2020 Montana Statewide Elections Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

COUNTY PVIs (each county's electoral lean relative to the entire state, NOT margins):

County -- 2016 GOV -- 2017 HOUSE -- 2018 HOUSE -- 2018 SENATE

Beaverhead – R+22 -- R+25 – R+25 -- R+24
Big Horn – D+24 -- D+13 – D+30 -- D+28
Blaine – D+16 -- D+13 – D+24 -- D+29
Broadwater – R+21 -- R+32 – R+37 -- R+35
Carbon – R+10 -- R+7 – R+12 -- R+12
Carter – R+70 -- R+68 – R+67 -- R+67
Cascade – D+6 -- R+1 – D+1 -- D+2
Chouteau – R+8 -- R+19 – R+12 -- R+5
Custer – R+22 -- R+23 – R+25 -- R+20
Daniels – R+41 -- R+45 – R+43 -- R+41
Dawson – R+51 -- R+34 – D+37 -- R+40
Deer Lodge – D+39 -- D+39 –D+36 -- D+36
Fallon – R+51 -- R+60 – R+58 -- R+56
Fergus – R+29 -- R+34 – R+33 - R+32
Flathead – R+19 -- R+13 – R+17 -- R+18
Gallatin – D+11 -- D+19 – D+19 -- D+18
Garfield – R+71 -- R+79 – R+76 -- R+75
Glacier – D+45 -- D+39 – D+50 -- D+49
Golden Valley – R+33 -- R+43 – R+43 -- R+42
Granite – R+14 -- R+21 – R+24 -- R+23
Hill – D+14 -- D+6 – D+12 -- D+17
Jefferson – R+11 -- R+13 – R+16 -- R+14
Judith Basin – R+23 -- R+34 – R+41 -- R+34
Lake – R+2 -- R+2 – D+0 -- R+0
Lewis and Clark – D+19 -- D+15 – D+13 -- D+15
Liberty – R+24 --R+28 – R+32 -- R+26
Lincoln – R+30 -- R+29 – R+36 -- R+38
Madison – R+20 -- R+22 – R+25 -- R+24
McCone – R+55 -- R+52 – R+56 -- R+57
Meagher – R+28 -- R+36 – R+38 -- R+35
Mineral –  R+13 -- R+19 – R+24 --  R+23
Missoula – D+30 -- D+37 – D+35 -- D+41
Musselshell – R+39 -- R+50 – R+50 -- R+52
Park – D+6 -- D+10 – D+5 -- D+4
Petroleum – R+56 -- R+59 – R+63 -- R+64
Phillips – R+58 -- R+53 – R+50 -- R+44
Pondera – R+8 -- R+15 – R+18 -- R+12
Powder River – R+53 -- R+56 – R+58 -- R+60
Powell – R+23 -- R+28 – R+30 -- R+26
Prairie – R+51 -- R+50 – R+47 -- R+45
Ravalli – R+18 -- R+19 – R+22 -- R+23
Richland – R+55 -- R+46 – R+48 -- R+47
Roosevelt – D+10 -- D+11 – D+16 -- D+16
Rosebud – R+21 -- R+16 – R+12 -- R+11
Sanders – R+24 -- R+29 – R+32 -- R+33
Sheridan – R+18 -- R+11 – R+19 -- R+20
Silver Bow – D+40 -- D+40 – D+40 -- D+42
Stillwater – R+30 -- R+37 – R+37 -- R+39
Sweet Grass – R+36 -- R+38 – R+38 -- R+38
Teton – R+14 -- R+19 – R+22 -- R+19
Toole – R+24 -- R+29 – R+36 -- R+34
Treasure – R+30 -- R+35 – R+47 -- R+40
Valley – R+26 – R+29 – R+26 -- R+19
Wheatland – R+19 -- R+31 – R+34 -- R+33
Wibaux – R+48 -- R+55 – R+49 -- R+50
Yellowstone – R+5 -- R+13 – R+7 -- R+7

The 2018 results (especially for Senate) generally work as a good starting point for comparisons to the Bullock vs. Daines race in particular, but more on that later/when the results trickle in.

*bold = relatively ‘static’ and/or ‘reliable’ PVI with few fluctuations/deviations -> good bellwether
*bold and green = battleground and/or populous counties which will quickly tell us where the race is headed. The candidates cannot afford to underperform said county's PVI in their margin of victory here (for Daines, this is especially true of Ravalli, Cascade, and Yellowstone; for Bullock, of Lewis and Clark).

