Oz is clearly trying to right the ship (and doing a not-horrible job) whereas Mastriano's aides reportedly isolate him from any dissenting opinions - not hard to see why/how Oz performs a few points ahead of him, especially with Senate control on the line.
I agree with this — opinions of Mastriano are considerably more hardened, with little room for growth beyond the base (which he, unlike Oz, has mostly already consolidated). I was obviously critical of Oz as a candidate (while noting that there was a
relatively easy fix to his biggest problems), but credit where credit is due — forcing Fetterman into a corner with the "Either he’s hiding how unfit he is for the office or or he’s afraid to reveal where he stands on the issues" move was pretty smart. I’m not a swing voter, but I’ve warmed up to him over the last few weeks, and I like to think of myself as somewhat adept at the entire "thinking/feeling like a swing voter" thing. I honestly never had that feeling with Vance.
I don’t necessarily expect this to happen, but Oz running the
best Republican comeback campaign of any GOP candidate in the home stretch of this cycle would, by far, be the most amusing plot twist of this election season. FWIW (and I’m sure you agree), I do think there is a certain type of candidate who performs well only under pressure and when trailing in the polls, and this might apply to Oz as well. It was arguably true in Rick Scott's case as well, who came from behind in 2014/2018 but nearly blew a sizable lead in 2010. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this, but you could even argue that it’s easier to campaign when you have to climb out of a hole than when you’re trying to maintain a lead, but I’m sure that depends on the type of person you’re dealing with.
