MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,275
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« on: October 31, 2020, 03:23:58 PM » |
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That Emerson poll notwithstanding, this is what the last ten polls have shown:
PPP (D): 48-47
Progress Campaign (D): 48-48
MSU Billings: 48-47
Siena College: 46-49
Strategies 360/NBC Montana: 47-48
RMG: 47-49
PPP: 48-48
Progress Campaign (D): 48-47
MSU Bozeman: 49-47
Siena College: 44-45
This kind of consensus among pollsters is certainly... interesting, given that polls for the 2018 Senate race were often all over the place.
I do think we will know the winner before early Wednesday morning in the sense that we may not get a call before that time, but enough of the mail-in ballots will be in (they’ll start counting them on Monday in some places)/enough bellwether counties will have reported by then for us to get a good general sense of where the race is headed. I don’t think Daines can win if the race is nip and tuck throughout the night and he doesn’t hold a sizable lead (i.e., at least 5 points or so) before ~75% of the vote has been counted.
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