Univision/UH: Cornyn +1

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I never bought Cornyn being safe or unbeatable. Gonna be a close race.

[MT Treasurer]

Seriously? Ted Cruz consistently underperforms generic R margins

Nope.

2012:

Romney 57.13%, Obama 41.35% (R+15.78)
Cruz 56.46%, Sadler 40.62% (R+15.84)

2018: Cruz wasn’t the only Republican to win by 3 points that year, and Republicans won the popular vote for House by roughly the same margin as Cruz.

[MT Treasurer]

Nice try, but every statewide Republican onverperformed Cruz in 2016. Every satewide Republican except him won Tarrant County, all but Paxton won Williamson County, all but Paxton/Patrick/Miller won Jefferson and Nueces.

Paxton won by 3.5, Republicans won the popular vote for House by 3.4 (maybe something like 3.7 or 3.8 when you adjust for the uncontested Democratic seats), Cruz won by 2.6. What a dramatic underperformance by Cruz.

[MT Treasurer]

^"The incredibly popular incumbent governor won a non-federal race by 13 against a sacrificial lamb on a night when Republicans held Maryland by 12 points, it’s all because of Cruz and TX isn’t actually trending strongly Democratic!!!!"