Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[MT Treasurer]

Tbf, Walker was tied with Evers with 90% in, IIRC.

[MT Treasurer]

Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50%   538,243
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     50%   537,932

[MT Treasurer]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

[MT Treasurer]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

More like Democrats didn't show up at all there is more like it

Eh, they did well in Driftless and won like 80% of the vote in Madison/Dane Co., which had fairly high D turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

JS has a Neubauer lead at 93%. I don’t remember that...

Not anymore, Hagedorn just took the lead.

[MT Treasurer]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have a R PVI after 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

True, but the major difference between the pre-Trump years and now is that the WI of 2019 is a dead heat even as Democrats have a sizable advantage in the popular vote, which was generally not the case in the past, with the notable exception of 2000, when Gore won it by 0.2% and it was (barely, however) more Republican than the nation overall. It’s not that WI is close per se, it’s the fact that it’s close with Democrats leading by 5+ points nationally that is a sign that WI hasn’t reverted back to its pre-Obama years.

That said, he still needs those numbers to be a little better than 46/52 on election day. A 48/51 split might be enough.

[MT Treasurer]

Favorability ratings of elected officials in new Marquette poll:

Evers: 49/35 (+14)
Baldwin: 44/40 (+4)
RonJon: 40/29 (+11)

Evers approval: 54/34 (+20)

[MT Treasurer]

WI Supreme Court race poll (conducted by Restoration PAC, a partisan pollster): Kelly (R) +7, leading Karofsky (D) 36/29.

https://www.restorationofamerica.com/reelection_index_release

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are very reliant on Waukesha in Supreme Court elections, even more so than in other elections.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are very reliant on Waukesha in Supreme Court elections, even more so than in other elections.

Yeah, Democrats do better in all 4 of the Milwaukee metro counties than liberal Supreme Court candidates. Interesting enough, liberal Supreme Court candidates have tended to do better than Democrats in the Southwest part of the state.

I’ve always thought of Brown as a pretty good bellwether, but I could be wrong.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are very reliant on Waukesha in Supreme Court elections, even more so than in other elections.

Yeah, Democrats do better in all 4 of the Milwaukee metro counties than liberal Supreme Court candidates. Interesting enough, liberal Supreme Court candidates have tended to do better than Democrats in the Southwest part of the state.

I’ve always thought of Brown as a pretty good bellwether, but I could be wrong.

Door county tends to be more bellweather-ish, but nothing about this election is typical in any way. So, who knows what will happen?

P.S. Congrats on your 10,000th post!

Thanks!

I know Brown leans Republican in statewide elections, but doesn’t it lean less Republican in Supreme Court elections since (as Gass already alluded to) coalitions are a little different in general?

And yeah, obviously I wouldn’t read too much into this election for obvious reasons.

[MT Treasurer]

Obligatory special election thread post template:

If [insert my favored candidate here] wins, it’s a harbinger of the environment/likely results/turnout patterns of the 2022 elections; if [insert my favored candidate here] loses, you shouldn’t read too much into it because special elections are almost never reliable indicators of a broader national trend.

[MT Treasurer]

You know how abysmal GOP turnout was in this election? Underly wins comfortably even if you take away Dane and Milwaukee Counties. With this & that county map in mind, this D vs. D election was about as representative of a November regular election electorate as some random non-partisan mayoral election.

[MT Treasurer]

This is one of those elections where the Democratic candidate couldn’t have done anything to lose the race. Prostaciewicz winning easily isn’t surprising, but this is probably the worst decade to be a conservative since the 1960s. We can debate the reasons for that — and I think it goes way beyond abortion — but it’s going to take a transformative figure and a complete transformation of the party (incl. a replacement of its out-of-touch leadership) to change that, among other things.

[MT Treasurer]

The Trump people aren’t going to like hearing this, but this is not about high or low turnout. The record is clear: Trump-aligned/endorsed candidates have been losing races up and down the ballot in high-turnout, average-turnout and low-turnout elections since 2017. There is of course a host of other issues plaguing the party and its GE prospects (with most of them revolving around leadership, fundraising, ground operations, candidate recruitment, and detrimental party coalitions), but the Trump movement as a personality cult isn’t going to win you any election in any competitive, fast-growing state anywhere.

[MT Treasurer]

Also, the biggest misconception/lie about the 2016 election is that Trump was the only Republican who could have won the Rust Belt/Upper Midwest states. This rewriting of history (to which the media contributed in a shameless manner) only exacerbated the devotion to Trump as a political figure and made Republicans double down on their worst elements, missing the forest (Trump's consistently absymal favorability ratings) for the trees (fabricated propaganda about Trump's "unique strengths" as a candidate).

The truth is that Republicans never needed Trump to win the 2016 election. In fact, he was one of the very few Republicans capable of losing it (and nearly did).