I think the main problem for the GOP in Vermont is their stance on social issues. Vermonters are largely pro-choice, for example, so a party that advocates for abortion bans is not going to do especially well there. Just because Vermont is very rural and white doesn't mean it's conservative. Even when it was a safe R state it had some of the most liberal Republicans in the country, and still does with Phil Scott. That's not to say it won't trend right, but I don't think the RGV is a very good comparison.
I wasn’t comparing VT to the RGV, I was just pointing out that cultural factors and community influence can help explain 'outliers' such as the pace/extent of the RGV trend, the erratic swing in Miami-Dade (hence the Trump campaign extensively targeting that area through social media), or VT still being so uniformly Democratic.
I don’t think social issues can explain that entire margin, though. NH is just as pro-choice as VT and even many of its rural/small-town areas are noticeably less Democratic than those in VT (and are likely to trend rightward this year), although the most Democratic parts are of course located along the NH/VT border and in the Connecticut River Valley. I’d be particularly interested what it is about the latter that makes that region so Democratic (we’re also seeing this in Western MA).
At the very least, you’d expect many of these towns to vote close
r to demographically similar places in the northern interior region of ME, but it’s not even remotely close.
