GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[MT Treasurer]

Why do you only report the R favorable trends, is this a form of cope?

You’re not particularly bright if you saw those two "reports" and considered them "R favorable." Look at the margins.

I’m reporting the counties which are >95% in. Was hard to tell, I know.

[MT Treasurer]

Towns County >95% in (this one is in North GA)

Walker 80%
Warnock 20%

~6,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 81%
Ossoff 19%

~7,200 votes cast back then.

Rabun County >95% in (this one is also in North GA)

Walker 77%
Warnock 23%

~7,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 79%
Ossoff 21%

~8,400 votes cast back then.

Franklin County >95% in (northeastern part of the state)

Walker 87%
Warnock 13%

~8,000 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 85%
Ossoff 15%

~9,200 votes cast back then.

[MT Treasurer]

Not going to post any more updates from the >95% in counties (which happen to be Republican counties, much to the dismay of my friend Forumlurker), but it’s looking like a slight rightward swing from Jan. 2021 and extremely close to the Nov. 2022 margins. Turnout is pretty solid as well. Probably not enough for Walker, but points to a close race unless Walker collapses in the urban & suburban areas.

At least wait for more election day vote before calling it.

[MT Treasurer]

Eyes are on Forsyth.

Wow my timing is great. Forsyth is in. 55% in, 64-36 for Walker.

The needle says Warnock should really like that result.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t really get why? If this is all early vote, Walker could still get very close to the Jan. 2021 result (68% Perdue, 32% Ossoff).

Again, probably not enough, but would point to a very close race.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like Warnock barely flipped Baldwin County in central GA, at least according to NYT, which has >95% of the vote in there (about 13,500 votes cast). Walker won it by half a point in November.

Definitely a good result for Ds.

[MT Treasurer]

Is anyone actually surprised at this result? LOL

No

Rural/small-town areas getting redder, blue areas getting bluer, Republicans underperforming in fast-growing areas (which often happen to be swing districts in the House). Consistent with Nov. 2022 and most Trump-era trends.

[MT Treasurer]

Rockdale County GA (Atlanta metro county) is >95% in. Warnock +51, was Warnock +48 in Nov. 2022 and Ossoff/Warnock +45 in Jan. 2021. Number of votes cast so far: 31,600 (very solid turnout for Warnock).

[MT Treasurer]

DeKalb just came in, Warnock 51-49 statewide now.

I do agree that this can be called for Warnock.

[MT Treasurer]

Warnock can still win, but this narrative that Walker was DOA in a runoff scenario was always BS.

R turnout was very solid given that (a) it’s a runoff and (b) Senate control is already decided. While that is impressive, the real problem for Walker is that he barely persuaded any Warnock/Kemp voters to vote for him in the runoff.

There are states where Republicans running up the margins in rural/declining/stagnant/small-town areas is enough for them to win (MT/WV, for instance — I don’t think those 2024 Senate races got any less tough for Democrats than they were before Nov./Dec. 2022), but GA isn’t one of them.

[MT Treasurer]

Not going to post any more updates from the >95% in counties (which happen to be Republican counties, much to the dismay of my friend Forumlurker), but it’s looking like a slight rightward swing from Jan. 2021 and extremely close to the Nov. 2022 margins. Turnout is pretty solid as well. Probably not enough for Walker, but points to a close race unless Walker collapses in the urban & suburban areas.

At least wait for more election day vote before calling it.

You'll never guess what happened next

Still a pretty close race even though Warnock will obviously win, so not sure if this was supposed to be an "own" or whatever. Also note the "Probably not enough for Walker" part.

I will also note that Walker held his own in some of the northern exurbs (Hall, Jackson), not just the rurals.

[MT Treasurer]

'NeverTrump GOP' commentators are really embarrassing themselves as pundits/analysts. Geoff Duncan said on CNN that a stronger Republican would have easily won this race by eight points, as much as Kemp.

Quite obvious that Walker is the least of the GA GOP's problems, as Pollster already alluded to. The closest analogy to this race that I can think of is VA-GOV 2013, and like I said about VA back then (regarding the 2016 presidential race), it’s pretty obvious that the GOP needs a path without AZ/GA for 2024 (NV/WI/PA seems like the most feasible one).

[MT Treasurer]

Forsyth County was more Republican than Glascock County in 2004. Think about that for a moment.

[MT Treasurer]

'NeverTrump GOP' commentators are really embarrassing themselves as pundits/analysts. Geoff Duncan said on CNN that a stronger Republican would have easily won this race by eight points, as much as Kemp.

And to top it off, Michael Steele just remarked on MSNBC that "Georgia is still a red state: look at the map!"

[MT Treasurer]

Would Doug Collins have won

No. For all the flaws Walker had, people forget that Perdue couldn’t even win as an incumbent who was less 'Trumpy' or 'extremist' than Doug Collins, and that was when Senate control was at stake.

I think there is a lot of denial about GA on the Republican side. It’s arguably (pretty close to) gone at the federal level.

[MT Treasurer]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

You sound like a well-paid, high-ranking GOP strategist