The two counties which will be closest to the statewide result: Lake and Cascade

[MT Treasurer]

MT-GOV: Gianforte’s (R) all but in, Cooney (D) seriously considering

Hardly a surprise, but still pretty good news for Democrats/bad news for Fox.

[MT Treasurer]

How would you rate Cooney v Gianforte or Cooney v Fox out of interest?

Oh sorry, didn’t notice your comment before.

Cooney v Gianforte: Toss-up. Gianforte is clearly a very polarizing candidate who has little margin for error in his gubernatorial campaign, but he also has some experience navigating competitive races, and in a state like Montana that does count for something. Needless to say, he also has the money needed to mount a serious campaign. Sure, his wins weren’t exactly overwhelming, but a win is a win is a win, and 2017 and 2018 weren’t great years to be a Republican candidate for Congress either. Cooney’s been in MT politics since 1976 (his entire family has a long history in the state), with some very mixed results the last few times he stood for statewide office. His last gubernatorial run in 2000 did not go over very well, to say the least, but his first statewide victory in the 1988 Secretary of State's race was considered somewhat of a surprise, and he went on to win reelection by a landslide in 1992 and 1996. Cooney’s not the most charismatic and energic candidate; however, he’s pretty much the embodiment of the MTDP establishment and the kind of behind-the-scenes guy who knows his state well, so I’d be somewhat surprised if he didn’t put up a good fight even in defeat. Expect a very close race here, regardless of who wins. I can see why people might rate this match-up Tilt D, but I think it’s a little too early to tilt it one way or another.

Cooney v Fox: Tilt R, maybe close to Lean R. Fox definitely fits the state's political culture better than Gianforte, but like I said in the other thread, Democrats didn’t even try to win MT-AG 2016, so his margin of victory―while still impressive―was obviously inflated. We’ll see if he can maintain his carefully-crafted "compassionate conservative" image the state loves so much. He’s taken some inconsistent political positions in the past, most notable of course is his total reversal on Obamacare, and sometimes seems to really try to have it both ways in the sense of simultaneously attempting to appeal to Republican primary voters and the general electorate, which isn’t going to work as well in a high-profile race like governor. Gianforte's entry into the governor's race clearly must have put at least some pressure on him to move to the right (he’s sounding more and more like Russ Fagg/Donald Trump on immigration), and he’s already started going negative on Gianforte, so it’s not surprising that some Republicans fear a 2018 redux, with a divisive primary hurting the eventual Republican nominee. That said, I think his popularity would make him a slight favorite in a general election, but he’s beatable if Democrats play their cards right. I actually think Fox would have (very narrowly) lost to Bullock in 2016, but he’ll definitely have a good chance of winning an open seat in 2020.  

These are very early observations, and a lot can and will change between now and November 2020. Of course many people have already crowned Fox 25th Governor of Montana, but we all know that early conventional wisdom can be hilariously inaccurate. No candidate running for statewide office or Congress in Montana in 2020 is "inevitable."

[MT Treasurer]

Anyway, this definitely needs an update:

- Stapleton (R) has switched from the governor's race to MT-AL.
- Rosendale (R) is also running for MT-AL, this one’s less of a surprise than Stapleton's decision. This means we’ll have an open race for State Auditor.
- Democrats have their first declared candidates for MT-GOV: Minority Leader of the House of Representatives Casey Schreiner (D-Great Falls) and former State Representative Reilly Neill (D-Livingston).
- Another Republican has entered the Attorney General race: Former Republican House Speaker Austin Knudsen (R-Culbertson), who’s not really from the Fox/Bennion faction of the party and more of a Gianforte guy.
- Bryce Bennett (D-Missoula) is in for Secretary of State.
- State Public Service Commission Chairman Brad Johnson (R-Helena) is considering a run for Secretary of State.
- State Superintendent Elise Arntzen (R) has announced that she will seek reelection in 2020.
- Most Republicans aren’t buying that Bullock isn’t going to change his mind about not running for Senate against Daines; unsurprisingly, Republican-affiliated groups have already started airing attack ads against him.

A lot going on right now.

[MT Treasurer]

Cooney announced his candidacy for GOV today. Shane Morigeau (Democratic State Rep. from Missoula) and Troy Downing (R candidate for Senate in 2018) have entered the Auditor's race.

