the vote combined in 2011 to less than 7%?  I assume most of their votes went to K'15, especially those that vote for Palikot in 2011?

According to the exit polls 25,2% of votes for Palikot from 2011 went fot Kukiz'15, 15,7 proc. went for KORWiN, 12,9% for Razem, and 12,1% for .Nowoczesna. As for the SLD 9,4% of voters went for PO, 7,8% for PiS, 5,5 for Razem, 5,4 for Kukiza, 4,2% for PSL and 4,1 for .Nowoczesna.

There will be late poll after 1:00. There will be 6 or 7 parties? Who knows?

Saw it before exit polls. I wonder if when KORWiN will enter the parliament PiS then will lose it majority.

What would be the most likely government then? PiS minority with outside support from Kukiz? I assume Korwin would prefer to be in opposition if possible.

Maybe they will be able to "steal" few MP's from Kukiz, but in his committee there were a lot of economic liberals and they will probably demand a lot from PiS as for the economic policy. Negotiations will be long and hard probably. If any. As for now it is hard to tell because Kukiz committee is very diversified and they might not survive as one parliamentary club long.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Late poll

38,0 PiS
23,4 PO
9,1 Kukiz
7,2 N
7,0 ZL
5,7 PSL
4,9 Korwin
3,9 Razem

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ugh Poland is going to turn into Hungary.

That would be nice but I doubt it.

I guess the votes are going to be counted today ?
Btw, what was final turnout like ?

Haha, dreamer. Tuesday.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Twitter says so I think that it might be unfortunatelly true. Even if not current leader and former leader of PSL will be out.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

If PSL goes out, then they'll die or can they hope for ressurection in a FDP mode? And left? Will they try to join PO, or be lead by Razem people.

To early to say but: PSL will probably will not die out as they have a lot of local power still in voivodships and powiats. As for the SLD probably they will try to survive alone and probably resign from any coalitions. Minor coalition members like TR or Greens will probably die or some stronger parties will vassalize them. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PPP was a little bit too late in the coalition and they didn't get much. Also as you can see 7% voted on Razem. I think that their electorate voted on PiS like a lot of people - because they wanted PO to begone. And on PO as they wanted to stop PiS. Small parties who do not participate often in elections doesn't have so much "iron electorate". Other thing that PPP actually wasn't very active in campaigning for ZLew. Notice that only 16% of Palikot electorate from 2011 was voting on ZLew. They were not that attractive but they are some small chances that they will get that 8%. Small but still.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ok, actually there are bigger than small chances that ZLew will enter. Based on local media news partial results gives them 7.78% and there are no still results from Podlasie and Bydgoszcz where SLD is usually strong. But as for now nothing is sure.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Isn't PiS pretty left wing on economics? They have embraced economic interventionism and the president of Poland (from PiS) has said that he wanted to lower the retirement age to 60. Doesn't really sound that right wing imo. Perhaps the Palikot movement was perceived as left wing because it's pretty socially progressive (and vocal in that).

In theory PiS is rather etatist and pro-welfare but in practice they might try to go middle way. It depends on who will become Minister of Finance and Minister of Economy. They also usually tend to try appease small and medium enterprises so there might be a lot of "pro-entrepreneurial" acts.

Here in the Netherlands a lot of people think D66 is a left wing party and it is featured in a lot of possible left wing coalitions while it actually is pretty right wing on the economics (for Dutch standards), but because it is socially progressive people automatically think it is a left wing party (progressive vs conservative).

Palikot were highlighting rather social aspects, while economic was rather on the background (although also present) so it was pretty obvious that for people he will be perceived as left-wing. And for me he is centre-left politician.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

23/41 districts and ZLew 7.97 :S

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/351_Wyniki_Senat

Senat elections results updated.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Do you have a link to the updated count for the main event?

I assume they count the Senate votes today and the Sejm vote tomorrow ...

As for now we are waiting for the Warsaw and UK. UK have some massive delays.

If PSL goes out, then they'll die or can they hope for ressurection in a FDP mode? And left? Will they try to join PO, or be lead by Razem people.

