If we're talking about the difference of Toss-Up and Likely/Safe D, then we're talking about at least several points, which would be more than 100,000 votes. A lot of the registered Republicans who voted for Sinema also voted for Biden, Kelly, and Hobbs, so it's not like these are voters who will exclusively vote for Sinema. And I'm not arguing that left-wingers will vote for a Republican over Sinema, I'm arguing that they might stay home or write someone in. Not many will do, but possibly enough to cost her the election if the race is very close. There are plenty examples of this, most notably the 2016 Presidential Election.
The small number of people who might cross over for Sinema would be offset by the (perhaps not so) small number of Democrats/left-wingers who would not vote for Sinema.
Proof?
If her approval ratings are this abysmal among Democrats, I have a hard time believing there won't be at least a small number who won't stomach voting for her in 2024.
1. Literally no left-winger will stay home in a presidential year. This is a really, really disingenuous take because you know it doesn’t make sense.
2. Remind me how 'depressed' D turnout doomed JBE, Manchin, Golden, etc. and how "small" the number of Republicans/Trump voters who voted for them was? Why did Manchin receive near-unanimous support from left-wingers/Democrats in WV even after he voted for Kavanaugh (only after Collins announced her support for him, of course)?
3. We can debate whether it’s the difference between Likely D and Tossup or Lean D and Tossup (both assuming a neutral year), true, but even the difference between Tossup and Lean D is a significant one in an extremely close Toss-up state like AZ. Nowhere did I estimate "more than 100,000 votes" either — probability does not equal raw vote margin.
4. There is absolutely no evidence that Hillary Clinton lost because "Democrats stayed home." In fact, that election would have never been as close as it was if such a large portion of the D base had "stayed home." You also failed to provide other examples (I really hope you didn’t have 2014 in mind here because someone like Landrieu didn’t lose by 11 points because she wasn’t "liberal enough" or because of "depressed" D base turnout).
I get that most of you hate Sinema and want to see her gone, but not everyone feels like you. Stop assuming that the electorate at large thinks like progressives who constantly demand purity tests or projecting your biases/world view onto the overall/general electorate.
I’m not even saying this as someone who wants Sinema to win the D primary (I think her supposed moderation is 100% performative and would prefer an easier opponent with less/no crossover appeal), but many of you are really letting your obsessive (and largely misguided) hatred of Sinema cloud your judgment.