This would be extremely hilarious after all the abortion bill backlash hype, but it’s almost certainly not going to happen even on a very good night for Republicans, especially with Democrats seriously contesting the race (unlike in 2018). I think most of his crossover appeal is basically gone, so a R+8-10 win is probably more likely than R+>13.
I certainly don’t see him losing, though.
Won’t 2022 be a much more favorable year for republicans compared to 2018 though?
It will, but there are cases where even a substantial change in the national environment isn’t enough to outweigh the host of other, state-specific factors like erosion of the incumbent's crossover appeal, demographic changes and generational turnover, increased partisanship, and long-term changes in both parties' turnout patterns. We would be seeing the same thing in AZ if Ducey were eligible for another term, likely the same thing happening in MD if Hogan could run for another term, and will probably witness the same pattern in MA with Baker and VT with Scott (and certainly NH if Sununu somehow opts for another gubernatorial bid).
