Rate Virginia

[MT Treasurer]

My prediction is the same as yours.

Lean/Likely D, McAuliffe +4.5, with the county map identical to VA-PRES 2016. Democrats also win AG/LG, obviously.

If it’s a high single-digit margin for McAuliffe/Democrats and Youngkin even loses Virginia Beach and Chesterfield, alarm bells should be going off at the NRSC/NRCC. If Democrats somehow lose or only barely (<2 points) hold VA and underperform Biden substantially in NJ, they can kiss the House and Senate and most of their Trump/Biden-state governorships goodbye.

[MT Treasurer]

My prediction is the same as yours.

Lean/Likely D, McAuliffe +4.5, with the county map identical to VA-PRES 2016. Democrats also win AG/LG, obviously.

Changing this to Lean D, McAuliffe +3, county map remains the same. Not my final prediction, but unless Youngkin can get another poll or two showing him at or above 50%, I’m not convinced that he’s actually ahead.