Early Voting thread.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans won first day of early vote in Clark by 1,1k. 5,1 to 4,0k.

But that's only in-person. Encouraging sign for Republicans though.

In Washoe that 600 lead for Dems in encouraging for them.

Still early.

MATTROSE94 told us

Mark Kelly, Adam Laxalt, Raphael Warnock, and John Fetterman. Adam Laxalt I have winning by 10% and carrying all counties in Nevada except Washoe, whereas I have John Fetterman winning by only a couple hundred votes.

/s

[MT Treasurer]

I’d keep three things in mind here:

1) As Unelectable Bystander already noted, the partisan divide in terms of voting intensity/preferred voting method (early vs. late, mail vs. election day) has never been as stark and clear-cut as it is today, which makes any comparison with pre-2020 elections very problematic. I’d argue that any place where Democrats overwhelmed Republicans in early voting in 2020 but where they are lagging (far) behind their 2020 strength this year is a very ominous sign for them given what we know are the respective voting preferences of the two party bases.

2) I’m very interested to see if the disparity between D performance in Washoe and Clark continues (you could argue that it is in line with this year's special election results). If Democrats do relatively well in the former while seriously underperforming in the latter, it might suggest that their liberal white base is far more reliable/solid than their non-white/non-Anglo base, and that’s obviously game over in NV given how much more important Clark is.

3) Given that independents are almost certainly more R-leaning than in 2020, it’s not enough for Democrats to just hit their 2020 %-s. (This is why even the Washoe numbers don’t mean that Democrats are actually in a 50/50 position to win the county.)

Also, obligatory reminder that Democrats have absolutely no room for error in this state.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

I stopped reading at MSNBC.

That's OK.  I stopped reading at 'Forumlurker'.

If you had stopped reading at 'Forumlurker,' you wouldn’t have been able to post this response.

[MT Treasurer]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

Big thank you to Steve Sisolak for mailing ballots to low-propensity Trumpists!

VOY A VOTAR

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously Republicans weren’t going lead in the early vote unless you expected them to win by 15+ points, so I’m not sure what’s causing the confusion right now. I’m also not sure who exactly expected CCM to be "doomed going into election day" based on the early vote — even I expect Laxalt to win by absolutely crushing it on election day and not by leading in the early vote. People here realize that you can count the number of states in which Trump won the early vote in 2020 on one hand, right?

The bottom line is that there is no way of knowing what the actual Democratic raw vote advantage (Cortez Masto over Laxalt, Sisolak over Lombardo, etc.) in early vote is given that no one in this thread has an answer to the following questions:

1) How are independents breaking?
2) How many defections are there on the Democratic side?

Cortez Masto and Sisolak leading by 40k over Republicans in the early vote doesn’t mean much if they’re losing independents by 20k — this still means they’re finished on election day.