To early to say but: PSL will probably will not die out as they have a lot of local power still in voivodships and powiats. As for the SLD probably they will try to survive alone and probably resign from any coalitions. Minor coalition members like TR or Greens will probably die or some stronger parties will vassalize them. 

The question is whether Miller and his cronies will survive.

Remember that they still have 18 members in voivodship sejmik's, few town mayors, 5 MEPs and handful of minor local authorities bodies members.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

UK rather Kukiz/KORWiN
Warsaw rather PO/.nowoczesna/PiS.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is there a rundown of parties somewhere in this thread?

Law and Justice (hick conservative)
Civic Platform (respectable middle class conservative)
United Left (former communist/generic social democrat)
Polish Peasants Party (farmers party, pro-Civic Platform)
Kukiz 15 (Vague anti-establishment sentiment/secretly far right)
Korwin (personalist party of a senile libertarian turned Putin lover)
.Modern (free market liberal and very secularist)
Razem/Together (social democrats but not Horrible People like the United Left)

Just to add:
Civic Platform electorate is not conservative but some politicians of PO are. But real conservative wing inside PO was killed few years ago. Currently is rather technocratic party of power/governance.

And you know, for Korwin voters PO is left wing, PiS is left wing and Razem are communists

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

UK rather Kukiz/KORWiN

Huh. They'd be voting against their own interests by choosing Euroskeptic parties. And one would think living in the UK (where they overwhelmingly support Labour) would've made them more leftist.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Both PO and PiS are higher than the national average? So then minor parties don't get much support there?

Presidental:


Europarliamentary:

(Nowa Prawica is former Korwin party)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Full final results will be today

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS 37,58%
PO 24,09%
Razem 3,62%
Korwin 4,76%
PSL 5,13%
ZLew 7,55%
Kukiz 8,81%
Nowoczesna 7,6%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Senate has other electoral system.
http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/351_Wyniki_Senat
There are 91/100 seats already posted by PKW. And as I can see on the map they are updading remaining 9.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Me and politicus should say sorry to they polls in Poland:

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/349_Wyniki_Sejm

Results in Polish there but website is pretty simple to browse.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So 16.21% of voters, or 2,463,181 of them, were disenfranchised by the threshold. If the 459 contested seats were allocated proportionately without any thresholds the results would've been very different:

Seats|Party
--------------------------
 174|Law and Justice
 112|Civic Platform
  41|Kukiz
  35|Modern
  35|United Left
  23|Polish People's Party
  22|Korwin
  16|Together
   1|Zbigniew Stonoga (right-wing perennial candidate)
   1|German Minority

PiS would need either a grand or three-party coalition to have a majority in the Sejm. PiS + Kukiz + PSL (238 seats) would be pretty much the only plausible government, and would probably be quite a bit more inclined towards preserving status quo than the real-life PiS majority is going to be, if for no other reason than that it's hard to forge consensus amongst three fairly disparate parties.

Good that we have treshold, because otherwise there would be another elections soon.

Question: Why was Szydlo made PM candidate for PiS and not Kacynski? (I think I spelled those right?)

Presidential campaign for Andrzej Duda was successful. PiS decided to support more moderate person than Kaczyński, and not that strong inside the party and it worked well. So probably they wanted to favour similar approach also in parliamentary elections. Kaczyński will be "grey eminence" so still having most of the power in the party and have great influence on the govt.

With tradition of breaking-aparts in PiS, will this government go full term? And which position Kaczynski will get? Minister or Marshal of Sejm?

As for now most of the potential candidates for the most important ministries are already seriously treated by journalists and there are also some declarations made by the party and Kaczyński as for now probably will become only leader of the party. As for the breaking apart I guess as long as PiS have power such situation will be seldom. PiS in this elections cooperated with few smaller parties which in previous Sejm term like Solidarna Polska (right wing, socially conservative and solidarist) or Polska Razem-Zjednoczona Prawica (petite-bourgeoisie centre-right)  which respectively got as far as I calculate correctly 9, 10 and also 2 for Prawica Rzeczpospolitej (Catholic right-wing) which also have one MEP (Marek Jurek). They have also few senators. But I don't think that they will break away as leader of Polska Razem is already declared semi-officially as Minister of Defence.