Impact Research (Ryan Internal) - Ohio Senate - Ryan +2

[MT Treasurer]

Almost like ditching appeals to swing & suburban voters in favor of hard-line messaging tailored to a very narrow base of voters (one that has been overrepresented in political punditry since 2016 and was already trending your way) done by absolutely atrocious candidates who have no experience running for public office and no skill in reinventing themselves, crafting/reinforcing a broad message, and staying on message is going to result in predictable underperformances.

People have this weird and absolutely laughable idea that only 'Trumpist' candidates will do well in the Midwest when there’s already a multitude of high-profile races in this particular state serving as counterexamples (most notably OH-SEN 2010 & 2016 and OH-GOV 2014). Any halfway competent 'traditional' Republican would have done even better than Trump in the Midwest in 2016/2020, and any halfway competent 'traditional' Republican would be doing a lot better than Vance right now.

Stop stereotyping all of OH as Trumbull County.