Sabato/Kyle Kondik: 2020 Senate landscape

[MT Treasurer]

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They also think AL is the most vulnerable 2020 seat, even more so than CO.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-how-2018-sets-up-2020/

Thoughts?

[MT Treasurer]

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Are they trolling god forbid?

Some people never learn.

[MT Treasurer]

I wonder who’s going to be the Dean Heller/Jon Tester of 2020?

[MT Treasurer]

>Colorado
>Tossup

Not surprising coming from the same pundits who go out of their way to overestimate CO and VA Republicans at every opportunity, but still ridiculous.

The fact that they still have NV as a toss up a month before an election that they all acknowledge will be good for Democrats should've clued you in.

[MT Treasurer]

LOL Michigan New Hampshire and Minnesota are not safe D. 2018 will be a great dem year but that doesn't mean 2020 will be. And bar a 400 EV Landslide we aren't winning Kentucky, Alabama, Louisiana etc.

New Hampshire would definitely become a toss-up if Chris Sununu runs.

Maybe in Atlas Republicans' fantasy world, but not IRL.

[MT Treasurer]

In most other cases, the incumbent starts out with an advantage. Likely R in KY (McConnell). We've seen the Democrats try and fail to take him down, but he remains deeply unpopular as he should. If for some reason he retires or a Republican beats him in the primary I think it becomes Safe R. Lean R in GA (Perdue), IA (Ernst), and NC (Tillis) with Tillis being the most vulnerable of the three. Lean D for NH (Shaheen), Likely D for MI (Peters), MN (Smith - assuming she wins), and VA (Warner). MI and MN can have the potential to become more competitive. Everybody else is safe or very close to safe.

This should be pretty reasonable right now.

I don’t see how McConnell is more vulnerable than Daines.

[MT Treasurer]

In most other cases, the incumbent starts out with an advantage. Likely R in KY (McConnell). We've seen the Democrats try and fail to take him down, but he remains deeply unpopular as he should. If for some reason he retires or a Republican beats him in the primary I think it becomes Safe R. Lean R in GA (Perdue), IA (Ernst), and NC (Tillis) with Tillis being the most vulnerable of the three. Lean D for NH (Shaheen), Likely D for MI (Peters), MN (Smith - assuming she wins), and VA (Warner). MI and MN can have the potential to become more competitive. Everybody else is safe or very close to safe.

This should be pretty reasonable right now.

I don’t see how McConnell is more vulnerable than Daines.

Bullock could put Montana into play. Otherwise, there aren't really that many strong challengers to take him on. Even with Bullock, I would say Lean R at least.

I actually see Daines as more vulnerable than McConnell. After all, Kentucky is among the states nicknamed « coal country » (as Kentucky is America’s third coal producing state just after Wyoming and West Virginia) and McConnell can take an advantage in this, notably by labeling his potential Democratic opponent as « anti-coal ».

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/coal-production-by-state.html

Literally anyone the Democrats put up in Montana is more likely to win than any Democrat in Kentucky. McConnell is going to clobber whatever "rising star" decides to run against him this time, but I’m sure people will move it to Toss-up once Amy McGrath or Andy Beshear jump into the race.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyway, these would be my preliminary ratings:

NH is Safe D with or without Sununu
ME is Toss-up if Collins loses the primary or retires, Likely/Safe R if not
MS is Toss-up if Espy wins the runoff this year

[MT Treasurer]

It’s weird how this forum is very bullish on red state Democrats' chances this year, but pessimistic about 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

Your insults aside, what I asked is a serious question. McConnell's approvals have been poor for years now, yet he continues to win re-election. He is far more unpopular than Trump.

He keeps winning reelection because the alternative is somehow even worse.