MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2 (user search)
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  MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2  (Read 4022 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: February 06, 2019, 07:06:46 PM »

MS will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1987 is comical.

Vitter vs. JBE: LA will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 2008 is comical.

Moore vs. Jones: AL will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1998 is comical.
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2019, 07:20:13 PM »

Given MS's inelasticity Hood ever leading by double digits is virtually impossible, if Hood wins it's a nailbiter.

Hood won by 10 points in 2015 of all years, when Bryant (R) won reelection by 34 points simultaneously. Doesn’t sound very #inelastic to me. Also, a Democratic sacrificial lamb came within 7 points of winning a federal race just two months ago.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2019, 07:31:01 PM »

Given MS's inelasticity Hood ever leading by double digits is virtually impossible, if Hood wins it's a nailbiter.

Hood won by 10 points in 2015 of all years, when Bryant (R) won reelection by 34 points simultaneously. Doesn’t sound very #inelastic to me. Also, a Democratic sacrificial lamb came within 7 points of winning a federal race just two months ago.

Mike Espy had a pro Democratic national environment and more importantly Cindy Hyde Smith's scandals(which Reeves probably won't have) and it still wasn't particularly close.

Hood will almost certainly benefit from a pro-Democratic environment as well. And while I agree that CHS's scandals hurt her, it’s not like Reeves is a particularly strong candidate TM either. Espy came within 7 points of winning a Senate race in what is supposedly the "most inelastic deep red" state in the country, he did much better than most people expected.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2019, 04:54:49 PM »

MS will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1987 is comical.

Vitter vs. JBE: LA will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 2008 is comical.

Moore vs. Jones: AL will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1998 is comical.

I never would have said that about LA, which despite being inelastic is still is much more flexible than AL/MS.

Um, Doug Jones didn't clear 50%, he only received 49.97% (and a rounded 50% is not enough to win with MS laws, see Musgrove and his 1999 post election battle), and this with a pedophile as his opponent and half of Republicans not voting. Thanks for proving my point.

1) What exactly makes the demographics of the Lousiana of 2019 more favorable for Democrats than MS/AL? Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the state less black than MS and less suburban than AL?

2) Okay, so a pro-choice Democrat won a Senate race in a Trump +28 (62%) Deep South state with 49.97% instead of 50%+1 of the vote? Welp, I guess that settles it, then. If only he had done .04% better, I’d be ready to call AL an elastic state. Actually, AL is even more inelastic than that, as Jones only won with 49.96559701049884% and not 49.97%!

3) I didn’t prove your point at all. If AL was as inelastic and partisan as people make it out to be, why did those Republicans who stayed home or voted for Jones, you know, care about candidate quality or the allegations in the first place? Why did they believe the women and not Moore?
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