more likely to flip than nh (imo)
I could see NH flipping before KY but only if (a) Sununu runs, (b) Sununu's approval rating is at least 70% on election day (he’ll need that to make the case for voting out a strong/popular incumbent + it’s a federal race), (c) he distances himself from Trump and Kim/MTG, and (d) he scores at least 18/20 on my candidate quality evaluation sheet in October 2022.
It’s definitely more likely to flip than AZ and NV, though... I mean,
Andy Biggs? The AZ(Q)OP? These guys wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to ALG, Andy Beshear, and the KY Dems if their life depended on it. CCM? Sandoval is the only one who might make it
competitive against her, and even he would probably lose 50.06%-47.67%.