[MT Treasurer]

Another shrill corporatist capitalist neoliberal elitist (Whitney Williams) testing the waters for a run for governor:

Williams, a Missoula-based consultant and the daughter of former Montana Congressman Pat Williams and former state Sen. Carol Williams, confirmed Tuesday that she's considering running for governor but hasn't made a decision. [...]

MTN obtained an audio copy of the telephone poll conducted in early August, that asked questions primarily about Williams and Gianforte. [...]

The poll also tested pro- and anti- messages directed at both Williams and Gianforte, and asked those polled how the messages might affect their support.

For example, Williams was described positively as “a businesswoman and a capitalist who believes strongly in the ability of the private sector to solve problems,” and who wants to help bring development to rural Montana.

But the poll also asked voters whether they would be “troubled” by Williams’ past work and association with Hillary Clinton, and if they heard that she was “a promoter and lobbyist for the rich and famous.”

https://www.kxlh.com/news/montana-news/more-candidates-eyeballing-statewide-montana-races-for-2020

[MT Treasurer]

^So Williams (Whitney, not Kathleen -- no relation) has in fact entered the governor's race, which should make the Democratic primary more competitive and the election season much more neoliberal/shrill + hilarious if both Kathleen Williams and Whitney Williams end up winning their respective primaries.

Does anyone else think she really bears a resemblance to Gretchen Whitmer, particularly in her announcement video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zevaH0CC1DI

At least she explicitly refused to wear a pinstripe suit and a power tie, but does it really matter?

Anyway, a lot of #dynastypolitics going on with Cooney and Williams both running for GOV.

[MT Treasurer]

Who do you think is more likely to win the Democratic primary? It seems like Gianforte might be favored on the Republican side by this point, since he got more than double what Fox got in terms of fundraising.

Cooney definitely has more going in his favor than Williams—higher name recognition (although the Williams family name definitely helps), fundraising (however, I’m less sure about this because of Williams' own personal wealth), his perceived electability among most Democrats, a very long history in the state with all its ensuing connections, and his close ties to the MDP apparatus. That said, he certainly can’t afford to sleepwalk through the campaign, especially since being more negative and "outspoken" probably counts more these days than whenever Cooney was last on the ballot.

I know we shouldn’t underestimate certain candidates, but nominating Williams would be a surefire way for Democrats to finally end the state's Democratic gubernatorial streak. Pretty sure Williams v Gianforte would be Lean R, and that might even be a little too generous to Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are getting back to running ads against Bullock.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are getting back to running ads against Bullock.

Why? Do they think he’s actually going to jump into the senate race?

It’s more of a better safe than sorry approach and a little foretaste of what awaits him if he has a change of heart.

[MT Treasurer]

Fundraising numbers in, folks!

candidate – amount raised during the past three months – total

Mike Cooney (D) – $200,000 – $450,000
Whitney Williams (D) – $439,000 – $439,000  
Casey Schreiner (D) – $15,000 – $85,000

Greg Gianforte (R) – $345,000 – $1.44 million
Tim Fox (R) – $106,000 – $566,000

Money remaining in campaign account:

Gianforte $779,000
Williams $253,000
Fox $199,000
Cooney $180,000

[MT Treasurer]

It’s very reassuring that Steve Bullock's top policy adviser and lawyer Jim Molloy is encouraging Republicans to vote for Tim Fox in the primary.

I grew up in a Montana in which Republicans and Democrats looked for common ground. Unfortunately, politics in our nation and our state have become divisive, with too many of our elected officials viewing members of the other party as enemies to be defeated, not colleagues to work with.[...]

If you are a Republican and you believe that our elected officials should work together, not against one another, your choice should be Tim Fox. He is a good person, even if he and I do not share all the same political views.

https://helenair.com/opinion/letters/republicans-should-support-tim-fox/article_b59d1f32-2270-536e-8885-beaf3beb8a54.html

Also, in case you missed it, Cooney and Williams are the only two Democrats left in the governor's race after Casey Schreiner and Reilly Neill both dropped out of the race this year. Latest fundraising numbers:

Candidate: Raised / Spent / COH in 2020

Cooney: $451,000 / $273,000 / $178,500
Williams: $439,000 / $186,000 / $253,000

80% of Cooney's donations have come from Montana donors, but it’s only 25% in the case of Williams.

[MT Treasurer]

Interesting takes.

