But with Burr not running for reelection, Democrats have a stronger chance of flipping his seat.
As in Ohio, Trump's win here affirmed a lot of people's thinking that Florida is a tough state for Democrats, although Republicans' margins here are smaller. But unlike in the Buckeye State, the GOP incumbent is sticking around.
This is a bit bold, but assuming the national environment shifts R by a few points.
1. Arizona
2. Pennsylvania
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. North Carolina
8. Florida (not flipping)
9. Colorado
10. Ohio
It was a tough call to make Georgia more vulnerable than Wisconsin though.
This is a solid list and pretty much identical to mine. You could make a case for swapping WI and NC (WI would be more likely to flip than NC if the election were held today, but I think it might be slightly less vulnerable by election day, although that’s indeed very debatable). You could also swap PA and NH/NV, but this far out, it’s a great list.
