Objectively this race seems likely R, but it also seems like exactly the type of race that everyone assumes is safe early on then causes a shocker on election night. In other words, I can't shake the feeling that Hogan could very well be Hogan'd. Or at least gets a huge scare. He's hovering around 50%, it's still early, and Dems have yet to get a nominee and attempt to consolidate their base. Even if the wave nationwide is not as big as expected, Dem enthusiasm will be sky high in Maryland.
Of course it's also possible that Hogan unceremoniously crushes whoever his opponent is by double digits. But he has another big problem that Charlie Baker doesn't: a very large minority vote.
I agree with all of this, which is why I still think the race is a Tossup. It’s obvious that Hogan is in a much better position than Ehrlich was in 2006, but I’m not feeling confident about the chances of any Republican running statewide in MD this year. Not trusting the polls here, tbh.
