MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,275
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« on: November 01, 2020, 12:32:34 AM » |
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« edited: November 01, 2020, 01:41:14 AM by Shy #CMacOrBust ‘WWC’ Male for Gov. Parson/Trump »
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I swear, IA, MT, and FL are always among the states that bring out the worst in this forum. No way I’m reading 18 pages (holy fYck) of this, so I’ll just leave this here:
- Huge surprise: Geography, trends, and demographics are in fact more predictive of election results/swings than meaningless buzzwords (‘elasticity’, ‘polarization’). Nate Silver thinks that the state where Republicans couldn’t even win competitive Senate races in two Republican years (NH 2014, NH 2016) is the most ‘elastic’ state in the nation, so maybe, just maybe, his ‘elasticity rankings’ are utter nonsense.
- Biden could (and will) easily win the presidency even if he loses IA by 7 (or a little less than that, which I feel is more likely).
- Biden will still win MN, WI, MI, PA comfortably, but probably by a smaller margin than many polls have shown and people here are expecting. I never bought any of these states voting to the left of the ‘nation as a whole’, but again, there is no comparable urban/suburban base in IA that could erase a 10-point Trump win in that state the same way metropolitan areas/suburban swings/record D turnout/2016 third-party voters breaking for Biden in WI/MI/PA could erase a 1-point R lead in those three states. The age/generational gap is also more pronounced in IA than in almost any other swing state, IIRC, so yeah, I think IA is the closest thing we have to a Democratic equivalent of GA in terms of long-term prospects for the once-dominant party.
- IA was always going to be the hardest ‘battleground’ state for Democrats, and the take that it was more winnable for Democrats than GA, TX, and even FL.... was honestly among the most irrational ones I’ve ever seen on this forum, and that says a lot.
- Even if Ernst wins the Senate race (it’s one poll that was quite off in 2018, but I don’t think calling this race Tilt or even Lean R is absurd), Democrats can easily win the Senate with some combination of GA-R/GA-S/AZ/CO/NC/ME/KS/MT/TX/SC/AK, all of which (with the possible exception of ME) have far more favorable trends for Democrats than IA.
In other words... much ado about nothing from people who refuse to let go of the notion that IA is some completely unpredictable state that doesn’t lean strongly Republican and continues to trend away from Democrats.
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