I think Cooney has a good chance. I wish Bullock would pull the trigger and make the Senate race interesting.

Kathleen Williams does not excite me. Her vanilla, consultant driven campaigns are boring and lame. Tom Winter needs a wife before he will break through with Montana voters haha (it's a thing here, it's his number one googled search as he pointed out on twitter today).

I hope Fox beats Gianforte. The body slammer needs to just go away already and stop embarrassing the state.

Thoughts on the D primary for governor? I feel like Cooney (and Gianforte) would win by a high single digit margin if the election were held today, but it’s still relatively early.

[MT Treasurer]

^He’s either a troll or bot, so I wouldn’t bother responding to him.

But yeah, as a Republican you couldn’t design a better Democratic opponent in Williams if you tried (she’s literally the caricature of the kind of Democrat that doesn’t play well anywhere in the state except maybe Bozeman and some more affluent legislative districts in Missoula and Helena which swung Democratic in 2016). It honestly baffles me that any Democrat would even consider supporting her in the primary, and while I could see myself supporting Cooney in the general under certain circumstances (he’s way too rabidly pro-choice for me and obviously a pretty partisan Dem in general, but I think he’d make a better governor than Bullock and there’s zero chance he’d run for Senate in 2026/2030, so yeah), I’d never even entertain voting for Williams.

Cooney being more #populist and less shrill/neoliberal makes him a better general election candidate for Montana even without Williams' baggage/background. I agree with your all-nighter prediction for Cooney vs. Gianforte, but I have Gianforte coming out on top by <2 points. For president my prediction is Trump +13-15, for Senate Daines +8-16 (there’s still quite some uncertainty in the Senate race as far as the margin is concerned, but in terms of competitiveness, the ship has probably sailed for Democrats).

[MT Treasurer]

lmao

https://twitter.com/WhitneyforMT/status/1233063112007278593

[MT Treasurer]

STOP THE COUNT

Whitney Williams     47    68.1%    
Mike Cooney      22       31.9%

[MT Treasurer]

With 66% in, Cooney is leading in Yellowstone County 52.5% to 47.5%. Could be a long night, especially when Missoula comes in.

[MT Treasurer]

Roosevelt County currently tied in MT-GOV (D) and (!) MT-GOV (R).

[MT Treasurer]

Big new vote dump, Williams narrowly ahead in Missoula but Cooney massacred her in Lewis and Clark.

Well, Cooney lives in Helena and has represented the area for decades. It’s his base where he really needed to run up the score.

Williams needs to win Missoula by more than just 5 points.

[MT Treasurer]

Gallatin? Probably Williams if I had to guess.

Also, where’s HeirofCamelot? Gianforte is beating both Olszewski and Fox (who’s in third place) in Flathead (Olszewski's home turf, which he even carried in the 2018 R primary) despite all those non-existent Gianforte yard signs and foxy Fox retail politics.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like MT-AG is going to be Knudsen (R) vs. Graybill (D), i.e. the Democrats' best-case scenario.
 
Scott Sales is getting embarrassed in MT-SoS lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh and Gianforte defeated Foxx on the GOP side.

Not a surprise, but the margin arguably is. His chief deputy Bennion is losing badly as well, so really not a good night for Team Fox.

Ain’t Marc Racicot's GOP anymore.

[MT Treasurer]

Who would you say is favored in the dem primary right now?

Definitely Cooney. She’s not getting the margins she needs out of her strongest counties, and as long as they split Missoula/Billings/Bozeman and Cooney dominates in Helena/Great Falls and wins most of the rural areas, he will be fine.

Probably 54% Cooney, 46% Williams if I had to guess.

[MT Treasurer]

Your preliminary rating of MT-GOV Cooney vs Gianforte is Tilt D I would guess?

It’s going to be a really close one. I don’t feel comfortable tilting it one way or another, it’s a pure Tossup (and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate Gianforte; he’s not a "weaker candidate" than Daines).

[MT Treasurer]

MT-SoS is really close right now.

Christi Jacobsen 37,824   30%
Scott Sales   31,929   26%
Brad Johnson    29,311   23%

The only reason Sales just surged is because nearly all of his base area (Bozeman and some outskirts/rural areas he represented in the State Senate) came in, but most of that is now already in and he’s underperforming in several other key counties. It’s going to be close, but still 1. Jacobsen 2. Johnson 3. Sales if I had to guess.