I mean which way do people think those 12% undecided are gonna swing when Trump does a rally or two.
I do think that Atlas is deluding itself into think Bel Edwards has a better chance than he does - polarization tends to be a safe horse to bet on in the age of Trump
This really has become a handy buzzword to justify even the most absurd ratings, hasn’t it? JBE isn’t safe, but he’s not going to lose to any Republican just because of one Trump rally there (if it didn’t work in WV of all states, it’s not going to work in LA). Why did Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu win reelection comfortably if polarization is such an unstoppable force?
All those comfortably reelected incumbents have something in common. Do you know what it is?
Justice 2016, Bullock 2016, Kelly 2018, JBE 2015 (it’s not as if LA wasn’t "polarized" in 2015, especially under Obama), Jones 2017, Tester 2018, Manchin 2018, etc.
I’d also add that while McCaskill, Bredesen, Donnelly, and Heitkamp all lost, they outperformed Clinton by
a lot, certainly by more than they "should have" if polarization was truly at an all-time high.
